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The Weather Dragon

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    Pembrokeshire
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    Snow

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  1. Just this minute watched a news article on BBC News 24 - regarding SSW - Met O representative indicated very high probability of Easterlies by next Monday and MOGREPS model was mentioned - sounded like MET O are very confident - also mentioned that QTR is yet to become established in freeview models - there is hope ?
  2. We appear to be clutching at straws - cold incoming for March - sadly to late for majority of the UK
  3. A pattern change to a cold polar maritime flow is now looking highly likely - and with the trough dropping into Europe the models are trying to decide what happens thereafter- interesting times !
  4. ECM goes flat overnight & GFS has got the wobbles - I feel a mobile westerly festive period is the greater probability considering current model output - With a front loader we’ll be looking for some fun and games in the first half of January
  5. looks like a pull on the atlantic is a given. I don’t think that cold will be too far away though - the models and the pros do indicate this ?
  6. The models have been consistent - a brief northwesterly followed by colder cyclonic conditions - far too marginal for widespread lowland snow - and we stay like this through next week followed by another weekend northerly - really good modelling imho.
  7. Looks like yet another northerly next weekend - that must be about the 5th in a row now - amazing pattern!
  8. Taking the current big 3 model output into account - it’s going to get colder - Snow and ice likely for Northern and upland areas. Marginal for the rest of us with a mixture or rain,sleet & snow. No sign of a nationwide freeze in the reliable timeframe - fingers crossed for later into December and early January
  9. Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.
  10. Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell.
  11. In all my 17 or so years of winter model watching this has to be up there with the most benign/boring/tedious ever - sick of it now tbh - roll on spring/summer - rant over !
  12. What a pathetic attempt at an easterly - grey and cold - this however is the scenario with most winter easterlies. ECM leads us up the garden path - GFS more pragmatic - what will it take to get some 80's style winters in the bag !
  13. I must admit - there's been an improvement for cold The improvements are based around a seperate blocking HP cell forming around SW Iceland Will be monitoring this closely over the coming runs
  14. This is what we need to see for prolonged nationwide snow & cold
  15. Although it was nice to look at the GFS 06z op was a significant cold outlier after 3rd Feb Expect changes on the 12z
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