Anti-Mild

It's genuinely like you want this to all go horribly wrong! Are you Bill Farkin reincarnated? (that one was for the old BBC Snowwatch alumni) I've been a member of the forum for almost 2 decades, and I've been burnt as much as anyone. This, like 2010 before, feels different although i am still trying to reign in my excitement. And even if it does go hugely wrong, or ends up a damp squib, enjoy the ride! These synoptics don't show up often, even in deepest FI.

I've not posted for a good while in the forum - more of a lurker But i've been a member for getting on 2 decades, and some things never change. Why, when looking at the model outputs, are people still comparing the run with the previous run, rather than with the same run 24 hours ago? The Model Discussion thread is an absolute playground farce at times! "Disastrous run", "no it's not, it's epic", "oooh that's the chance of cold gone", "woooah, snowmageddon incoming". Maybe I'm grouchy because I've had to work, but it's tiresome.

I've been working up in West Denton the last couple of days, and it really is dispiriting to drive past Peterlee and leave the local snow shield. Plenty of ice to scrape off the car but that's it. In fact, I moved here 3 and a bit years ago and I'm struggling to remember any noteworthy snowfall in the time I've lived in thus house.

Well I know I'm number 1!! I can't believe something I started 15 odd years ago us still going! Here's to an amazing Winter coming up!!

It's been hugely frustrating for me today. Woke up to a dusting of snow, and aside from about 4 occasions all day I've watched showers miss just to the north or just to the south. Staying positive though.

Not sure I agree. What's about to happen from late Saturday through to Wednesday hasn't changed a great deal from 2 days ago, and as has been repeated ad nauseum on here, once the cold is in place it's a bugger to shift, so all the models will more than likely be overly progressive. Let's just enjoy the next few days, and we'll see what's to come by early next week.

So I took a few days off model watching as it was seriously annoying me that the super cold charts were always 10 days away, and it was shaping up to be mild and wet anyway. Back on today for first time in a week. Guess what? Cold charts showing up in 10 days time! You couldn't write it.

I'm so model jaded right now. Proper cold is always 10 days away, and even if the background signals and/or synoptics are primed to deliver snow and ice to the UK, whatever can throw a spanner in the works will throw a spanner in the works. I mean even Spain gets more snow than us!

Because at some point we angered the weather gods, and we now find ourselves in cold purgatory.

I have a question for the members of the forum that understand about these things better than I ever could. The effects of the SSW are yet to be seen, but the models seem keen to throw a wedge of PV into North America (potentially bad news for us). My question is this; is it possible that a wedge of PV could find it's way towards Scandinavia, and if so what would be the result, not just for us, but also the rest of NW Europe?

I reckon that would give daytime temps of -5 or lower in favoured areas, nightime probs -15 easily, maybe even breach -20. Not often -16 850HPa hits us.

Now i'm a naturally very optimistic individual, but i've been burned waaaay too many times to count over the years on this site, and i find myself at this time suffering from a bit of model fatigue. It's been my knee-jerk reaction when i see certain 'negative' posts on the Model Discussion thread to dismiss them, but this last 10 days or so it's always felt like the good stuff is always 6 days away, and i'm starting to see their point of view. Yes, i've had a sprinkling of snow here on Christmas Eve, and i woke up to a light dusting yesterday, but I cannot shake the feeling that it should be delivering more. I know that what's happening now is a lot better than we've had for a good while, but I find myself getting wearied by checking the outputs several times each day to find that the forecast snow is now fizzled out to a wintry mix, or it's definitely coming at +96, or it's now modelled to hit the Low Countries. Apologies for the downbeat feel to this post, i'm sure that after a 2 day break from obsessively monitoring the models will help.

Haha, i've been a member since 2002 and i'm confused! A lot of it seems to be rooted more in psychology than in meteorology - glass half full vs. glass half empty and all that.

Nice LOTR reference! Here's hoping for some Pass of Caradhras type bilizzards, which is pretty likely were the ECM to verify.

I wish I could be comfortable with dismissing the MetO's forecasted HP for January, but it wouldn't be the first time they stuck to their guns and came out looking like forecasting wizards.

Netweather radar has me under rain/sleet her in Stockton, but it's definitely snowing and just starting to lay!

It's a good sign that there's been a move eastward by the main point of interest, but I can't shake the fear that it's the start of a trend that will result in a direct cold blast to the Low Countries, leaving us under a cold and frosty HP. Not an awful outcome, but not what most of us want. It wouldn't be the first time that we've looked set for a snowy Arctic blast only for Holland and Belgium to reap the benefits.

The UKMO will fall into line, and then as was ever the case 1 of the other 2 will lose faith in itself. You read it here first

I'm due to be at a wedding on Saturday 3rd at Guisborough and it's looking like it may be a challenge and a half getting there.

I wonder if this is how January 7th 1987 would have been if the internet and Netweather had been around! This is amazing but it's also starting to get a little worrying, especially for the elderly and homeless.

With this cold spell now looking increasingly likely to verify, if the UKMO have got this modelled correctly where do we think this will sit in the pantheon of easterlys? On a par with '91? '87? Dare I suggest '47?

Is it schadenfreude or deep rooted pessimism that's the driving force behind some of the posts in here of late? I've been a member of this forum for 13 years but at times like this it's almost unbearable trying to find a measured viewpoint to the models. A couple of people have already stated that they are dodging the forum for the foreseeable and I'm thinking of joining them. As ever the models beyond +144 are not reliable, especially in finer detail. Up until +144 they are all in broad agreement that we are going to get a potent cold blast with snow. Can't we all just appreciate that?

Wow! Just, wow! I fully expected to wake up to downgrades this morning but thankfully not. This is shaping up to be amazing for us coldies, dare i say reminiscent of Jan 87? However, it's getting to the stage where there could be potentially widespread and serious consequences for an infrastructure that is not used to these events. In short, get stocked up on essentials, make sure you've a shovel in your car, and check on the elderly when you can.

A meteorgasm surely?

Hmmm, got a feeling this is going to end up like the 0z ECM with the block being a little further south and the coldest air heading into Iberia.