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Seasonality

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    Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.

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  1. I think it is a bit early still to speak with absolute certainty though. Give it another five or six days and I'd be more inclined to agree with you if the output still indicates mild. Which brings me a question for anyone to answer if they can. What weather websites use ECM output for their forecasts, I use yr.no to see what ECM is showing but does anyone know of others?
  2. Saw someone in shorts this morning. Sorry, you just look like an idiot with your mottled blue legs.

    1. Show previous comments  8 more
    2. Seasonality

      Seasonality

      @c00ps short bursts going from one warm place to another I completely understand. I've done the same myself.

    3. Mokidugway

      Mokidugway

      My postie wears shorts all the time ,suppose it's better than a skirt as he has hairy legs :rofl:

    4. BornFromTheVoid

      BornFromTheVoid

      @Seasonality I guess it depends where you are at the moment? It was only around -1C in Newcastle at that time, with little wind, so I'd go shorts and t-shirt for those conditions (with gloves!), especially for a fast paced run. If it's dipping down toward -5C or it's windy with the cold, then yeah, a little covering up might be needed!

  3. Surely this winter is 'better' than last for  UK cold fans already, and only 11 days in!

    1. jvenge

      jvenge

      Depends where one lives in the UK, I guess.

      My sister, in Leeds, was rather disappointed yesterday.

    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      i want more and i want it now:oops:

    3. Mapantz

      Mapantz

      No. Two air frosts this year, compared to 7 up to this time last year. 

  4. Deleted your charts to save on scrolling Just answering about the GEM and uppers. GEM tends to overdo the uppers, or so I've seen said by members more knowledgeable than me.
  5. There is a high chance they are inaccurate at 6 and 7 days at the best of times!
  6. Oh Steve! You are a one... But back to the debate about the slider low, from memory is Wednesday not much too far out to judge the track with any sort of certainty? Was it the March 2013 snowfall that ended up causing record falls in the channel isles after being forecast to hit the mainland only days before? Not saying it will happen again but worth noting in that at this stage there is no point getting worried or putting the champagne on ice as the case may be.
  7. Oh ECM! You tease. Tantalising us at Day 10 again I see. Compare and contrast with GFS at the same time frame. Clearly not a relentless output of zonal muck at the moment, with more changes in the output yet to come. So no point over milk that has not been spilt, yet.
  8. Only a few days until Xmas appears on the GFS runs.

    1. lassie23

      lassie23

      have yourself a mild sunny christmas

    2. Seasonality

      Seasonality

      Mild and grey and drizzly is more likely :)

    3. jvenge

      jvenge

      I was thinking just the same this morning. Becomes quite alarming how quickly it seems to creep up each year.

       

  9. I know that Mr and Mrs Spank need to pay a short sharp trip to Bottyland for me posting a GFS snow accumulation chart so far out, but this is mouth watering for lovers of the white stuff. Just look at the coverage.
  10. I hope everyone is happy with the season so far. Has been something for everyone of late.

     

    1. Show previous comments  4 more
    2. lassie23

      lassie23

      we were thrashed by that lot:doh:

    3. Ed Stone

      Ed Stone

      As much as I loathe cliche, it's a funny old game.:aggressive::D

    4. Spikecollie

      Spikecollie

      Yey! Seen snow falling in the UK, icy puddles, snow again last night here in Dijon I'm happy....

  11. Yes, some truth to that, but conversely the 'uselessness' of the 06z and 18z is massively overstated on this forum at times, usually when it doesn't show what people want.
  12. In the past there were one or two folk on here who used the 384h GFS mean to show what would be happening in a fortnight's time and usually to support their own weather preference. Problem is that at that range the spread is usually such that the mean charts are useless, a muted representation of a whole suite of broadly varying 384h outcomes, and we know how accurate any model is at that range (example from today's 06z below).Glad to see it isn't being done this year and that more considered analysis is being undertaken. I prefer to look for clustering in the more reliable time frames and the position of the op and the control within the suite to make an analysis. I also like the function on weathercast that shows a nice little graph of ECM and GFS side by side.
  13. Charts like this are almost perverse. A tongue of warm air sat over the UK. Pretty much the only landmass at the same latitudes.
  14. Quibble ye not over the 06z output. Still very cold air over the UK to end next week.
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