Chris Lea-Alex

36.7 Gravesend, Kent

I think we did in August 2020 if I rightly recall. +30c temps, 2000-3000 cape, explosive pulse storms in the early evening. Sadly they died off quickly because of the capped environment. I could be mixing up my summers though

Scud

I will say that the elongated initially electrified mass that formed near Blackpool has been quite well organised and is still ambling up the country 5 hours later. A bit more shear and who knows what kind of a day we could have had...

Scud

These words alone are more entertaining than the safely distant 10-15 CGs I observed last night from a multistorey car park in Bromley.

The last couple of years the MCSs of the south east have organised themselves into broken lines that dissappear and resurface at will. Impossible to predict where to be especially when the lightning is distributed across such narrow channels. We need our storms to maintain the big round blob shape that have when they develop in the continent

It seems to be weakening though. Maybe I'll give some more time haha

You had me at DLS

I'm sorry. I am concerned about later today

Wow! Going crazy in Bromley 1467267794_VID_20220218_1009132.mp4

So if I combine Dan's slight with Estofex's 1, and Met Office's yellow, we have an agreeance of South and Mid Wales and Exmoor. Good luck to those in with a convective sniff

You had me at deep layer shear!

Confidence has increased regarding tomorrow's PVA lobe / theta-W mashup: Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Sep 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Sep 2021 ISSUED 20:56 UTC Mon 06 Sep 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan An upper ridge initially over the UK/Ireland on Tuesday will slowly weaken and retreat eastwards, as an upper low west of Iberia lifts northwards. On the forward side, strengthening southeasterly flow aloft will encourage advection of a relatively high Theta-W tongue northwestwards during the overnight hours from France towards western English Channel / SW England / Celtic Sea / southern Ireland. With cooling aloft and some PVA as the upper low approaches, there is scope for some elevated deep convection to develop atop an elevated mixed layer in a rather narrow zone / instability axis that will shift northeastwards through the night. The instability axis is likely to move northwards at a reasonable pace across Ireland, but could remained anchored near or to the west of the Channel Islands during this period of interest. Forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE from parcels lifted above the EML, with strong mid/upper flow in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates - therefore, any deep convection that can develop has the potential to produce some very frequent lightning, but the biggest uncertainty is over the number of showers/thunderstorms that develop, and therefore coverage of lightning. Either way, in a broad sense there is scope for some elevated showers or thunderstorms to develop rather randomly within this zone through Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. A blend of model guidance would imply the greatest activity may remain offshore over the Celtic Sea approaching southern Ireland, at least initially, with perhaps an uptick late in the night towards SW England and the Channel Islands further down the instability axis. Given the potential for some locally rather active thunderstorms, if confidence on specific areas increases a MDT may be introduced. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

No goodies from this one sadly