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    Netherlands close to the coast

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  1. 0/360 is north, 180 south, 270 west and 90 east, the plots for wind are better on the knmi site btw, the don't scatter but are plotted like an asymptot http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/weer-en-klimaatpluim
  2. My icelandic is really weak but my guess is that these are averages of the z500
  3. And gone is the cold signal in the GEFS plume
  4. Reliability of forecasts during summer 25 years ago is about at the same level as reliability of forecasts during winter today, it's amazing how elusive our weather during winter is
  5. Yes, I do consider ourselves to be lucky though, it could have been a lot worse, we could have had an Aleutian climate, year round chilly, rainy nothingness "The mean annual temperature for Unalaska, the most populated island of the group, is about 38 °F (3 °C), being about 30 °F (−1 °C) in January and about 52 °F (11 °C) in August. The highest and lowest temperatures recorded on the islands are 78 °F (26 °C) and 5 °F (−15 °C) respectively. The average annual rainfall is about 80 inches (2,000 mm), and Unalaska, with about 250 rainy days per year, is said to be one of the rainiest places within the U.S.[4]"
  6. If it is any consolation the weather sucks on the mainland too
  7. This is the coldest GFS plume I have ever seen (northeast netherlands for extra dramatic effect)
  8. I've just seen daffodils already here in the Netherlands, crocuses too, they usually only come out late February
  9. Anthony masiello and Sam lillo often post beautiful animations of waves originating in the tropics propagating and breaking, my guess is that is what the models try to calculate, these waves in the atmosphere
  10. That is not really always true, eg a week before the 63 coldspell began there was a huge azores high and 79 saw huge pacific highs. Looking back at winters past what is quite noticeable is a much greater piece of vortex in Siberia and or Alaska, I have no clue why the vortex moved, perhaps it's the loss of sea ice and/or the greater snow cover in Siberia?
  11. Dutch ensemble even much colder, with many members going for a northeastern. I haven't seen the plume end this cold this winter but I have seen enough of these plumes watered down to just miserable weather in the 96h-120h timeframe
  12. Day 10 ensemble means are very similar
  13. I'm from the Netherlands, ESE winds are not very cold here, I can't imagine that even further west they have more punch unless your standards are really low. I think air from northern Siberia, around nova zembla is called arctic air but I could be wrong
  14. No, that air is already too warm to begin with, you want air with an arctic origin, coldest direction is northeast
  15. A different way of plotting and mine are plots for Zuid Holland, where I live and way more to the west and closer to the coast (and suited for you guys south of the m4 even better would be region south west)