Seasonality
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Here in Poland we've had the first snow of the season in the high Tatra mountains. -
Very windy day, not particularly cold but the wind has an edge to it. Feeling Autumnal this week that's for sure.
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All joking aside, at the risk of being a broken record... For the sanity of less experienced members (and some more experienced ones ). It is only September, and yes we can say as a purely factual statement that 'x model currently shows y' but worrying about whether that will verify at this range? Do your sanity a favour. Take a note of what the models say, file them away for scientific interest, wait until closer to winter and (shock horror!) even into winter itself to see what verifies and then we'll see what reality comes to pass compared to the NWP.
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Or Piers Corbyn, or Ian Brown (he of the 'teapot')
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Winter is over! (Had to be first
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Hey, hold on a minute. While basking in a 30c evening I can easily feel my thoughts drifting to icy mornings and gentle snow cover on the hills for our first full winter here in the Monts d'Ambazac.
Seriously though, this has been bizarre year here. Summer didn't really start until mi-juin. Two battering heatwaves, ongoing drought (see my France weather post) and a septembre that's like juillet. Anything could happen...
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You have to laugh. It's like clockwork at this time of year. The usual 'Oh noes! Teh model showz mildz!!' and 'If teh model showz mild tehn it always verafies! zomg!' Followed by all the panicked posts responding to the aforementioned posts. Good for a laugh!
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When it is said there have only been 2 previous Southern Hemisphere SSWs on record, how far back to the records go?
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I have to admit, I've no idea shaky. That's a bit above my pay grade!
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I agree, there is an exceptional event taking place in the southern hemisphere and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out for us on the other side of the world.
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Not to be a pedant, but the 'Beast from the East' was only a blip in an otherwise unremarkable winter for the UK. There'll be cooler winters but it'll be harder to yield significantly below average DJF CETs. I suspect there'll be more one off 'events' though, like hottest temperature ever this summer past, and the Beast of 2018.
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Coolish and grey after rain overnight. The scorching September of last year doesn't look like it'll be repeated. Hopefully a more normal Autumn to come to help nature follow more normal rhythms and replenish water levels.
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Returning to NW after a long absence. Hope everyone is well!
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Lol. ECM will put a cat amongst the pigeons this morning. Looking pretty good so far... Ok, not snowmageddon but better than the euro high muck being forecast earlier this week.
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UKMO and ECM not dissimilar at 144z. A plausible solution imo. And hope it comes off as it gives me another cold burst and evolves nicely on ECM which has been hinting at this for a couple of days. Plus a good push west would be nice too.
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After a milder weekend where we had quite a thaw the weather gods are trolling us today. I opened the front door this morning to another covering of thick, heavy snow. I was expecting a little but not that! A bit of a WTF moment.
