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Matthew.

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Everything posted by Matthew.

  1. For my location we had the best May in living memory and summer is on course to be one of the best of the century only behind 2006, 2013. Depends on what August is like but I can’t see it betterin them 2 years here. 2003, 2014, 2016 could be beaten though.
  2. Interestingly 1989 had a SSW in February too and that’s the best overall May to August bar 1959 maybe 1976
  3. If these conditions continued to the end of August it would be the summeriest May to August and the best summer bar 1976. Can it continue another 9 weeks? 2006 had a great June and July but lost out because of August and it 2003 July the same problem and 2013 similar in different periods. Wheras 1989 and 1995 will be harder to beat with smaller periods of unsettled conditions. What a summer though!
  4. In 1976 temperatures exceeded 32c on a 15 day run with 5 days at 35c I’m getting a little nervous with the latest model runs. Pleased I don’t live in the south
  5. I think what’s remarkable here is the perfect position of the high pressure. In 1995 it was just too far west until a few days in. 1976 though was perfection and we might even match it for 1 week. Can we make it 2 like it did back then? This year has been a year to remember!
  6. The models this morning are giving the impression of the best last third of June since 1976. Outstanding charts this morning again with 22c-30c across the board easily from sunday. Edit: 35c somewhere from ECM on friday
  7. Well from the runs tonight I wouldn’t be surprised some areas seeing the maximum break in terms of sunshine at 135hoursish between tomorrow and the end of the month. Incredible stuff! Brings back memories from 2013
  8. 2 or 3 day spells of this is pretty typical in most summers but to get an extended period is much rarer. In fact I can only think of 4 summers to do so since the 00’s such as 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018 maybe? Exceptional stuff with the remarkable model agreement at a textbook time
  9. Once again the model consensus is for another extreme event of 2018 with a June heatwave with bags and absolutely bags of sunshine in the last 7 days days. All models once again with mediterranian style weather. Ukmo has a bullseye high
  10. What a fantastic year of model watching this has been! Hope the ECM is on the money
  11. GEM, GFS, ECM, UKMO say HEATWAVE ON THE FROM SUNDAY!!!
  12. The best summers do see the trademark of high pressure in the last third of June with dry the dominant feature of the month
  13. West Wales is racing ahead with sunshine at 100hours whereas some parts of the east have had a third of the value to the 10th
  14. I think notable thing will be how dry this June has been looking ahead. Many of the best summers had dry junes
  15. That low for Thursday will really sweep away the cobwebs and North Sea cloud
  16. I’m sure someone a couple weeks back posted that trades would surge and with a lag effect around middle of June but then looked like easing off so expect the expected really. Maybe things should improve last week of June by what I saw back then
  17. It doesn’t look like the year of Greenland blocking either so I can’t see a poor summer without this feature
  18. Eastern areas will really notice the difference once the dull drizzly skies are replaced by fair weather cloud and a real warmup for places close to the eastern coast. 3 weeks this North Sea pattern has held!
  19. Lots of low pressure around Greenland too. Much potential there!
  20. Yes quite a chang. Be interesting to see where the ECM goes further on
  21. I can’t see anything concerning just yet. Looks like we finally pick up a westerly flow but the Azores ridge looks poised to bounce back on the ECM
  22. The unsettled return does just like a blip. There’s many signals out there saying we may be in for the warmest summer of the decade. ECM 240 sees a quick return of the Azores ridge. Because we’re at solar minimum the meridional jet looks like continuing and high pressure looks non existent around Greenland. A few similarities to the Ssw year of 2013
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