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January Snowstorm

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    Cork City(Southern Ireland)
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    Counting Snowflakes!

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  1. We've seen it a hundred times and should be no surprise to experienced members. All decent cold spells over the last 10 years had proper heights to our North! Deep yellows not just light blues..
  2. Well the flimsy block on the 12z is now weaker again. We've seen this so many times before where the block isn't as strong once the charts move into the reliable....I just can't see a proper cold spell coming without proper blocking to our North. I'm not saying the 18z run had it right rather experience tells me all the days charts were actually not as promising as they first appeared.
  3. The beeb are certainly on board with their weekly forecast mentioning it turning 'quite wintry with snow' Though imo their forecast isn't quite as reliable as when they used the Met Office. As for the models this cold spell has come out of the blue a little bit. Exciting times and at complete odds with most of the long range forecasts!! Of course time will tell if these charts move into the reliable
  4. For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame. As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess
  5. @Steve Murr While your thoughts on gfs are very clear Steve it's worth keeping in mind the other models also have their flaws. For Example ECM almost always over amplifies beyond 192 hours. How many times has the ECM shown a full blown Greeny high at 240hours only for it to be blown away in closer timeframes. As for the ukmo it's 144 chart was always known to be a bit fickle. Anyways back to the charts this evening and baby steps starting to show up for a colder outlook in a weeks time or so..
  6. Most will end up posting where the majority are reading so I think one thread is sufficient. I do hate the way the cold bias is rampant on the model thread at times. Anyone trying to post some realistic thoughts is almost mugged if they don't say cold! In my view rather than too many posting I think some of the pro's have left because of the cold bias that exists. You need only look at the last 7 days to see this..A bog standard frosty high being ramped up beyond realistic forecasts
  7. For me there's a trend the last few years of height rises in and around Greenland during late Autumn. Quite likely to be caused by the Summer melt etc. Of course quite like last year this has very little bearing on Winter proper. Indeed I think November last year was colder than any of the Winter months (over here anyway) The same happening again is possible I guess. Time will tell but for now a zonal reset of sorts looks the favoured option. (Zonal as in the pv setting up over Greenland) How long it will last is anyone's guess.
  8. While the models have indeed upgraded it's worth keeping in mind that heights over Greenland don't really persist beyond 24hours. So the outlook is a cold one with perhaps frost persisting though next Sunday/Monday. But widespread snow is not showing yet anyway. Saying that it's been a different Autumn with temps rarely exceeding 10C over the last 3 weeks. So confidence is rightly high as we move into Winter proper!!
  9. Any news on when the Net weather winter forecast will be issued?
  10. As I said a few days back the Icon is quite often a trend setter for the ECM. Here's hoping we get a decent set of 12's now rolling!!
  11. Going purely on the evening runs you would have to say this mornings gfs run was on to something and sniffed out a weaker Greenland high before the others Of course it might still be proven wrong but as I said earlier when the big 3 models disagree the halfway house often wins out.
  12. The ECM at 144hrs has more in common with the gfs than ukmo. Let's see how the rest of the run plays out
  13. Often (in fact nearly every time) rather than one model being right or wrong we get a merging of both ideas and a halfway house. This looks to be the case this evening with the 06z gfs being incorrect overall but correct in spotting a trend of the Greenland high being weaker (at least initially) For me the UKMO is looking cold but what happens after that is where our interest lies... Over to the ecm which will resolve nothing but at least gives us a trend for the evening!
  14. Well I'm someone who usually champions the gfs cause but not so sure of late. I think the gfs upgrade is not performing so well tbh. Saying that I think every model fails at times and I don't think you could bet your mortgage on the others either!! So it's jury out until the 12z's Right then back to arguing until then lol
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