Seasonality

Yesterday, @ArHu3kindly posted this, which shows temperature anomalies specifically following stratospheric displacements. I'd like to see similar regarding stratospheric splits as I expect this would yield different results. For Central Europe I see two colder, one average and 4 warmer but this is a rather small sample to be drawing solid conclusions from. figure-iv_12012018 (2).webp

If only it weren't deep FI of the General Fail System... Festive period looking, well, festive for my location. Would be nice to break a run of milder Christmases.

Spot the rather crucial difference in the incoming Atlantic.

No, it'll definitely break through. Just the timing and angle of attack to be finalised.

I would say UKMO is showing the block doing a good job of holding back the Atlantic. Notice the positioning of the Atlantic low pressure system compared especially to the GFS, close to diving into Europe under the block rather than just ploughing over the top.

The swings in output run to run are really quite amusing. The UKMO and ECM seem to have caught GFS-itis.

I don't know much about GP's balls, but he seems to have made a very good call. If only I could have one tenth of his knowledge. All balls aside the UKMO 144h chart is a cracker.

Say you're pleasantly surprised

Ha ha! Perfect, thanks for more laughs. You're really good at this in a strange way. I'll leave you to it mate, and everyone else will enjoy your posts for their pure entertainment value.

The kraken awakes. Matt is correct. No flat profile is evident. You're nothing if not predictable. Don't you get bored of doing this every winter? I tell you what go ahead and post a meaningless 384z gfs mean, I'll give you one for free. Thanks for a good laugh on a Sunday morning.

Oh no you don't! No aria for you just yet fat lady.

ECM going down same route as 00z UKMO but block even stronger

Happy Sunday everyone. Yesterday's 12z UKMO must have been a bit of an outlier. The block is back at strength on the 00z but the old GFS is a very different picture. GEM maintains the block more like the UKMO though. Still much to be resolved.

Nice segue @Paul and to build on that blog my advice to people is to treat December as a month in the astronomical sense in terms of seasons, that is that Winter doesn't start until the solstice. Treating the first two thirds of December as Autumn makes more sense and reduces unrealistic expectations imo.