Seasonality

Winter, please give autumn a go first.

JFF the snow depth charts for Warsaw. If I could follow that mean line and have steadily increasing snow cover from November I'd be a happy bunny. Chocolate teapot this far out, but nice to look at.

This pleases me immensely. Will give my northerlies some added bite!

Crisp morning runs are one the best parts of cooler weather imo. Hope these come to fruition @shaky

Forgot to mention, I was thinking of Nathan Rao, check him out. Utter #$%$#

HAHA! You sir deserve a medal. Here is with some sort of papier mache orange turd attached to a globe (think its meant to be the sun and a solar filament)

Our Indian Summer continues, it has been a beautiful week for mid-October. Lots of warm sunshine. This has been a "true" Indian Summer too, as in we had a cool spell with a first frost and then a change back to warm conditions.

Better than a Madden though Or worse, that half-wit who writes for the Express

@lassie23 posted a status update with a media article referencing this winter forecast. I'm posting the primary source out of interest. Just for the record! I'm not making any claims as to it's value. But it does seem on the face of it well researched. https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

Hello Dolly! is set in Yonkers

Careful, don't want to go with any "definites" this far out. Twill go titticus verticus if we're not careful!

Mind you, I know I'd like to have plenty of lying snow in brilliant freezing sunshine on the big day rather than nothing sticking and a few flakes falling. Just my personal opinion, but an 'official' white Christmas isn't always great.

That chart needs a trigger warning.

And here is update 7! Update 7: Slightly reduced percentage chance. Past a third of the way there! The seventh update suggests a slightly reduced percentage chance of snow in the north and south. The latest considerations are: Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured. October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued. Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8% Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10 The Computer says It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands Forecast issued 14/10/2019 07:18:35 Christmas Weather Forecast WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM Will it be a White Christmas in Great Britain? Discussion weather forecast regularly updated between September and December 25th.

Needed a new one for this year. Here's the first post that @Summer Sun put at the end of last year's thread.

This looks a bit silly now

A little ironic there about harping on . You could set a watch by your pronouncements of doom. Yes, last year was a one off in terms of a specific forecasting circumstance with the ssw but not a one off in terms of an lrf fail. And you know it. Of course you can say the forecast says zonal so it'll be zonal (as you yourself do a lot) but playing the odds on the UKs default climate is hardly an indication of forecasting expertise. It's predicting a 6 on a trick dice with four 6s. All due respect to Glosea, I'm referring specifically to your statement.

People are funny. WRT what someone said to you on Sunday, the first part I bolded is funny because I recall the run of colder winters from 2008-9 were accompanied by rubbish summers were they not? (maybe memory is failing me) As for the second part, well what more can I say!

Yeah, I've seen how wet it's been. Grim.

The scraper was back in business this morning. Warming up from tomorrow though.

Lovely snow cover in the Tatra mountains now.

Excellent point here, I've bolded the most important word of all. The fact is very, very few of us here have the qualifications to make such pronouncements. There are just a few people who do, but you'll notice they tend to be more circumspect in the way they discuss longer term prospects. The weather makes fools of the genuine experts, let alone the keen amateurs that most of us lot are.

Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief

Yes exactly. And I strongly recommend that everyone on this forum with a genuine interest in how weather prediction works should read up on chaos theory and weather. That and have an understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Two sources here to get you started. Apologies for slightly off topic mods. https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/chaos-theory-and-meteorological-predictions

The properly seasonal weather continues. A touch on the warmer side for past few days but was absolutely soaking wet on Monday with another damp day today. All change temperature wise from tomorrow though. From Saturday there'll even be a few days of single digit maxima, not bad for first half of October and certainly an improvement on last year. Looks to be a good mushroom season too!