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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Careful, don't want to go with any "definites" this far out. Twill go titticus verticus if we're not careful!
  2. Mind you, I know I'd like to have plenty of lying snow in brilliant freezing sunshine on the big day rather than nothing sticking and a few flakes falling. Just my personal opinion, but an 'official' white Christmas isn't always great.
  3. And here is update 7! Update 7: Slightly reduced percentage chance. Past a third of the way there! The seventh update suggests a slightly reduced percentage chance of snow in the north and south. The latest considerations are: Seasonal forecast model updates suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated winter is favoured. October weather patterns. Unsettled conditions have continued. Recent output from seasonal computer models has generally been pointing towards a milder than average winter. Although seasonal models display a low skill level for the UK they are taken into account. Chance of snow on Christmas Day North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14% South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 8% Updates 1: 01/09/2019, 2: 08/09, 3: 15/09, 4: 22/09, 5: 29/09, 6: 06/10, 7: 13/10 The Computer says It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands Forecast issued 14/10/2019 07:18:35 Christmas Weather Forecast WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM Will it be a White Christmas in Great Britain? Discussion weather forecast regularly updated between September and December 25th.
  4. Needed a new one for this year. Here's the first post that @Summer Sun put at the end of last year's thread.
  5. A little ironic there about harping on . You could set a watch by your pronouncements of doom. Yes, last year was a one off in terms of a specific forecasting circumstance with the ssw but not a one off in terms of an lrf fail. And you know it. Of course you can say the forecast says zonal so it'll be zonal (as you yourself do a lot) but playing the odds on the UKs default climate is hardly an indication of forecasting expertise. It's predicting a 6 on a trick dice with four 6s. All due respect to Glosea, I'm referring specifically to your statement.
  6. People are funny. WRT what someone said to you on Sunday, the first part I bolded is funny because I recall the run of colder winters from 2008-9 were accompanied by rubbish summers were they not? (maybe memory is failing me) As for the second part, well what more can I say!
  7. Yeah, I've seen how wet it's been. Grim.
  8. The scraper was back in business this morning. Warming up from tomorrow though.
  9. Excellent point here, I've bolded the most important word of all. The fact is very, very few of us here have the qualifications to make such pronouncements. There are just a few people who do, but you'll notice they tend to be more circumspect in the way they discuss longer term prospects. The weather makes fools of the genuine experts, let alone the keen amateurs that most of us lot are.
  10. Mind you, for all CreweCold's usual relish in being a harbinger of mild doom, long range models in October are still not quite worth slashing your wrists about. They're not in "t!t$ on a bull" territory in terms of reliability anymore, but... Well you can fill in the gaps. They're more of a watching brief
  11. Yes exactly. And I strongly recommend that everyone on this forum with a genuine interest in how weather prediction works should read up on chaos theory and weather. That and have an understanding of the second law of thermodynamics. Two sources here to get you started. Apologies for slightly off topic mods. https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/chaos-theory-and-meteorological-predictions
  12. The properly seasonal weather continues. A touch on the warmer side for past few days but was absolutely soaking wet on Monday with another damp day today. All change temperature wise from tomorrow though. From Saturday there'll even be a few days of single digit maxima, not bad for first half of October and certainly an improvement on last year. Looks to be a good mushroom season too!
  13. Quite a change indeed! Look at the snow row for Warsaw. Not bad for output generated on 30 September.
  14. What is love?

    1. Show previous comments  5 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      probably pie

    3. Dami

      Dami

      yes pie is love.

    4. Seasonality

      Seasonality

      @cheeky_monkey and @Damiyou've both got the correct answer. Good effort from everyone else though

  15. More snow on the way for the High Tatras next week. Looks like we'll avoid last autumn's warm dry horror. Nice and damp here in Warsaw too, much needed to replenish the water levels.
  16. Hi Tight Isobar, good to see you! Always enjoy reading your posts. The SAI is always a favourite at this time of year for predicting the upcoming winter. In your opinion, how reliable is it as a predictor? It certainly isn't a busted flush like the OPI but how well does it verify in terms of reliability? Any of our other experts feel free to pitch in too, I do like a good discussion about such factors! (sorry I deleted some of your post, just did so for ease of scrolling and avoiding tl;dr )
  17. There are hints of this in the accuweather autumn forecast https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-europe-autumn-forecast/70009041 Mind you, this statement hasn't been 100% correct for my location. "Most days in September will feature high temperatures in the low to mid-20s C (upper 60s and 70s F) in Paris, Berlin and Warsaw."
  18. I've planted a good few trees in my garden. (I am blessed to have the luxury of a big garden) If everyone with a bit of space planted more trees it would definitely helped. Greta Thunberg pointed out recently that natural solutions are cheap and effective and need more funding. So we need proper reforestation, ending the wanton forest clearing going on in the Amazon, south east Asia, Australia etc, restoring the mangroves and so on. NB I think forestry can still be maintained as an industry if it's done sustainably, we still need wood as a resource, we just don't need to clear fell rainforests to grow palm oil to put into cheap processed food.
  19. Here in Poland we've had the first snow of the season in the high Tatra mountains.
  20. Very windy day, not particularly cold but the wind has an edge to it. Feeling Autumnal this week that's for sure.
  21. All joking aside, at the risk of being a broken record... For the sanity of less experienced members (and some more experienced ones ). It is only September, and yes we can say as a purely factual statement that 'x model currently shows y' but worrying about whether that will verify at this range? Do your sanity a favour. Take a note of what the models say, file them away for scientific interest, wait until closer to winter and (shock horror!) even into winter itself to see what verifies and then we'll see what reality comes to pass compared to the NWP.
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