Seasonality

Yes, quite a significant cool down indeed. Going from above average to below in a few days. Good to see parts of Europe starting to cool, if it comes off that is. As a post script, good that you pointed out central and eastern Europe. Many people don't seem to realise the distinction and geography is important when we're looking at the progression of the weather. The map I've included is useful, eastern Europe is pink, central Europe yellow etc (source, CIA World Fact Book).

I know Tongue was firmly in cheek with that last post I made in this thread

ECM does indeed see things quite differently for next week! 2m temp graph here for Warsaw.

As much as we take the proverbial out of the CFS at least charts like this are pleasant on the eye. Not saying it will happen, just saying it looks nice.

Oh dear, this sort of thread could lead to a lot of thrown toys...

All part of the fascinating and frustrating business of forecasting weather for the UK in particular. A long narrow island on bordering an ocean on the far western edge of a continental land mass with loads of competing factors at play. I really do respect the experts for trying to make some sense of it!

You're right, wait and see is where we're at right now.

Interesting discussion of ENSO state above, but worth noting it probably isn't worth stressing about yet. ENSO state is just one of several factors that influence European weather and other factors can and do overwhelm the signal. It may have an impact but as winter comes closer then other factors may enter play, more of the fun of winter forecasting. Other parts of the world have more marked and significant outcomes. Check out this excellent Met Office page for more info, including some very interesting maps of weather outcomes of different ENSO states. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/enso-impacts

Fair point. Swings and roundabouts come to mind.

Don't worry Ed, next week they'll be forecasting 100 DAYS OF BLIZZARDS in WORST WINTER WEATHER IN DECADES!!! Oh, and the EU is bad and causes cancer etc etc

Just the type of Autumn weather I dislike too. Hope it begins to improve in your neck of the woods. Missing out on that golden light of October is a real shame, as you say a very special time of year in terms of the light.

Oh no! The madness! It begins! But seriously, my first thoughts are as follows. As far back as end of August and start of September I saw folks already writing off winter as being another mild one. As we all know, it is not possible with modern science to forecast the weather so far out with any degree of certainty, especially for a long narrow island on the western edge of a continental land mass. That isn't to take anything away from long range forecasters let me hasten to add. The uncertainty of course is what makes this whole weather watching malarkey so much fun! What I'd hope for for folk in the UK is two or three good widespread snow events, the South included, and plenty of nice frosty weather. My advice for people keeping their sanity is to ignore all those day 10 ecm charts that show snowmageddon, treat them as entertainment only. Use the ignore button if you think someone is on the wind up. It should all be good natured fun and reasoned debate here. Lastly, the weather will do what it will. The NWP output is not a set in stone prediction but a forecast based on available data at the time the model is run. Looking forward to all the fun of the season!