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  1. Those are some big changes very early on, why did the operational not see this earlier?
  2. 62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket
  3. Didn't Thursday's model output look great? Ec46 is based on Thursday's ec
  4. No such uncertainty in the de Bilt ensemble, do probably it's the exact setup of a trough/ridge with the boundery either just west or east of London
  5. EC's mjo forecast is all over the place though, hopefully we end up getting a favorable one
  6. Iirc there is even an expression in German for the Christmas thaw, for some reason between Christmas and new year the weather is even more often than usual Atlantic
  7. There haven't been that many splits in the same period, I can remember early January 2013 and mid February 2018 but I think we all remember what followed in the months after those events
  8. I forgot the image, here are the temperature anomalies after displacements. I linked to the source in the stratosphere thread
  9. You could also say that displacements are likely to bring milder than average temperatures to our parts (6/7 times for displacements since the nineties)
  10. That's actually pretty good for something 7 days out, I bet that the ensemble mean will even turn out to verify even better than that