BalderstoneNick

I was thinking..put it away

None in Preston, but just got back from Stavely, about 1/2 foot!

Hi Dennis, can you explain to me what we are looking at there?

Piling up in the lakes at low levels https://www.fba.org.uk/windermere-ferry-cam

Yeah to this Jason, so many variables, including inversions where the temps are 'flipped' so 850's can be relatively high but temps and ground level can be around freezing at below all day. It's a bit like the 'will it snow' question we have in the uk isn't it! For this I generally just look at the 850-1000 charts to get an idea of the layer from clouds to ground. Normally not far off. Need the dam to be at least 130 (blue) on the attached I've found..for my locality anyway. Prob different in other areas

Indeed, just looking the the GEFS postage stamps for 192 and there is no firm favourite outcome yet. Great to see OPS in the main agreeing but way too early still. I'm still very much in the 'hope for the best but expect the worst' mind frame yet

Day 10 looks like it might give it another go further on. Sorry did I say that out loud

Sorry if this is common knowledge, but just for anyone who wished there was more ECM data to view, you can by simply going on the ECMWF website, they decided last year that more info would be freely available to the public: ECMWF | Charts APPS.ECMWF.INT

Seriously yes. There may have been an odd ensemble that picked it up in the far reaches and it disappeared next run (as you would expect that far out) but it wasn't until it got within the ECM op kind of time frame 168-240 that they suddenly started lining up with the opp. Total one off probably and never seen it again. Point is the Op is higher res out to 192. So you would expect that it's starting point at that time frame to be slightly or substantially superior to the end for later FI? Questioning myself as well as you? The t384 down to zero was a fluke I am sure and nothing is really worth looking at at that distance apart from maybe looking for any SSW effects on trop. Ps apart from Glacier point we had little access to other ensembles, drivers and indeed the in-depth physics knowledge. Not like we do now on here, so it's unlikely nothing would see it nowadays.

Was it 2010 or 2009 (or other notable cold spell) where the op picked it up at t384 and amazingly ran with it all the way until t00. Up to t144-168 the ensembles were all over the place like the Benny hill theme tune. Surely because it has a higher res it should be more accurate for the 4-8 day period and therefore slightly more accurate for the 10 day charts?

Wind direction charts don't seem too keen on anything from North, East or NE, unless I'm looking at it wrong?

Yep

Basically none are that accurate at 10 days, you will see the GFS on its own swings massively from run to run at that range. Best you can hope for is a general pattern, Try to look at GEFS ensembles or the anomalies

Energy looks to be digging SE, something to watch!