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Chris Lea-Alex

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  1. Confidence has increased regarding tomorrow's PVA lobe / theta-W mashup: Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Sep 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Sep 2021 ISSUED 20:56 UTC Mon 06 Sep 2021 ISSUED BY: Dan An upper ridge initially over the UK/Ireland on Tuesday will slowly weaken and retreat eastwards, as an upper low west of Iberia lifts northwards. On the forward side, strengthening southeasterly flow aloft will encourage advection of a relatively high Theta-W tongue northwestwards during the overnight hours from France towards western English Channel / SW England / Celtic Sea / southern Ireland. With cooling aloft and some PVA as the upper low approaches, there is scope for some elevated deep convection to develop atop an elevated mixed layer in a rather narrow zone / instability axis that will shift northeastwards through the night. The instability axis is likely to move northwards at a reasonable pace across Ireland, but could remained anchored near or to the west of the Channel Islands during this period of interest. Forecast profiles yield substantial CAPE from parcels lifted above the EML, with strong mid/upper flow in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates - therefore, any deep convection that can develop has the potential to produce some very frequent lightning, but the biggest uncertainty is over the number of showers/thunderstorms that develop, and therefore coverage of lightning. Either way, in a broad sense there is scope for some elevated showers or thunderstorms to develop rather randomly within this zone through Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday. A blend of model guidance would imply the greatest activity may remain offshore over the Celtic Sea approaching southern Ireland, at least initially, with perhaps an uptick late in the night towards SW England and the Channel Islands further down the instability axis. Given the potential for some locally rather active thunderstorms, if confidence on specific areas increases a MDT may be introduced. Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
  2. Here was a dying cell from Croydon. Gotta take what I can now it's August...
  3. Yep. I'm half way up the A3 on my way home now, I'm just gonna pretend it's not happening
  4. So the anvil crawlers are out. Does that signal the end of round 1? I'm on the A21 and I'm going on a theta W hunch
  5. The pattern of activity in those images looks depressingly familiar. Frequent lightning anchored to the French coast and a rapid northwood expansion of light convective rain across southern England. @ancientsolar there is a marginal possibility of some homegrown action: Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
  6. I took a look at the dying cell in surrey. And turned back. I hope tomorrow and Friday are eventful as I'll be off from work
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