[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

32 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 0Z average is clearly not with agreement considering new year/beginning of january for northern europe, it looks weird that the heavy cold air will get swung away that easily.

 

Last-minute snowfall overnight gave me a white christmas this year, merry christmas to you all!! 

Same here in my location 30km to the North East of Warsaw. Here's a pic from my morning run today. Was looking a bit touch and go for Xmas here in the model output recently, but the North East quadrant of Poland at least is comfortably frozen. And we're expecting a sunny day tomorrow and Boxing Day with lows in the minus teens

Happy Christmas everyone!

 

[Weather in Poland]

Hi all, update after a long absence where I've just been lurking rather than posting. Last winter's obscenely mild effort wasn't worth commenting on and then COVID came and proved a constant distraction. But this winter is more than making up for it, I'll write a full report when it's done and dusted but January gave us a good amount of snow with temperatures of -24 in my location just to the North East of Warsaw. Minima hit the -30s in the far north-east of the country during that same spell.

Interesting conditions last week where there was a north-south split with warm air affecting the south of the country mid-week, and continued snow in the north. I was in the transition zone, so one day of thaw which has led to some horrendously icy conditions in areas. The cold came back quickly though and ice cover on lakes is strengthening with plenty of people out ice fishing this past weekend in my area. Right now as I write this it's -12 and snowing with strong winds causing drifts and snow expected for the rest of the day at least. And no let up of the cold in the model output either. Could be a month to remember! Quite possibly even lower temperatures than I've recorded still to come.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Hi everyone, it's been a long time since I posted. After last winter's horror show across Europe and then COVID taking everyone's attention I ended up just lurking for a long time. But this winter has been different thankfully, some decent wintry outbreaks over here in Poland and now I see the fun is about to push west to the UK! So I thought you might like a quick live update. Here's the cold air we have waiting for you. I'm hoping it floods west as promised and brings you some wintry fun.

 

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20]

8 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

MASIE Time Series Plots | National Snow and Ice Data Center

NSIDC.ORG

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MASIE Time Series Plots

For people interested in the current state of the Arctic extents, the above link should prove useful.

Basically shows how most areas (except Baffin and Hudson Bay) are now running at normal 'icing' for this time of year.

Barents and Greenland are ahead at this point in time. (the Atlantic front)

ESS, Laptev, Kara and Central Arctic and Bering are on-track, and are now mostly full.

Beaufort  Chukchi are now back on track(ish in the case of Chukchi) , after a very, very slow start - which hit the news headlines.

The outer sea areas of Baltic and SOO are also on track.

This appraisal is based upon the last 5 years of Masie data.

The overall chart for November for the sea ice extent, shows that after the rapid freeze up in Laptev, ESS and Kara at the end of October that the refreeze has moved ahead at average rates despite temps being about 3-4C above average.

 

From here on in,  volume should become more of an issue.

 

MIA

 

The Baltic graph was very interesting. Early freeze this year.

[Model output discussion - late November]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dews across Europe show the Mid Atlantic high doing its job and allowing colder air to spill down from the north.

Should put a smile  @jules216 face

About time But oddly enough the last few years December seems to begin with a bang.

[Model output discussion - late November]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We did watch the gfsv3 in parallel last winter ......it generally had the same failings as its predecessor (just as ec does with over amplification ) 

one thing I haven’t mentioned is the jet continues to correct south as the runs tick closer .....

You're right, but my observation still stands. Not quite enough data yet for us to make the same assumptions, and in fact we shouldn't assume at all unless it's backed up with something verifiable

[Model output discussion - late November]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

I cannot believe the total memory loss of the same old people here, thats the same ones posting the same replies as they do every year - defending the GFS when its going to be wrong.

When you have UKMO aligned to ECM & ECM mean at 120 they are NEVER trumped by an out of kilter GFS especially the 06z which is like comparing a pedigree with a stray.

So for all the neutrals who wonder if its just opinion or is it sound education over a few years lets take yesterday as a prime example of how bad the 06Z GFS is - 

UKMO 144 yest V 120 Today

That is a superb match across day 6 down to Day 5. Metronomic consistency with minimal adjustments all around the Globe.

Now look at the runt of the litter the GFS. Same timeline.

Yesterday at 144 No Greenland High, No decent arc of Cold coming through Scandi

UK in southerlies -- Look how much this model has changed in that short time span...

* So if yesterday was awful at 144 with  no clue of the pattern then the probability is todays 144>168 is the same bin fodder

How anyone who indicates they follow the models can put any credibility on such a pants model (06z) - means to me they are deliberate in their attempts to derail the thread.

Back to the original well proven point 

* If the 06z goes off on a tangent through 144 then scrap it *

Steve, as I said before, with all due respect it is not the same GFS though. The new version hasn't yet had a winter run as the op, so making the same assumptions based on years old observations is rather unscientific don't you think?

[Model output discussion - late November]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep. Its a shower of s*it post 144.

Its been proving it since 2009.

Feb 1 2009 Actual V Jan 25 06z run to 162.

Could post up the same old trash runs from every year but cant be bothered.

