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ArHu3

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  1. ArHu3
    First updates coming in from around GFS 4, 10, 16, 22 Ecmwf 6 and 18 Ukmo and Gem iirc. 3:30 15:30 UTC
  2. ArHu3
    I wonder how this eruption will change the medium to long range forecast, surely a shock wave this big would have a huge impact tonga btw? Any news From
  3. ArHu3
    More snow falling today than March 2018 to January 2021 combined but just as much lying on the ground and cycling to work felt colder and more miserable today @+2C than it did in February @-8C
  4. ArHu3
    I've definitely seen more white Easters than Christmases but with the exception of 2013 snow in March usually disappears quickly.
  5. ArHu3
    First time since februari 2012 we can skate here in the Netherlands
  6. ArHu3
  7. ArHu3
    1979 it is not but I'm happy with what we've got, finally after 8 years it's probably cold again
  8. ArHu3
    keep track of this guys twitter, he's been posting quite a bit of EPS of the vortex recently https://twitter.com/TradeWpower @sebastiaan1973
  9. ArHu3
    Do you have the stats for 240h, iirc gfs actually beats ecmwf there?
  10. ArHu3
    Most ec members only show displacement unfortunately although op still goes for a split
  11. ArHu3
    Troosteloos weer op komst, met storm Bella als dieptepunt | RTL Nieuws WWW.RTLNIEUWS.NL Dat romantische beeld van een witte kerst kunnen we nu echt wel vergeten. Oké, misschien valt er een verloren vlok natte sneeuw, maar dan heb je het ook wel gehad. En de rest van de week wordt ook niet best. A new record for days without snow cover here in the Netherlands 693 days (and that's for De Bilt it's been even longer where I live) Anyway Merry Christmas everybody
  12. ArHu3
    True but failure usually happens one way, high latitude blocking forecasts tend to fail, even in the medium range, whereas atlantic weather is much more predictable
  13. ArHu3
  14. ArHu3
    this winter was supposed to be frontloaded one and it failed to deliver with basically nothing in the ensembles until after Christmas at least nor do the seasonal models offer any real hope for Jan-Mar which basically show the same as the ensembles
  15. ArHu3
    stuff like this deserves to be in the model thread. ECMWF stuff like this and presumably many others here is really why we watch the model thread
  16. ArHu3
    like I said, it depends sometimes there'll be black anomalies on even the 15 day charts, when you see those you have a very strong indication that those will really be there, today's day 15 500 hPa anomaly charts shows little signal though
  17. ArHu3
    10-15 days is still not to far out that the mean will revert to climatology and often you can spot some definite features
  18. ArHu3
    My daughter's 5th birthday, she still mentions the snow we had then on her birthday
  19. ArHu3
    Now that I have to cycle 16.5 km or 30 min to work, I don't know if I l'm much of a coldie anymore, 0 C and 2 hours later and my feet still cold
  20. ArHu3
    check @chionomaniac 's post right above yours for an explanation
  21. ArHu3
    I would call them excellent, just seasonal temperatures, which after 6 years of scorching hot Decembers is sort of a welcome change I guess
  22. ArHu3
    Really strange that the Antarctic isn't affected at all and is at the third (or 4th) highest for the date
  23. ArHu3
    This settles it, we are pretty much guaranteed a very severe winter, since the elfstedentocht (eleven cities tour), an ice skating event in the Netherlands only possible in the most severe winters last held in 1997 and only held 15 times since 1909 is already canceled (because covid) http://en.wikipedia.org//static/favicon/wikipedia.ico Elfstedentocht - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
  24. ArHu3
    What's up with the QBO (around 26km)? More sudden reversals to westerlies sort of like 2016
  25. ArHu3
    Dead serious, I wouldn't bet an a therapy anytime soon. If you are young and otherwise healthy you have a good chance of pulling through with with the proper medical support should you need it
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