ghoneym

Not an analogue for what you ask @bluearmy but an interesting few diagrams and charts from what I think is a similar set of circumstances. The following table relates to temperatures from the NINO 3.4 region and as you can see in 2001from December through to March the weakening La nina signal. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Now looking through some of the historical MJO charts I found this one for Jan - Mar from 2001 similarities in the phasing, maybe not amplitude but tails away towards COD from 7 into 8, similar to what we are seeing forecast for the current MJO. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ So just for a bit of reference I dug out the anomaly UK maps for months Feb and March of 2001. You can make your own mind up.... https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts Also found this table which was developed last year and although needs some development (admits in article) may be of reference for some. (lost the link, computer crashed )

I wanted to ask the Start experts on here if there is any correlation between the Antarctic stratosphere conditions and the Artic stratosphere conditions? From what I can see from the conditions back to the 17th of January the Antarctic Stratosphere is very organised and entered over the pole, down below the antarctic jet stream appears strong zonal. Move forward in time over 2 weeks and the stratosphere winds almost disappear completely from the Antarctic land / ice mass and seem to move towards the equatorial regions and strengthen there. The jet stream weakens and starts to meander. As this all happens you can see the Artic Stratosphere winds start to buckle presummably due to them also being dragged toward the equator due to atmospheric momentum strengthening the equatorial winds? Are these conditions typical for a Southern Hemisphere at this period of the year? Images below are for the 17th of January then the 24th, then the current day and lastly the projected conditions for the 4th of February Again the 17th of January, then the current day and then the projected conditions for the 4th of Feb And same again for these images.

Some interesting Gifs for your viewing pleasure

Some Japanese mountain torque ?

Oops should have double checked b4 posting sorry for the misleading chart, meteociel spewed that out earlier, I never checked the date...doh

A chart 48 hours from now, 850 temps if anyone needs a calm me down after that run! phew! FI epicness

Very similar GFS / UKMO at + 120

Just for reference the first image below is the current MJO state and forecast and then below that, what the actual MJO track was in Jan through to March in 1978. I can see a lot of similarities taking shape. As you say though there are many other factors at play which would need to fall into place to achieve on the ground what was experienced in Feb 1978.

Simply stunning

@comet excellent research which may shed some light on the subject.

Should be all snow looking at current temps, central belt gone get pummeled

Managed to scrape together enough of the white stuff to make the worlds skinniest snowman!

Text says AMBER warning for central tayside and Fife yet the graphic shows it a no warning lol, think somebodies been on the drink over at the MetO

Snowing (heavy) in Leven / Fife 60m above sea level

As above in Davids post regarding La Nina conditions and Higher sea surface temperatures, I Thought these GFS depictions of real time data really help visualise whats going on. You can easily see the La Nina state conditions in play forcing the warm waters back towards Australia / Indonesia. Below are the Sea surface temperature anomaly 3D views, you can easily spot the Gulf Stream meandering from the Florida coast, my understanding is that this typically migrates all the way to the eastern side of Iceland before diving (thermocline) and working its way in a reverse motion. Is it typical to be so far south and east in the Atlantic at this time of year with low Angular momentum? If so the statements in your post above makes sence . "The Coriolis force moves fluids (and air flows) with poleward movements" - "Atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air (in conjunction with ocean currents) is how thermal energy is redistributed on the surface of the Earth" It could also be that the amount of melting ice flowing into the North Atlantic from Greenland / the artic is playing havoc with the thermocline cycle, again depicted well on the anomaly 3D image above. This would cause the Gulf Stream to be held back further south and east of its original destination. From what I have read about this, colder UK winters will be experienced due to the latent warmth of the Gulf Stream no longer available to "tap" into. Sounds like a coldie's dream this climate change malarky Another Question which I think I already know the answer to, is the Gulf Stream a true teleconnection and one which hasn't really been covered yet or regularly mentioned on netweather forums or is it simply a result of other teleconnections?

Of course...

Sunday. At surface level a good depiction I think of the milder / windy / precipitation loaded front pushing in from the west and moving North as it makes landfall over the UK squeezing any cold surface temperatures left down South in a North and East direction. Precipitation in the form of snow would be exposed to most of Scotland for a time before turning to mush at lower elevations their also.

Would I be. correct in saying that MJO phase 4 as depicted in the diagram below is where we are at on the current MJO cycle? And if so when looking at this global wind map the North / west side of Australia would depict what the MJO actually looks like in terms of wind patterns and intensity ( low intensity as depicted on the phase diagram, closer to the centre)? https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.82,19.80,645. - link to live animated version of the global wind patterns Assuming all of the above is correct then when / if we move in to phase 7/8 on the MJO cycle I would assume that the MJO would intensify due to what is currently being shown in the Northern hemisphere around phase 7/8 ? (If said northern hemisphere pattern still looked this way) Circled in black on the GFS NH 500mb heights chart is what I think the model is spewing out as the result of the MJO in phase 7/8 ? Then finally if all of the above is correct (again ) we potentially achieve higher than normal heights in Northern Europe / Scandinavia, why? Clearly a lot of assumptions here, I am trying to grasp visualy what teleconnections would look like in a more simplistic way, or a way I can understand. Frictional and mountain torques / angular momentums etc I can focus on later I suppose

Sat 24 forecast orange = snow, looks to get as far north St Andrews (will miss Brought Ferry of course)

Some current temps

Broken down trucks on the M74 from what I've read and can't get recovery to them, absolout nightmare out there on the roads by the look of it, gritters earning there crust tonight that's for sure!

Night shift. Dalgety Bay. Radar watching. Had an inch and a half in the last hour, just hope my handover makes it in the morning from falkirk ? can't upload pic for some reason, will do when i can. In terms of the low incoming I think it's pretty much just been watered down to gusty breeze pretty much

Some current temps round and bout.

Really cool late afternoon sky here with a variety of clouds on show ??