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Seanlid

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Posts posted by Seanlid

  1. Living in Belfast and temp now is 4.2 so gradually the surface temp is dropping.  For those Snow-lovers (like myself) the great news is that the 500-850hpa temp is also dropping further, thus the precipitation moving across the province tonight and tomorrow will be falling as snow to low levels. The 'dam' is already at -5 right across a large swathe of the UK, so rain and sleet are less likely. Since there isn't a weather front crossing Northern Ireland tonight and tomorrow means we just get the precipitation from showers (sourced from troughs). Will be good though to have some nice snowball fights. :D

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  2. Yeah, definitely not a bad start to autumn, albeit a bit of unsettled weather as a result of the Low Pressure close by during the next few days. We never know where the Jetstream is going to wander from week to week. Thank god that during next week it begins to travel up and over the UK for a while, allowing a weak ridge of high to build - although there won't be wall-to-wall sunshine, more in the way of warmth and relatively cloudy conditions. There will still be some sunshine to be enjoyed too!

  3. 16 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    I think if the final extent finishes around the 2007/11/15 mark, you could say its a good example where its misleading because the ice pack is looking in such a state, you do worry what impacts it could have on next years melting season.

    In a way I'm not surprised the pack looks as bad as it is considering where we were in May in terms of extent but also how mild the winter was but no doubt this summer has been quite stormy and coupled with some noticetable warm shots, then the ice pack was always going to suffer

    Having said that, the weather patterns for this August has been crazy, totally different to last year where in general the weather was quite calm and probably saved 2015 from having an even lower extent than it was.

    The cold air wrapped around the GAC probably saved the ice on extent but it has done little to help the area inside the ice pack, of course we have seen instances of low concentrations within an ice pack before but what is unusual is just how widespread this is, of course assuming it does not melt between now and the end of the melt season, all that will re-freeze and wind direction could chuck some slightly older ice into that area anyways but it goes to show, if you have too many storms these days, the ice is going to suffer just as bad as a dipole except the difference is, its area that will be hurting more than extent but both are as bad as each other you would have to say.

     

    Yes, it will most certainly be interesting to see what happens during subsequent months; optimism needs to prevail...

  4. Some interesting suggestions from folk on here, however, the cost would be considerably high for some of the aforementioned ideas. A short-term (albeit a big help) would be to reduce soot! Soot—also known as black carbon—heats up the atmosphere because it absorbs sunlight. Black things do. That is basic physics. For years the institutions that focus on climate policy have played down the role of pollutants such as black carbon that stay in the atmosphere for a short time, that soot has been discovered to be a leading cause of snow and ice melting in the Arctic and the Himalayas, soot has a much faster influence on temperature than CO2, and that it is relatively easy to reduce soot.  At least then polar bear will stand a greater chance than if we don't act now! We need to begin somewhere.

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  5.  

    13 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    There are a few factors to consider with sea ice. First, is that salt water doesn't freeze until it reaches about -1.8C.
    The second factor is that as the surface cools and becomes denser, it sinks, allowing slightly warmer water to rise. This means that you need to cool the first 100m or so of the ocean close to freezing for lasting sea ice to form.
    Finally, while some parts of the Arctic will see temps a little below 0C for the next week, that's mainly over areas that already have ice cover.

     

    This is so true, and it's having a major impact on much of the arctic mammals, particularly polar bear! The melting of land-based ice and the expansion of the oceans as they have become warmer account about equally for observed increases in sea level. (Melting of sea ice does not raise sea level, since floating ice already displaces its equivalent in melt water.) Sea level has risen by roughly 17 cm (7 in) in the past 100 years. Although this is a relatively small amount, historical data indicate that mean sea level had been virtually unchanged for the previous 2,000 years. 

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