Chris Lea-Alex

I would say that you called it!

Completely obscured by trees but I'm facing that essex cell from Bromley. I hope someone from the A12 corridor has hail footage

West Midlands 1 South East 0

I feel like it has come six hours too late. Looks good on sat 24 too

Hi there. Granted, my knowledge of weather limits me to hunches, but I fancy Sunday evening. The new savoir, the GFS is giving the -2s and the jet stream will be back. Discuss

In terms of UK potential, is there anything still on? Estofex mentions a Warm Air Advection that apparently will do something for us: Towards the night, strong WAA regime will support widespread storm initiation and one or two systems will cross S UK and BENELUX. Does it look like this has happened yet? The cells below in Jersey look tasty; might those be elevated?

From what I've read of it seems that our Atlantic dross and the Continental Plume are going to have a big game of tug of war tomorrow afternoon in France. Estofex seem to be implying that the Plume will momentarily... okay rubbish analogy, that one or two elevated storms will slip through overnight. Sounds like a repeat of Wednesday night

Hnmmm. Moderate rain all the way!

It's just showing a black screen for me. But I am using android

I think I know what you mean from 2019, I'm Another Kent Clipper by the way (lost the login). The action stayed anchored to the French coast whilst a rapid expansion of drizzle ballooned over the uk. Similar situation last night but with a bit of 24th June 2019 thrown in. I agree that if MCS #1 hadn't made it across we'd be in a different situation

That was definitely the case during the second wave of 'storms' when I was near Sittingbourne. I'll jump into fantasy science now: Might it be that rain is negatively charged along with the majority lightning strikes? Maybe the ground's positive charge gets pushed up towards the negative cloud base by the unstable air in the rain-free areas?

What I noticed from last night was that the lightning did not want to strike through the rain. Here's some footage of last night's storms: YouCut_20210617_113144295.mp4

I'm the blue dot inside that hook echo thing. Wet and windy

Might have to sleep early....

What we do know for sure is that Brighton is dead centre of Convective Weather's moderate zone

I really wish Doggerland could be drained. I would move there tomorrow!

Noo, I don't want him to jinx it lol. MDT will equate to moderate dynamic rain

Is it me, or is this the beginning of an eastwards shift modelwise? Hopefully it won't be in the north sea by Wednesday

Hey Google. Driving directions to minus five please

North Yorkshire seems to have become the uk equivalent of the great plains over the last couple years. I'm not jealous. Hull is getting a very haily looking radar signature now too

Might this be the dry intrusion I'm looking at or is it just wishful thinking?

Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 06 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 07 Jun 2021 ISSUED 06:14 UTC Sun 06 Jun 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan A weakening frontal boundary will drift slowly northeastwards across Britain on Sunday, associated with moist low-levels and patchy rain. Through the day diurnal heating and resultant convective overturning will likely cause initially extensive cloud to gradually thin and break and turn increasingly convective in nature with time. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will also drift slowly northeastwards through the day, the associated cold pocket aloft aiding to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates and increase instability - with scope for 300-600 J/kg CAPE in places. The net result is initial patchy rain will translate to scattered heavy showers by the afternoon and evening hours, particularly focussed along convergence boundaries (sea breeze and peninsula) and orographic forcing (especially Wales). A marked dry intrusion aloft will spread gradually northeastwards with time, although the exact shape/timing varies between model guidance and this may have some impact on highlighting specific areas with the best lightning potential. In theory, the leading edge of this dry intrusion holds the best potential, as ultimately the following substantial subsidence aloft will tend to restrict the depth of convection. Therefore a favourable overlap of low-level forced ascent and leading edge of dry intrusion will be key for identifying region(s) with potential for deepest convection / lightning potential. Either way, numerous showers are likely to develop, but only a few may produce some sporadic lightning. Given light winds, shear in the low-levels is relatively weak and so many showers will tend to be of pulse-type variety - however, if deep convection can grow tall enough to utilise the stronger mid-level flow, then these may be able to last longer and produce some hail. The very moist low-level environment (dewpoints of 14-15C) and associated low cloud bases suggests at least the potential for a few funnel clouds or weak tornado, especially near convergence boundaries. Showers may continue to develop well into the evening hours before a gradual decay overnight.

Cancel your plans Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

I feel like we as a nation have been robbed of the first plume destabilisation event. Today is a wet mess

I think you spoke too soon haha. We're all empty handed today