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Chris Lea-Alex

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Everything posted by Chris Lea-Alex

  1. Yep. I'm half way up the A3 on my way home now, I'm just gonna pretend it's not happening
  2. So the anvil crawlers are out. Does that signal the end of round 1? I'm on the A21 and I'm going on a theta W hunch
  3. The pattern of activity in those images looks depressingly familiar. Frequent lightning anchored to the French coast and a rapid northwood expansion of light convective rain across southern England. @ancientsolar there is a marginal possibility of some homegrown action: Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
  4. I took a look at the dying cell in surrey. And turned back. I hope tomorrow and Friday are eventful as I'll be off from work
  5. @Alderc @staplehurst Any thoughts on how it compares to northern Ireland right now? It's become very interesting over there:
  6. Ok so some old towers really could do with being demolished in Croydon. Except for the multistory I'm standing on looking west.
  7. Also, surprisingly, the A45 between Northampton (M1) and Thrapston (A14) is a very fast road.
  8. I've noticed today that the convective clouds are leaning to one side. My picture doesn't show it well, but is it in any way advantageous for them to lean?
  9. An estofex and a day 2 for tomorrow. I'm not feeling it, not even for rain but I like a surprise Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021 ISSUED 20:46 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridging generally dominates through Monday, however an upper trough will slide down the North Sea, the western edge passing close to East Anglia and SE England during the morning. The phasing of this feature is faster than peak daytime heating, but the associated cooling aloft may provide a slightly more favourable thermodynamic profile than was the case on Sunday. In either case, diurnal heating will yield substantial SBCAPE (>1,000 J/kg), however forecast profiles are rather dry once again with evidence of some warm noses, and this casts uncertainty as to how tall convective cloud may be able to grow. Initiation will likely be strongly tied to low-level convergence and orographic forcing. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will result in fairly high cloud bases, but if convection is able to grow tall enough it may be able to utilise slightly stronger northwesterly flow aloft. For the most part, any showers that do develop will probably struggle to maintain themselves for any length of time - with the exception of SE England where the environment overall appears slightly more favourable for deeper convection and therefore potential for a few lightning strikes. Given the timing of the upper trough passage, this may be more of an afternoon event than an evening one. If a couple of heavy showers or thunderstorms develop, local flash flooding could be a concern. A SLGT may be introduced if confidence increases. Showers may continue to develop over the Midlands towards the northern Home Counties during the overnight period.
  10. I'm certainly not a forecaster, but this is my gut too. I wasn't planning on even going on the convective weather website until Thursday. Even when there are triggers, we don't do well for storms
  11. So it kicks off in south London whilst I'm working. Fantastic! Looks to be getting organised too
  12. It's been a really disappointing year for me. I'm not sure where the action is going to come from at this point. 2020 may have had an active August but it was a pit pulsey and disorganised. I kinda feel ready to look towards 2022 and hope for a dirty big plume
  13. I know that today is more capped than an American basketball team - but the convection is coming along very nicely. South London
  14. I can't believe how much lightning has been striking up north. Admittedly disorganised and sporadic but, oh my, there's been round after round of presumably photogenic discreet cells. Meanwhile, below the waist of London over the last three years, there's a reliance on French imports that a person can never be east enough for without a boat. Bring on the Theta W tongues!
  15. Is there any kind of discussion / study etc on this because, whenever I've gone driving after a plume 'event' or something, the rain seems to calm down the lightning, or at least keep it in the clouds. I don't know my weather, but this is what I've been noticing so far when out in it. It could be coincidental of course, I have an open mind
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