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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Link to the site please nice charts
  2. Seasonality
    Go back and have another look. They were in the minority and blocked weather is still the form horse. Calm down. It isn't even November.
  3. Seasonality
    Yes it is, a dusting on most of Poland and then extending across northern Germany to the Dutch border.
  4. Seasonality
    Very nice chart there Carinthian, most of Poland with a dusting and a big swathe of Northern Germany through to Denmark. Truly a sight to behold so early in the season. Snowfall shown well here.
  5. Seasonality
    After a mildish blip earlier this week, Poland looks set to continue a cooler than average autumn. Snow row has increased to nine around 9 November and a good number of sub zero runs are creeping into the T2M graph. A good way of seeing cold weather creeping west is to check the weather for Suwałki in Poland's north east, considered the coldest city in the country. At the end of FI it is currently forecast to have max temps of -1C with snow, and not even half way through November.
  6. Seasonality
    You are a gentleman as always knocker. This fits with my own thoughts for a continued cooler than average spell in central and eastern europe. I'm glad I've got the new winter tyres ready to go! We're up to 9 ensembles on the snow row for Warsaw around 9 November and plenty of sub zero T2M runs starting to creep in on the GEFS. Fingers crossed this cold air can be shared with the UK as well.
  7. Seasonality
    Lovely plunge of cold air into central and eastern Europe on the 12z GFS. And the snow row on the ensembles showing increasing chances for snow for Warsaw.
  8. Seasonality
    Indeed. Have a look at this graph for Warsaw showing recorded temperatures against the average. Apart from that spike early in the month it has been rather cool as you can see.
  9. Seasonality
    Liking those temp anomalies Carinthian. A clear signal for a cool spell over central and eastern europe, including Warsaw I am pleased to add. All the better for helping to start off a nice cold pool for the UK to tap into further down the line.
  10. Seasonality
    I see you missed the bit about harmless fun and not taking yourself too seriously I happen to enjoy Ian's posts, even though they are often outlandish. I'm not under any illusion that they are anything but JFF as the saying goes. No harm intended Yarmy.
  11. Seasonality
    Of course there could be. Steve Murr made an interesting post on this recently. I think the sample of years he examined was too small but there may well be a correlation.
  12. Seasonality
    Easy to be concerned, but the weather doesn't work using a quota system. You can't just use up a particular condition one month and it is a given that it won't occur the next month, the chaos of the world's weather isn't so easily explainable in such a reductive statement.
  13. Seasonality
    No he isn't, he is clearly being tongue in cheek and indulging his rather interesting take on extreme scenarios. He said "Icy cold pack-ice clogged seas extending south over the Norwegian Sea and into the NE Atlantic would also help encourage high-pressure to the north of Britain" (my emphasis). Hardly what you're suggesting. Give the man a break and stop taking yourself so seriously. Sometimes it is ok to have fun
  14. Seasonality
    I think Ian knows that to be fair. Remember, he is the sort of chap who (quite brilliantly) thinks of extreme scenarios, like slowing or reversing the rotation of the earth. It is all a bit of fun.
  15. Seasonality
    Ah, ok. Kind of like the silly one about lots of berries on the bushes. People still trot that one out despite the fact that it is plain that the yield of berries is based on the weather preceding them being ready to pick, not months into the future.
  16. Seasonality
    Has anyone else ever reported this phenomenon? Is there any historical data? It seems quite arbitrary and based on three years alone to be of little use.
  17. Seasonality
    I wouldn't put too much stead in Crappuweather. I mean seriously, somehow both warm spells and seven days of snow in London throughout the winter. Certainly possible, but just doesn't seem right to me when all of the NWP and atmospheric states are taken into account.
  18. Seasonality
    Thank you Tamara for your beautifully written post. I hope I can approach your level of knowledge one day and it is a real pleasure to have your well thought out responses available to us. My own humble contribution is this little chart from the 6z. FI starting to look chilly, which pleases me no end. despite the caution needed at that range.
  19. Seasonality
    Pictures from original post deleted to avoid cluttering the thread. Steve, could you put some meat on the bones regarding that hunch of yours, what in the output is suggesting the change to you? I'd like to know as I'm always trying to increase my knowledge and it would be a good learning opportunity for many of us.
  20. Seasonality
    In the loo. I've been eating lots of fibre
  21. Seasonality
    I'm lucky I split my time between Warsaw and London as that lovely chilly 850hpa air is spilling over Poland, Belarus and the Baltics.
  22. Seasonality
    Or that anyone posts 384 mean charts when the ensembles are spread like a spilled pot of noodles and expects us to take them seriously.
  23. Seasonality
    Any thoughts on this from more expert members? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3845712/Now-Met-Office-predict-big-freeze-YEAR-ahead-unlocking-mysteries-weather-control-s-Britain-s-climate.html Not sure I believe anything printed in the Daily Heil, but at least it is a little better than the Express which is for people who find the Daily Mail too high brow and left wing
  24. Seasonality
    Most of Canada full stop! Great to see, and that vital cover south of 60 degrees is looking good along with that nice patch in the Carpathians in Romania too, things are proceeding nicely in the Tatra mountains as well.
  25. Seasonality
    Yes, it was a good summer this year. Meanwhile, Friday saw an air frost in Warsaw. It was 0C on the nose in town and a couple of degrees below in the surrounding districts. Went to check on my house that I'm building just outside Warsaw and had a lovely frost and ice on the puddles to complement the crisp, sunny autumn morning. Beautiful weather.
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