Grimers

It's looking pretty chilly folks!

Good morning, everyone! It's looking rather cold over the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. What we must remember is that even though the uppers aren't especially cold, there are likely to be some low temperatures both by day and night especially away from the coasts. However, snow looks unlikely due to the lack of lows, but cold and sunny conditions aren't bad especially after last year's disastrous Winter.

The GFS model shows windy conditions for SW parts of the UK tomorrow.

Interesting, thanks for the link, Nick L. So, basically less moisture is needed to produce heavier falls of dry than wet snow? That would explain why the snow we had on 20 December 2010 was quite dry.

Thanks for the explanation, Paul. That makes sense now as the snow flakes in wetter snow are normally larger hence a lower rate.

* 10 mm/hr.

Hi there, I've always been curious, but does snow rate equal to 10 times the rain rate? e.g. 10 cm/hr equals 100 mm/hour or can the rate differ depending on atmospheric conditions? Thanks, William

Understood, my apologies.

You never know, as CreweCold posted a while back, his thoughts were centered on January and February. All hope is not lost, yet.

That's what I thought, a high or low moving W would cause the jet stream to buckle and move W, it makes sense.

Yes, I would agree, if the low is slightly further N than shown.

The ECMWF model shows a low to the SW of the UK bringing cold and unsettled conditions to SW parts of the UK on Sunday.

As others have mentioned, according to the GFS model a low to the SW of the UK could bring cold and unsettled conditions with snow for the higher ground of SW parts of the UK on Monday. .

The GFS model shows cold and unsettled conditions for all parts of the UK from Thursday to Sunday!

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving some of the output, especially from the GFS model! If the GFS model is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

Not always, as Nick L pointed out, fronts normally bring warmer dew points hence why you sometimes need cooler uppers.

This is a big if, but if the GFS model is correct, then a blizzard is certainly not out of the question for the higher ground of Wales and N England on Sunday.

I agree, that's why I'm more interested in what the GFS model and ECMWF model are showing for Sunday and Monday rather than what could happen in FI. There's no point in getting excited for what might not happen...

Looking at the ECMWF model, I can't see any low in the current that would bring a widespread snow events, uppers are too warm even on the northern side of the low. OTOH, the GFS model does show a low on Monday which I think would bring a snow event to C and N parts of the UK and later to higher ground of S UK. As shown, the ECMWF model is more realistic whereas the GFS model is getting quite excited, I love the last 2 charts shown from the GFS model, if the uppers were a little colder, the low would bring the first significant snow event to SW parts of the UK for nearly 6 years.

Yes, XC Weather uses the GFS model for it's forecasts, 10 cm is expected to fall over Postbridge on Monday.

I sense a lot of snow lovers in here are getting hooked on the GFS model, we should remember that the ECMWF model is better at predicting low positions at this time scale. However, the GFS model could be correct and snow instead of rain could be more of an issue.

Yes, excited is an understatement.

For some reason, I can't edit the above post, but this is what it should say...

Coming back to the more predictable future, the ECM model shows a severe storm moving into SW parts of the UK on Sunday, there's the potential of hurricane force wind gusts likely in exposure, this is something we haven't seen since 2014!

The GFS model shows cold and unsettled conditions across all parts of the UK through Friday and Saturday.