B87
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CryoraptorA303 September is now the month with the fewest wet days on average, though not the driest in total amount. More late summer thunderstorms and occasional hurricane remnants probably causing the increase in heavier rainfall on fewer days. I think we will also see a 20c October in the next 2 decades. Current warmest Octobers by av max: 1995: 18.3c 2022: 18.3c 1969: 18.2c 2011: 18.1c 2023: 18.1c 1959: 17.8c 2005: 17.8c 2006: 17.8c
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CryoraptorA303 The most noticeable thing of all is that in the Heathrow record, there have been 12 Septembers sunnier than the preceeding August. No big deal, until you look at the years in question. 1958, 1968, 1971, 1979, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021. What did happen once a decade on average is now happening almost half of the time since 2006.
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CryoraptorA303 We are overdue a sunny July and August and a bone dry and sunny October/November, and maybe one of the sunniest Decembers on record with how many extremely dull ones we have had recently. 3 of the 4 dullest Decembers have occurred since 2010. 4 of the 5 dullest Augusts since 2008.
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Markus03 London averages about 110 wet days per year. That isn't one dry month out of a year.
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Markus03 We don't expect wet all the time. That is why the last 11 months have been so terrible.
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Markus03 I wish we had 15c and sun. Nothing but cool, wet and cloudy for the forseeable future. In Absence of True Seasons It has felt like being in a warmer version of Glasgow or Bergen. Constant rain and rarely seeing the sun.
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CryoraptorA303 The long term sunshine average for April is 177 hours. The last 10 years average 191 hours. I'd be happy with anything above 160 at this point (which is now impossible).
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CryoraptorA303 The average conditions for late April are however 16-17c with partly cloudy skies. We had 3 warmish days that had some sun, but plenty of cloud as well. We haven't had a day with 10+ hours of sun since 14th September 2023. A 120 hour April is not normal at all.
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raz.org.rain Any change to something more typical for the time of year always gets pushed back, and has done since mid March. Now 8c and raining at the end of April, when it would usually be 16-17c, dry with partly cloudy skies.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
B87 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
danm This spring would be considered very wet and dull for an autumn. It has definitely been ruined by the SSW. -
Wade Hopefully we will get an August where the coldest day is 25c to make up for it.
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Alderc 2.0 I give up at this point. Hopefully 2025 will be better. It can't be any worse.
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raz.org.rain 2018 turned at the start of May. There is no sign of anything changing in the first half of May this year. Yet another cold and cloudy day, currently 11c.
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danm The temps on that forecast look better than the 12-16c on mine. But I'd expect a few 20c days with mostly partly cloudy and dry days at this time of year. No sign of anything settled anytime soon.
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Alderc 2.0 I'd also expect the majority of days at this time of year to be partly cloudy, rather than a sheet of grey with a 10 minute spell of sun. We had clearer skies in January, the 2nd dullest month of the year.
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Here's an absolute joke of a forecast going into May. Extreme dullness, wet and only a handful of days approaching average. Will feel more like October than May with the complete lack of sun.
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richie3846 We also shouldn't be set up for constantly below average sunshine and above average rainfall either, yet here we are. 2019 was the last year that had a fairly even mix of sunshine. Since 2020 it seems like we are usually below average, with 1 or 2 sunny months. 2022 was the only year since then where that sunny spell coincided with the summer.
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richie3846 Temperature still needs to average above 20c though, and almost every year we get the 4 months of 20c. You'd expect to see some Septembers and Junes averaging below 20c, yet they are nowhere near as common as a sub 200 hour May-Aug.
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We average 4 months with highs above 20c, and usually never have any trouble getting those 4 months most years. When it comes to the 4 months above 200 sun hours... nowhere to be seen.
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Azazel And it looks like we will be very lucky to get 30 hours of sun from the first week of May. I mentioned yesterday that if we have a 200 hour sun deficit by the start of June, then we will need a repeat of summer 2022, plus a 230 hour September (which would be the sunniest on record), just to get back to the running average. Hopefully we get a dry, sunny October with an average high of 20c to make up for the lack of spring-like weather in the actual spring.
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I don't want to see anyone cheering for a SSW to ruin spring ever again. 2 in a row now. Hopefully 2025 will be more seasonal regarding rainfall and sunshine.
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SunnyG Then June manages to combine 1990, 1991, 1998, 2012, 2016 all into one.
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TonyH That would also include recording sunshine the second the sun is above the horizon, which is not possible using the WMO threshold. You usually lose about 2 hours where the recorder will not detect anything.
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So probably well into June before we see anything warm then. Last year the warmest day of the spring was only 22.7c. This year could be even worse?
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Stabilo19 Because the new sunshine sensor under reports, so cant be compared to old data, or other locations in the UK or Europe.
