Seasonality

Quite a change indeed! Look at the snow row for Warsaw. Not bad for output generated on 30 September.

More snow on the way for the High Tatras next week. Looks like we'll avoid last autumn's warm dry horror. Nice and damp here in Warsaw too, much needed to replenish the water levels.

Hi Tight Isobar, good to see you! Always enjoy reading your posts. The SAI is always a favourite at this time of year for predicting the upcoming winter. In your opinion, how reliable is it as a predictor? It certainly isn't a busted flush like the OPI but how well does it verify in terms of reliability? Any of our other experts feel free to pitch in too, I do like a good discussion about such factors! (sorry I deleted some of your post, just did so for ease of scrolling and avoiding tl;dr )

There are hints of this in the accuweather autumn forecast https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041 Mind you, this statement hasn't been 100% correct for my location. "Most days in September will feature high temperatures in the low to mid-20s C (upper 60s and 70s F) in Paris, Berlin and Warsaw."

Is someone having a bubble flogging this long dead horse?

I've planted a good few trees in my garden. (I am blessed to have the luxury of a big garden) If everyone with a bit of space planted more trees it would definitely helped. Greta Thunberg pointed out recently that natural solutions are cheap and effective and need more funding. So we need proper reforestation, ending the wanton forest clearing going on in the Amazon, south east Asia, Australia etc, restoring the mangroves and so on. NB I think forestry can still be maintained as an industry if it's done sustainably, we still need wood as a resource, we just don't need to clear fell rainforests to grow palm oil to put into cheap processed food.

Here in Poland we've had the first snow of the season in the high Tatra mountains.

Very windy day, not particularly cold but the wind has an edge to it. Feeling Autumnal this week that's for sure.

All joking aside, at the risk of being a broken record... For the sanity of less experienced members (and some more experienced ones ). It is only September, and yes we can say as a purely factual statement that 'x model currently shows y' but worrying about whether that will verify at this range? Do your sanity a favour. Take a note of what the models say, file them away for scientific interest, wait until closer to winter and (shock horror!) even into winter itself to see what verifies and then we'll see what reality comes to pass compared to the NWP.

Or Piers Corbyn, or Ian Brown (he of the 'teapot')

You have to laugh. It's like clockwork at this time of year. The usual 'Oh noes! Teh model showz mildz!!' and 'If teh model showz mild tehn it always verafies! zomg!' Followed by all the panicked posts responding to the aforementioned posts. Good for a laugh!

When it is said there have only been 2 previous Southern Hemisphere SSWs on record, how far back to the records go?

I have to admit, I've no idea shaky. That's a bit above my pay grade!

I agree, there is an exceptional event taking place in the southern hemisphere and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out for us on the other side of the world.

Not to be a pedant, but the 'Beast from the East' was only a blip in an otherwise unremarkable winter for the UK. There'll be cooler winters but it'll be harder to yield significantly below average DJF CETs. I suspect there'll be more one off 'events' though, like hottest temperature ever this summer past, and the Beast of 2018.

Coolish and grey after rain overnight. The scorching September of last year doesn't look like it'll be repeated. Hopefully a more normal Autumn to come to help nature follow more normal rhythms and replenish water levels.

Lol. ECM will put a cat amongst the pigeons this morning. Looking pretty good so far... Ok, not snowmageddon but better than the euro high muck being forecast earlier this week.

UKMO and ECM not dissimilar at 144z. A plausible solution imo. And hope it comes off as it gives me another cold burst and evolves nicely on ECM which has been hinting at this for a couple of days. Plus a good push west would be nice too.

After a milder weekend where we had quite a thaw the weather gods are trolling us today. I opened the front door this morning to another covering of thick, heavy snow. I was expecting a little but not that! A bit of a WTF moment.

Yes, and the 00z day before that too.

Nice one! Always daunting to do that so congrats for being brave. I still know very, very little but I like giving it a try. The 00z is lovely tbh. Just beautiful seeing the cold flood west.

Bang on, and the same reason why easterly and north easterly winds can be so bitter for my location because it is an uninterrupted land track from Siberia and the Russian Arctic.

Have you picked up the towel Steve

I think I just let out a bit of wee!

Removed your images to avoid quotescrollitis but yesterday's 00z was similarly mouthwatering in its later stages. Just saying...