Seasonality

The Baltic graph was very interesting. Early freeze this year.

About time But oddly enough the last few years December seems to begin with a bang.

You're right, but my observation still stands. Not quite enough data yet for us to make the same assumptions, and in fact we shouldn't assume at all unless it's backed up with something verifiable

Steve, as I said before, with all due respect it is not the same GFS though. The new version hasn't yet had a winter run as the op, so making the same assumptions based on years old observations is rather unscientific don't you think?

But it's the new GFS Steve. Is it a good idea to make the same assumptions?

So you're saying charts at 200+ hours don't always verify!? Why did no one tell me this before?! ?

Thanks @jules216, I had a suspicion it may look something like that myself. Some good years for European winters in that list but also some stinkers, the analogue looks nice though.

I don't usually like analogues, but has anyone got any idea of what a possible comparable could be for this omnipresent high pressure affecting eastern and central europe and nudging up into scandi. It isn't a classic euro high or even really a sceuro as some folk here like to use at times. What has followed on from such a pattern in the past? Will it be of assistance in keeping the vortex disrupted, help with a strat warming or have other interesting results further down the line. Would love to hear ideas.

No euro high, no organized vortex. Heights from Scandi through Iceland to Greenland. Looks good to me too ?

This isn't full steam zonal. The arrival of the zonal express isn't yet a done deal.

One thing makes me happy with its absence. No horrible euro high.

With the utmost of respect, I'm not convinced myself, 5 years on the models have undergone significant changes. I think many of the old sayings here about GFS vs ECM etc may have been right at some point in the past but have now taken on the character of old wives tales. Only hard data verification will show show the truth, and it's particularly so in the case of the GFS upgrade having it's first winter season as the OP. All bets off the table for now methinks. Going to be interesting regardless of the outcome.

I honestly think the new GFS may be onto something this time around. Happy to be proved wrong though, and there's every chance I will be. But I'll nail my colours to the mast regardless ?

But its the new and upgraded version, the first winter season with the FV3 upgrade fully in place. NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WWW.NOAA.GOV Improved model will boost weather forecasts across the U.S.

I look forward to reading it!.