But why dont you take a picture of todays 168 & 192 GFS & compare it 7 days down the line....

 

But it's the new GFS Steve. Is it a good idea to make the same assumptions?

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

16 hours ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Only have to look back at this time last year to realise it can all change in the blink of an eye.



As we all know that's not what transpired.

 

So you're saying charts at 200+ hours don't always verify!? Why did no one tell me this before?!

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

31 minutes ago, jules216 said:

@Seasonality since millennium the most similar match for current November progression more less were years 2000,2002,2008,2009,2012,2014,2018, see anomaly that quite fairly represents what is being forecast for next 2 or 3 weeks. Now scroll forward to anomaly in subsequent winters - bingo! Almost too good to be true. Uncanny similarity to @knocker day 8-14 anomaly posted above.

Thanks @jules216, I had a suspicion it may look something like that myself. Some good years for European winters in that list but also some stinkers, the analogue looks nice though. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

I don't usually like analogues, but has anyone got any idea of what a possible comparable could be for this omnipresent high pressure affecting eastern and central europe and nudging up into scandi. It isn't a classic euro high or even really a sceuro as some folk here like to use at times. What has followed on from such a pattern in the past? Will it be of assistance in keeping the vortex disrupted, help with a strat warming or have other interesting results further down the line. Would love to hear ideas.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not bad either.

No euro high, no organized vortex. Heights from Scandi through Iceland to Greenland. Looks good to me too

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I will agree with you there - it’s not classic zonality as we know it, but the subtropical high is retracted and lower heights dominate to the north. It’s zonal enough, fairly typical for autumn.

This isn't full steam zonal. The arrival of the zonal express isn't yet a done deal.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

One thing makes me happy with its absence. No horrible euro high.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

absolutely alot for the models to deal with this season atm looking like a 2014 rerun.

although the tanked -ao might also be trowing alsorts of spanners in the models predictions.

 

With the utmost of respect, I'm not convinced myself, 5 years on the models have undergone significant changes. I think many of the old sayings here about GFS vs ECM etc may have been right at some point in the past but have now taken on the character of old wives tales. Only hard data verification will show show the truth, and it's particularly so in the case of the GFS upgrade having it's first winter season as the OP. All bets off the table for now methinks. Going to be interesting regardless of the outcome.

[Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Are you? My confidence has been decreasing by day and is at all time low today after looking at 0Z EPS. I have intentionally picked up the coldest valley possibly in Central Europe and had a look. The coldest ENS mean T2M day looks like being next Wednesday, towards day 10-15 the T850 hPa  is at 2C. Nothing to write home about. I have nearly fell again in to trap of high lat blocking 144+ hrs which now looks like a mediocre mid. latitude block as per recent winters and model debacles. I have promised myself not to take any blocking literally. Have you not seen the trend where models predict at long range this massive Euro through and by 96hrs the low pressure is barely low enough to qualify below long term mean and Euro high is ready to pounce again from either Iberia or South East Europe. 

I honestly think the new GFS may be onto something this time around. Happy to be proved wrong though, and there's every chance I will be. But I'll nail my colours to the mast regardless

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

29 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That would be where my money goes too unfortunately.  It’s got history 

But its the new and upgraded version, the first winter season with the FV3 upgrade fully in place. 

NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

WWW.NOAA.GOV

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Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

 

[Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition]

17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Even for the U.K. Releasing my LRF on Sunday as I believe Nov will be more winter than autumn

 

BFTP

I look forward to reading it!.

[Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition]

12 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well GFS 12z would definitely bring snow beginning of Nov, lining up nicely

 

BFTP

I'm getting more and more confident of an early season cold spell for mainland Europe at the very least. As I posted in the mod thread I'm impressed with GFS's consistency in the countdown to the change. 

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

GFS has been pretty much rock solid in going for a shift to colder conditions in my part of Europe, the op has really stuck to its guns for the most part. My cautious prediction is for an early season win for the American model, but still all to play for and no guarantee who'll be top of the table in a couple of months time.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

JFF at this range, but a chance of cold already becoming entrenched further east to help everyone in the UK further down the line. My eyebrow is definitely raised so early in the season. ECM snow cover chart for Poland and GFS ensembles from Warsaw to give you an idea of what could be in the offing. It's been forecast quite solidly for a few days now, so my confidence levels are very slowly rising.

[Weather in Poland]

This raises an eyebrow so early in the season. Snow cover chart for Poland, day 10 ECM so JFF of course.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Seems as if the GFS 06Z Operational has taken to trundling along at the coldest side of the GEFS ensembles, once again...?

    

    

Indeed and it's doing it for my neck of the woods too. It seems to have been a theme the past few days, GFS op run often trending colder and pulling the suite down as @tight isobar alludes to  I'm quietly confident of a colder regime setting in for a while.

[Weather in Poland]

If the ECM FI, and it's always a HUGE if in the case of FI obviously. Then, we could have an ice day for Halloween.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

A little look at temperature and rain anomalies based on yesterday's ECM monthly. Didn't bother with this week as it's within short range forecasts. Looking chilly.