Damien

No, we haven't seen that. No, we don't care about what the UK's leading (in fact official?) meteorological forecaster has to say about the coming season ahead we all love and haven't experienced properly nationwide since the late 1980s. No, we have our heads in the sands. No, thank you for enlightening us... oh wise one.

I'm never gonna get any sleep tonight. :lol: When you were at school surely the textbooks didn't factor in greenhouse much - if at all? Thank you for pointing out something that was extremely relevant to my argument that I had missed. Kudos. (That being, of course... the weakness of northerly weather patterns in general - let alone in the modern age.) I was about to type 'We had these weather patterns a lot in the mid-2000s and they still failed to deliver' but then I saw your last point, re.: the south-easterly (often Turkish or in that (maritime) region), and I am inclined to agree on that: but I still believe current synoptics and climate change is going against a true easterly like that of the fabled 1987 or my beloved 1995/96. When I say current synoptics I go back to one of my earlier arguments on the forum of how sheer rare these things are: let alone all the 'ideal' synoptics needed to give us a cold winter based on that weather pattern/(proposed)(?) synopsis. Believe me - a lot had to come together in the atmosphere to give us the mid-1990s. The mid-1980s may have been just a natural variable (am I phrasing that right? sorry - tired), although these synoptics did indeed play a role in it: as they did in much earlier winters. Going back to most recent example though - which I of course as you will know from talking to me in the past always recommend for citing/citation/example usage - of the mid-1990s - that was then: imagine how much sheer synoptics are going to have to come together in the age of 'greenhouse' to give us our fabled 'modern cold winter', LOL (I shouldn't laugh really though... this is like mental trauma for us all). Factor into that as well the theory that the greenhouse effect may be actually changing our synoptics (I/we all mostly on here clearly say for the worst) so that such weather patterns - again let alone the more, shall I say... 'radical'(?) ones needed to get ourselves even a moderately decent cold set-up in the first place - become less prevalent in our meteorological future. You don't seem to have factored this in - your thoughts on that...? Or the climate models to see where they're going to. Or how rare such things are anyway, LOL!

How can a conservative website go on about encroaching ice? I thought they would have been more obsessed with warm weather and increasing temperatures? Strange. Where's Taras Incognito when you need him? Taras - you still in 'the Shed of the Soviets'? :lol:

Excellent post - I'll just add one thing: 4-5 days of sustainable cold are not worth looking forward too IMHO, for me. Well, maybe a bit, but they will be just so short, in the long run, and less likely with each mild Brown-Cameronian winter that goes by, that I will just come to not care about them. Granted, they can be sweet - but I/we all want long, cold days of abundant snow not the short snaps of sleety nothingness they will eventually evolve into. In Not By Fire... But By Ice, Robert Felix once told me he restrained a chapter on 'evolution' effects. He may be right - but the argument in reverse, of course, as well as in an (anti-)climatic effect, as global warming continues to consume us all in North-Western Europe. Back to work we go....

It did in 2006. The winter was mild. Climatically correct, but "these trends" developed in early winter 2002/03, 2004/05 (bar the one hit-and-miss (for most miss admittedly - take that into account) in February 2005), 2005/06, etc.. All the winters, bar the aforementioned, were mild. (Certainly snowless - à la December 2002.) No offence - but an even worse argument IMHO. January 2004 delivered squat. So did a few other occasions when there were "much-hyped" northerlies (led by the usual crowd of naïve idiots like toad, I have and have no far of saying). Interest in northerlies then diminished, and were replaced by interest in easterlies - when these failed to deliver, like I mentioned above, are we now back to northerlies? Very unusual memory, I may say. (Kind of political, actually, *ahem*. ) Consider the last "northerlies" we had were, like, 5 years ago (wasn't snowless winter 2003/04 the most 'northerly' (not that I doubt it though) winter on record since something like 1969?, LOL), and they delivered squat then, are you really that naïve to think that they will deliver 5 years on with yet more warming having happened, LOL? No offence, but your arguments will just get you burned - and, as a three-year somewhat 'veteran' of the boards, who has surely been burnt before (your neck of the woods, mate?), surely you should know this? Come on guys. Surely someone must have the meteorological arguments to pull down these arguments. I know it's sad; but it's true. Do you think I wanna sit here typing this; smashing peoples' dreams up like a Scrooge. :o Or even not evolve to alter our winter, as I explained above. :lol: By the way - if I recall correctly, there wasn't much precipitation in winter 2003/04 (the January northerly) either. If there was - it fell as rain, as consistent with the current greenhouse models and the 'modern' era. Bring back the '90s. D.

