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January Snowstorm

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  1. And at 240hrs the ecm has lost all heights to our North. Bitterly cold over England though with ice day likely. Scope for upgrades later.....We need them
  2. ECM and GFS are both slight downgrades on last night with the uppers suggesting a cold spell rather than a severe spell in the reliable frame to Wednesday. GFS then goes on to move the high just north of UK. Cold but dry for most. Plenty time for upgrades (maybe ecm will show this in its latter stage) but for now nothing beast from East like!
  3. The ecm has shown a different outcome at 216hrs for every run. A lot of them showing cold solutions but completely different routes in getting there. I don't see how that tells us to have complete confidence in it being right this morning. You would imagine at least one model would support it. Not saying it's wron just maybe caution is advised until models converge on the way forward
  4. It's one run and completely different to its previous run so here's hoping but I wouldn't bet on it
  5. As I mentioned a few days ago the lack of proper heights to our North meant caution was needed. And so it appears to be the case as the models are all over the place and none show proper heights to our North (Inc ecm)
  6. That ECM mean really is spectacular. GFS really is rubbish lately
  7. You are correct in what you say but the gfs wasn't really on board with any of its runs today and bear in mind the Ukmo only goes to 144hrs. The only really good run today was the ecm this morning. The likes of myself, teits, crewecold have been on here since the birth of the forum many many years ago. If we are negative there's a reason other than a wind up. I'd be a rich man if I bet a pound for every time I've seen models move to the middle ground scenario and this one looks like another. I've heard mentioned today awesome charts......go back to 1st March last year and check the difference
  8. I would have to say the ECM mean does look good at 240 hrs. ..However higher heights to the North would be welcome
  9. For me across all models (awaiting ecm) there's no proper heights to our North. I know weaker heights can sometimes deliver but in general a proper cold spell needs either a strong Greenland or Scandinavian high. Even on the morning runs a proper analysis for me was that things could go wrong and it was marginal. Also we've been mentioning the 20th January for a while now as the starting point yet that date is in view now and it ain't great. Over to the ECM to save the day. @nick sussex no shares in GFS Nick but weren't you saying about 2 weeks ago that the ECM was very poor this season?
  10. Ukmo following the gfs trend of the 06z run of building heights to our Northwest. A Greenland high looks the way forward to me and if do fair play to gfs for the first model to spot a trend here!!
  11. What's great to see is the cold attacking from both the West and East. The slither of mild that likes to base itself over UK /IRE is dissapating quickly. The holy grail is within striking distance. Even Cork sees sleet PS I really like teits comment about years of this forum guiding him to remain cautious. My thoughts exactly a bit of debate of where things can go wrong is healthy imo
  12. The 06z gfs is a carbon copy of the ec46 with our Atlantic high moving into Greenland. Preferred option for me over the ecm as it would lock in the cold properly!! Slider lows no thanks. Let's have a Greenland high please Doesn't quite make it but a good trend
  13. It's definitely a much improved ecm this morning with quite a lot of potential going forward. I personally would prefer to see heights more profound to our North but this route could lead to a snowier outcome!!
  14. Perhaps for your location We got a foot of snow here last March from the last SSW
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