Matthew.
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Posts posted by Matthew.
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Both Ukmo and ECM have the 20+ isotherm well north by as next week progresses. The uppers are actually higher than predicted temperatures for my location! Also I’ve never seen such remarkable uppers at +144 from Ukmo before. Could be an interesting end of next week as the Atlantic front tries to nudge in
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40c northern Cornwall? Foehn effect
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Looking at the list above August 1912 looks to be the wettest EWP since records of summer months. It’s so phenomenal would this be the wettest EWP of any month?
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Rainfall creeping up nicely in teeside
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I wonder if some places will hit 100mm by Thursday which would only be the 13th June. That must be 2007, 2012 standards
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Since that spectacular 2nd half of February the first week of March has been very wet here. Past examples which turned very wet after special weather include March 2012, April 2007. The question is will this be the start of a much wetter period as the other examples or will it be a blip? I have a feeling it’s not a blip and a run of months now may be all about the rain.
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Here’s the winter CET anomalies since 1989 by the 81-10 average
1989 +5.8 1990 +5.0 1991 -4.6 1992 +0.1 1993 +0.4 1994 +0.3 1995 +4.0
1996 -4.6 1997 -1.6 1998 +4.6 1999 +2.6 2000 +2.5 2001 -0.3 2002 +2.4
2003 +0.4 2004 +1.9 2005 +2.0 2006 -1.3 2007 +5.6 2008 +3.2 2009 -3.1
2010 -6.4 2011 -4.3 2012 +1.5 2013 -2.2 2014 +4.5 2015 +0.4 2016 +6.3
2017 +2.4 2018 -0.7 2019 +3.9
31 years, 3c overall either way 9 warmer, 5 colder
2019 was 17th warmest in 360 years which means 8/17 have occurred since 1989
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Incredible today. Tomorrow looks like another chance to beat the record, maybe south-east?
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By the end of Wednesday we’ll have had 9 days of maximum temperatures 12-17c, sunshine virtually throughout and relatively calm. To get them 3 ingredients in February in such a prolonged period is a first for here and will be a historic month along with lying snow on the 2nd and morning of the 3rd. This is up there with the most magical months of the decade for me.
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58 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
With the exception of February 2017, Februarys since 2014 have all been sunnier than average for England overall to varying degrees. 2019 is following suit.
To be a bit clearer I see Thundery Wintery Showers put it well in the other thread, winter moans thread.
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21 minutes ago, Mr TOAD said:
I'm sick to death of sunshine already and it's only February.
Unbelievable really how prolonged it’s been since the middle of the month. Very unusual for this country!
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Looking at the charts Feb 98 was better for the south with it windier and cloudier for the north?
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24 minutes ago, Don said:
It’s the duration of this warm spell that’s concerning.
Very unusual but March 2012 showed if does happen, on and off for a month. Never known it this early though from experience, everything will be in bloom before the months out
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5 hours ago, mb018538 said:
I thought that too....you’d think the strength of the sun in June would burn it off much quicker. I guess the cloud deck is that much thicker in early summer with the contrast between sea and land? Was gone by 10am here, had a few days in June last year that lasted til lunchtime
The position of the high to the south east is helping with that. Last June it positioned more to the east north east thus making all the difference dragging in much larger amounts of cloud. We have perfect Synoptics at the moment pretty much.
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Unbelievable stuff out there. Good Late April weather in Feb is great! 5 days of this already this month and more to come. Can’t remember anything as good as this in Feb before for longevity and sunshine
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Fabulous day, and more to come!
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2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Eh? What exactly constitutes a 'special' mild spell for you in February? For a start, it's looking like the best spell of mild February weather since at least 2008. And tomorrow until at least next Wednesday would certainly be classed as prolonged and by no means 'quick'.
Looking at max/min values the means for the next week are coming in around 10c which is normal for late April. It doesn’t really come much milder historically for the time of year.
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It looks very December 2015 like. Friday sees warm air surging up from the depths of the Caribbean. In fact the 2nd half of Feb is close in terms of temperature too. Unbelievable stuff!
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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
I find it quite astounding the ecm ensemble has a 4 day run of 850 temps at 10c in February. We’d be happy with that in July. It’s a bit mind boggling to be honest.
It’s the thing of weather fairytales so will have to keep watch. Very interesting times for extreme watchers and record breakers. After last weekend a period like March 2012 could be on the cards! ECM has been consistent too.
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The difference between summer 2011, 1st half of summer 2016 and summer 07 being in a cloudy, cool westerly flow to slack low pressure overhead which at least gives sunshine whilst torrential downpours also.
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Summer 2007 wasn’t to bad in the east with many sunny periods interspersed between the wet periods. I wouldn’t mind that. In fact I think the continued meridianal flow will continue with being a solar min year. It might even be a plume summer if we get the block to the east. Another point is about the qbo. If it was east then I would be going for west based ridges through the Atlantic but that’s not the case this year so another bonus in my book.
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Winter was short this year here, 3-3half weeks maybe. It was colder than average in that spell though
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well that’s 3 models at just +120 going for 3 days of exceptional uppers, absolutely incredible! Thursday-Saturday seems to be historic potentially.