I'll chip in (probably for one last time) seeing as tomorrow is the "big day"...: Sad truth is you will probably be right - based again on the patterns of recent years (mild winter then slightly cool/mildly wintry (early) spring). Too right on oil + the economy too. What's the "triumphed story" this year? Some big high over North-Western Europe? Bah. I don't believe Joe B&stardi for a second: and I think the MetO will get it wrong when they go "below" tomorrow. Just as well I'll be in snowier plains anyway (CE).... And, unlike 'Captain Whingealot' (I can say this now all I want because I am off and won't need my Internet soon), I will enjoy the snow - not spend the entire winter posting about how 'meagre' or whatever it all is. "Roll a snowball for the kids... Jesus Christ don't keep it hid." "And the forecast's out on the Met Office website, read it on your monitor burn it in your.... head." Take care everyone.

OK guys I've not seen the models for a while... WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????? Is anymore coming? Never been as scared in my life. If that was Richter Scale #1 what the hell do Japan and LA go through (at Richter 6, etc.)?

Extreme rainfall - greenhouse; drought (inc. in the UK) - greenhouse. That one's the strangest to me. (Oh, and, of course, how a small crisp packet (yes, I do - and would of course encourage others to do so - put mine in the bin and recycle) lying there in the grass just by the side of the road could possibly be warming up the world by just lying there? I suppose the packets of crisps in my cupboard are also causing greenhouse gasses(2) - right? ) Don't believe the hype. Emissions deffo crisp packets - not sure....

Laughable. Just laughable. All this talk of global warming going on and you sit there talking about snow. Are you looking for the way to your nearest local comedy club but couldn't find it and/or got kicked out? Remember: less days at work lost due to snow. The sad reality we face - and, indeed, the sick mind of a capitalist. "Sick and tried... of always being sick and tired..."

Well said. Difference for me is I'll be in the Alps soon. Suffolkboy_- one good way to tell if a coming forecast will be proven verified (though this is not always the case - à la NOAA, Ian Currie, BG, etc.) is if the previous few months (prior to now - Oct. 1) have been (generally) correct. And have they been so far?

Noteto Note to Admins - I know you may not like me posting these "Archive.org" links, but this time may I do so anyway? I always enjoy reading TWO's forecasts and both respect and commend them for their general "first of the month" rule in regard to weather forecasts. (Compare this with the Met Office's "We must keep updating this (seasonal) forecast every week to assure it's right!" stance.) But: http://web.archive.org/web/20040901102422/...heroutlook.com/ That is practically the same forecast!!! Surely? Here's another one!!! http://web.archive.org/web/20030920005306/...heroutlook.com/ Again, same patterns. Come on TWO. Care to explain more on your methods this time? Note to anyone who may read this: I'm not doing this to attack TWO - I am doing this out of genuine surprise. I must read this same forecast every two years from TWO and yet when November comes nothing. So I'm challenging TWO - honestly - and with the maximum respect and patience they deserve with years now of experience - to explain this forecast in more detail this time and why they have come to these conclusions. Thank you.

Am I in a time warp? "November snow chance" - and even that picture! - is the same every year (or more likely every two as the memories age)! Come on people! TWO, pattern matching does not work. These are merely presenting weather patterns, like Metcheck's yearly "LRF" does. (Link.) As in 2005, just because there are *some* favourable weather patterns throughout the rest of the year (this year - the cooler summer; in 2005 - the cooler mid-September period), doesn't mean that the rest of the year will conform to the "norm". Surely this forecast is a "demo" or a "test"? October also being "a month of two halves" rings a bell as well. That said, this backs up my idea of it being a "2001/02-like" winter preceded by a 2001-like autumn (with a perhaps 2000-like November), rather ironically. :o

That said NOAA had a good summer, according to Paul (the NW forecasts are based on their output, yes?). If so, gulp. But the winter forecast has been "back-forth, back-forth" "cold-mild, cold-mild" for some time now - though the overall consensus seems to be a slightly cooler than average start followed by with a well above average end. So again as I said in the other thread maybe a very 2001/02-type character to this winter starting with a very 2001-like autumn(?). Certainly this summer *has* resembled 2001 in *some* aspects IMHO (mainly in it's poor end than anything else).

ENSO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTMon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...nino4SSTSea.gif

Even though I don't really trust it, just seen the NOAA forecast for the next few months/the full winter (by now). It really is looking dire if the Netweather winter forecast is based on that. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mSeaNorm.gif Let's see what the ECPC GFS update brings in a few days/late next week (hopefully). To me, at the moment, on those NOAA charts, the pattern is looking all too similar to recent years at the precise moment - a very cool/cold October across most of Northern Eurasia/Europe-Russia, with a followed by a significantly above average and south-south-westerly winter. :lol: But, fortunately we all know what the track record of the NOAA CFS is like is the long-range forecasting field. :lol: