Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

The Weather Dragon

Members (restricted)
  • Posts

    289
  • Joined

Everything posted by The Weather Dragon

  1. come on guys lets get realistic - tone down the ramping - have we not learned anything - especially this winter
  2. Some tasty looking charts to view in FI -need to get these into T120z - then we can really enjoy them
  3. I think your clutching at straws there tbh - way off the mark - we need to see what mid/late feb brings
  4. It's a phrase to describe a more localised spell of zonality - with full zonal conditions never quite developing.
  5. I'm not going to mention it ..there is however a smell of change in the air - looking at tonight's output - ECM next
  6. It's a web phrase i'm afraid - that said all phrases have to begin life somewhere ! (a la - murr sausage)
  7. It's a phrase to describe a more localised spell of zonality - with full zonal conditions never quite developing - pressure is strong over europe - maybe stronger than models can determine - we need this pattern to break and for lows to dive into europe - increasing the chances of pressure rises following on behind.
  8. 06z GFS continues with the concept of loco-zonal with troughing unable to make inroads into europe. We are thus left in a quasi atlantic airmass. We need troughing to dive into west/west central europe and then we are very much game on. With loco-zonal please expect short term suprises. No double digits today - delays inevitable. Enjoy !
  9. Current cross model argreement - trending to something called loco-zonal - has anyone heard of this phrase to describe the current and projected synoptical situation - loco-zonal
  10. GFS 12z continues to take us loco-zonal next week with the lows never really making into continental europe - thanks to the blocking high - not great for us tbh
  11. Where are the doom mongerers tonight I wonder ? - the weather will do as it pleases - not as models or background signals dictate - this is mother nature after all !
  12. Absolutely pointless commenting on specifics - especially on an ECM 240 - better to pick up on more general trends
  13. hopefully the trend of a very southerly tracking jet stream will continue - a pattern change that may allow higher latitude blocking
  14. mentioning 'game over' 100% post removal guaranteed. I meant game over for any undercut or retrogression of current block. Let's see where we end up after this unsettled spell. I can see another euro high tbh
  15. In all my 17 or so years of winter model watching this has to be up there with the most benign/boring/tedious ever - sick of it now tbh - roll on spring/summer - rant over !
  16. Well the models produce proper cold today 2C max - feels like winter - much better than the last transient northerly attempt
  17. Spot on pal - the met do give the caveat of low probability cold and snow in their extended so as always there is a 'get out clause'
  18. Listen folks - the models were suggesting a return to atlantic w/sw weather early next week - with some runs having deep lows centred over the UK - it ain't gonna happen - what the chance that they haven't got a firm handle on later next week - must be a fair probability. The downside is we are eating up precious wintertime with benign weather - although on the positive side at least it's dry !
  19. Only a few days ago models were predicting the atlantics return with SW wind and rain for my location (W Wales) by next Tuesday 24th - this has now been delayed until at least next Friday 27th and even then it is a slow and painful process - look at atlantic Jet almost vertical north to south !!
  20. ECM 00z progression from 168-192 looks flawed - reasonable cross model agreement at 144 - UKMO good at 144
×
×
  • Create New...