The Weather Dragon
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Posts posted by The Weather Dragon
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We appear to be clutching at straws - cold incoming for March - sadly to late for majority of the UK
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A pattern change to a cold polar maritime flow is now looking highly likely - and with the trough dropping into Europe the models are trying to decide what happens thereafter- interesting times !
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ECM goes flat overnight & GFS has got the wobbles - I feel a mobile westerly festive period is the greater probability considering current model output - With a front loader we’ll be looking for some fun and games in the first half of January
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looks like a pull on the atlantic is a given. I don’t think that cold will be too far away though - the models and the pros do indicate this ?
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The models have been consistent - a brief northwesterly followed by colder cyclonic conditions - far too marginal for widespread lowland snow - and we stay like this through next week followed by another weekend northerly - really good modelling imho.
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Looks like yet another northerly next weekend - that must be about the 5th in a row now - amazing pattern!
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Taking the current big 3 model output into account - it’s going to get colder - Snow and ice likely for Northern and upland areas. Marginal for the rest of us with a mixture or rain,sleet & snow. No sign of a nationwide freeze in the reliable timeframe - fingers crossed for later into December and early January
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Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.
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Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.
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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Looking at UKMO extended most of the UK looks settled with high-pressure building in the far south might get some chillier winds though
Still appears to be rather cold - cold easterly for the south in particular.
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The models are showing a block to the east and the atlantic to the west.
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What has changed across all models over the last few days is the vigorous artic high pushing south and west and forcing the main block westwards has been tempered. However plenty of time for changes and the second half of february could yet be interesting.
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In general very pleasing model output this morning. All 3 main models show some continental influence next week. As TEITS mentions Scandinavian heights are a difficult concept for the models - is the atlantic overplayed - probably
The 'fly in the ointment' as in previous let downs may be the azores high - if we can send that packing we could be in for a lengthier spell of below average temperatures - one to watch over the next few days.
In conclusion - plenty to be optimistic about. The winter champion UKMET is with us for now - this is the model to watch. Enjoy !
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regarding model confidence this winter i tend to go in this order
UKMET, GFS/GEM, ECM
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The overall trend with the current output is a phasing of the azores high with the scandinavian high and then a gradual sinking of the scandi high - giving us a cool SE flow - not what we want - the real interest is in the 10/12 day period following this initial easterly attempt.
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The models are currently showing a large blocking high pressure area to our east and low pressure associated with a strong canadian lobe of the polar vortex to our west. The UK looks likely to be stuck (as we often are) in a battleground situation where there are many possible outcomes - a very dynamic situation to be carefully monitored.
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The models are struggling to pin down the track of fridays low - also possibilities of a potential storm for Sunday.
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The pub run gives us a slap in the face - it says 'get real' - fridays synoptics not sorted yet - never mind next week - expect a further dose of grounding tomorrow
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2 minutes ago, snowray said:
Yup, even at D10, its all over bar the shouting on this run.
Great run.....for Italy and Greece again, not us.
Just as well its just the pub run.
Patterns
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Anyway in the shorter (sensible) term - still much uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of Fridays potential storm - could be quite significant for parts of the south/south west
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4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:
I can see it all vanishing and the UK stuck with gloom, it's been the pattern all winter, despite what the models promise.
Your spot on there mate - most sensible post all evening - follow the pattern
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Think that we are going COL here tbh
No blocking over greenland - no severe spell
Canadian PV to strong
This is going to let you down - BIG time !
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13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
It's coming...
nowhere near !
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There is a danger of previously mentioned loco zonal conditions persisting if we don't get an undercut - not good !
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Just this minute watched a news article on BBC News 24 - regarding SSW - Met O representative indicated very high probability of Easterlies by next Monday and MOGREPS model was mentioned - sounded like MET O are very confident - also mentioned that QTR is yet to become established in freeview models - there is hope ?