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January Snowstorm

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    Cork City(Southern Ireland)
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    Counting Snowflakes!

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  1. One thing always surprises me is those who look for cold even when it won't snow. I mean there's nothing to be gained by 4/5 C and cold rain. Surely it may as well be 13 and pleasant?! I get the whole seasonal 'feel' thing but in the end of the day snow is our love not cold rain. Regarding this evenings runs nothing much on offer right now but things can change quickly and those calling Christmas 10 days out is folly. Sunday at the earliest so still 2 days to hope for change
  2. As GP suggested though the azores high appears to be pulling West opening doors for a southerly tracking jet?
  3. Folks if that's not a toppler I don't know what is......potent with snow for some though. Looks like a reset then going forward but decent outlook hard to attain
  4. I don't agree as he did say it would turn markedly colder by Thursday and interestingly showed a trough coming down from the North. It's a potent 2 day toppler though as we know further potential afterwards
  5. I wouldn't call it fascinating myself more a synoptic mess. The coldest uppers evaporate and we are left with cold rain...that azores high seems ever present and more than just a nuisance
  6. Very confused after that run. Heights looked very very fragile yet seem enough to slide the low southeast. It doesn't look a plausible run to me but the great news is all roads appear to lead to cold!!! The gfs certainly leading the way this year so far All in all a great days model watching. See you all at 4am😅😅
  7. We should be well versed at this stage on how the UK and Ireland can find a route to mild even when all roads say cold. The last few days have been disappointing and chasing snow on these shores can be heart wrenching at times. Saying that our obsession with snow is pbly borne out by the fact that it really is like the holy grail lol The background signals are all good for December and it's only a matter of time before the models pick up on it. As we know they have a pattern of over correcting when a change is picked up.
  8. All a bit fragile on the 18z Great to look at but years of experience tells me where it can go wrong.... One thing that's gaining momentum is very cold uppers directly to our North.....proper cold!
  9. The change in output today really began 3-4 days ago. Subtle changes then started to nudge everything into FI with the key 5-7 day time frame being downgraded. Where to from here, 1) The blocking on offer really is a pattern change with Northern latitude blocking taking a strong foothold over the next week or so. Result cold and snow. 2) The blocking on offer slowly evaporating (mainly caused by a delay in the cold pooling over arctic) and business as normal with the pv setting up shop in its usual home. Result mild and wet. Answers on a postcard.......either way the next week should reveal a lot about where we are heading
  10. It's always been the same. The cold rampers get protected to up cold all they like and jump on anyone looking to make some valid points that may mean a milder outcome. Imo We would have a far better forum if the cold rampers were reigned in just a tad
  11. There was plenty evidence last night that future locked in cold was in doubt. The mid range had changed where the Atlantic high rather than retrogressing towards Iceland was staying in situ and energy was spilling over the high. Also the ecm from last night had the coldest uppers washing out by Friday so what's happened thus afternoon is no surprise to me. Yes a great start to Winter with oodles of potential going fwd but no great potential of widespread snowfall for the majority. I think the form horse is for the Atlantic to usher in milder air into week 2 with potential blocking again later in December
  12. Certainly for my area and the West in general it looks cold and frosty with very little ppn. ......frost likely to persist through the day by mid week. I understand why you guys in UK are excited being closer to the low pressure
  13. I see things rather differently this morning. Mid range has energy going over the top and we're left with milder air steadily moving down over us. Perhaps there is a trend for a rather strong Greenland high in FI but sure isn't that purely fantasy land at the moment
  14. I think I see a band of sleet/snow passing over the south of Ireland tomorrow afternoon. Could it be a case that js grabs all the snow lol
  15. It's 2010 all over again really IF it transpires. And that was a once in 40 year event. From someone who's well into their 40s take it from me cold snowy spells in November are like hens teeth....Indeed I don't remember one other than 2010
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