Seasonality

Same here in my location 30km to the North East of Warsaw. Here's a pic from my morning run today. Was looking a bit touch and go for Xmas here in the model output recently, but the North East quadrant of Poland at least is comfortably frozen. And we're expecting a sunny day tomorrow and Boxing Day with lows in the minus teens ?️ Happy Christmas everyone!

Hi all, update after a long absence where I've just been lurking rather than posting. Last winter's obscenely mild effort wasn't worth commenting on and then COVID came and proved a constant distraction. But this winter is more than making up for it, I'll write a full report when it's done and dusted but January gave us a good amount of snow with temperatures of -24 in my location just to the North East of Warsaw. Minima hit the -30s in the far north-east of the country during that same spell. Interesting conditions last week where there was a north-south split with warm air affecting the south of the country mid-week, and continued snow in the north. I was in the transition zone, so one day of thaw which has led to some horrendously icy conditions in areas. The cold came back quickly though and ice cover on lakes is strengthening with plenty of people out ice fishing this past weekend in my area. Right now as I write this it's -12 and snowing with strong winds causing drifts and snow expected for the rest of the day at least. And no let up of the cold in the model output either. Could be a month to remember! Quite possibly even lower temperatures than I've recorded still to come.

Hi everyone, it's been a long time since I posted. After last winter's horror show across Europe and then COVID taking everyone's attention I ended up just lurking for a long time. But this winter has been different thankfully, some decent wintry outbreaks over here in Poland and now I see the fun is about to push west to the UK! So I thought you might like a quick live update. Here's the cold air we have waiting for you. I'm hoping it floods west as promised and brings you some wintry fun.

The Baltic graph was very interesting. Early freeze this year.

About time But oddly enough the last few years December seems to begin with a bang.

You're right, but my observation still stands. Not quite enough data yet for us to make the same assumptions, and in fact we shouldn't assume at all unless it's backed up with something verifiable

Steve, as I said before, with all due respect it is not the same GFS though. The new version hasn't yet had a winter run as the op, so making the same assumptions based on years old observations is rather unscientific don't you think?

But it's the new GFS Steve. Is it a good idea to make the same assumptions?

So you're saying charts at 200+ hours don't always verify!? Why did no one tell me this before?!

Thanks @jules216, I had a suspicion it may look something like that myself. Some good years for European winters in that list but also some stinkers, the analogue looks nice though.

I don't usually like analogues, but has anyone got any idea of what a possible comparable could be for this omnipresent high pressure affecting eastern and central europe and nudging up into scandi. It isn't a classic euro high or even really a sceuro as some folk here like to use at times. What has followed on from such a pattern in the past? Will it be of assistance in keeping the vortex disrupted, help with a strat warming or have other interesting results further down the line. Would love to hear ideas.

No euro high, no organized vortex. Heights from Scandi through Iceland to Greenland. Looks good to me too

This isn't full steam zonal. The arrival of the zonal express isn't yet a done deal.

One thing makes me happy with its absence. No horrible euro high.

With the utmost of respect, I'm not convinced myself, 5 years on the models have undergone significant changes. I think many of the old sayings here about GFS vs ECM etc may have been right at some point in the past but have now taken on the character of old wives tales. Only hard data verification will show show the truth, and it's particularly so in the case of the GFS upgrade having it's first winter season as the OP. All bets off the table for now methinks. Going to be interesting regardless of the outcome.

I honestly think the new GFS may be onto something this time around. Happy to be proved wrong though, and there's every chance I will be. But I'll nail my colours to the mast regardless

But its the new and upgraded version, the first winter season with the FV3 upgrade fully in place. NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WWW.NOAA.GOV Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

I look forward to reading it!.

I'm getting more and more confident of an early season cold spell for mainland Europe at the very least. As I posted in the mod thread I'm impressed with GFS's consistency in the countdown to the change.

GFS has been pretty much rock solid in going for a shift to colder conditions in my part of Europe, the op has really stuck to its guns for the most part. My cautious prediction is for an early season win for the American model, but still all to play for and no guarantee who'll be top of the table in a couple of months time.

JFF at this range, but a chance of cold already becoming entrenched further east to help everyone in the UK further down the line. My eyebrow is definitely raised so early in the season. ECM snow cover chart for Poland and GFS ensembles from Warsaw to give you an idea of what could be in the offing. It's been forecast quite solidly for a few days now, so my confidence levels are very slowly rising.

This raises an eyebrow so early in the season. Snow cover chart for Poland, day 10 ECM so JFF of course.

Indeed and it's doing it for my neck of the woods too. It seems to have been a theme the past few days, GFS op run often trending colder and pulling the suite down as @tight isobar alludes to I'm quietly confident of a colder regime setting in for a while.

If the ECM FI, and it's always a HUGE if in the case of FI obviously. Then, we could have an ice day for Halloween.

A little look at temperature and rain anomalies based on yesterday's ECM monthly. Didn't bother with this week as it's within short range forecasts. Looking chilly.