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Matthew.

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  1. Latest Gfs shows high pressure strongly in charge with easterlies in by next weekend with uppers still around 4c+ Sst temperatures in the North Sea hovering above 10c still. 4c warmer than March this year The mid March easterlies got down to a remarkable-13c Late November 2010 had a really favourable pattern composing a front loaded winter with the wind in from the north
  2. Matthew.

    Winter 2018/19

    Several things stand out from previous February CET analysis here 1. A cold or average November most likely 2. A cold or average December looks likely 3. A average or cold Jan is more likely 4. A mild February looks likely Front loaded Winter?
  3. Matthew.

    Winter 2018/19

    The NAO forecast in May was supportive of a positive regime. I have a feeling a mild one is on the way overall but pressure patterns are always up in the air for now. Snow events can turn up at times even in generally mild winters.
  4. Here’s my top 5 summers of the century for my eastern location 1. 2013 2. 2006 3. 2018 4. 2003 5. 2014 The best June-July would be 2006 but July 2006 and 2013 were memorable. The best August probably 2003 but 2016 was great too here. 2018 is my favourite May though. None of these summers would be a match for 1976, 89 or 95. Still waiting to see one but maybe not for a few years now. 76 is probably like 63 for winter and 59 for autumn and 1893 for spring-incredibly rare
  5. Matthew.

    Autumn 2018

    I would love to see a September and October like 1959 but this at best is probably 1 in a lifetime event. After the extended settled spell it finished with some Autumn storms too
  6. 2013 will remain in first place for summer of the 2000’s here. 2006 and 2018 both have good and bad but will wait and see what happens in the next week or so. 2018 was poor in the first 3 weeks of June then good and bad in August. Whereas 2006 was better in June and better in July overall but worse in August so not sure which I would choose out the 2. Still very good nonetheless. 2003 and 2014 follow but will have to read up on other years aswell to see if any match these 2 reasonably good summers too
  7. For my location we had the best May in living memory and summer is on course to be one of the best of the century only behind 2006, 2013. Depends on what August is like but I can’t see it betterin them 2 years here. 2003, 2014, 2016 could be beaten though.
  8. Interestingly 1989 had a SSW in February too and that’s the best overall May to August bar 1959 maybe 1976
  9. If these conditions continued to the end of August it would be the summeriest May to August and the best summer bar 1976. Can it continue another 9 weeks? 2006 had a great June and July but lost out because of August and it 2003 July the same problem and 2013 similar in different periods. Wheras 1989 and 1995 will be harder to beat with smaller periods of unsettled conditions. What a summer though!
  10. Matthew.

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    In 1976 temperatures exceeded 32c on a 15 day run with 5 days at 35c I’m getting a little nervous with the latest model runs. Pleased I don’t live in the south
  11. Matthew.

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    I think what’s remarkable here is the perfect position of the high pressure. In 1995 it was just too far west until a few days in. 1976 though was perfection and we might even match it for 1 week. Can we make it 2 like it did back then? This year has been a year to remember!
  12. Matthew.

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    The models this morning are giving the impression of the best last third of June since 1976. Outstanding charts this morning again with 22c-30c across the board easily from sunday. Edit: 35c somewhere from ECM on friday
  13. Matthew.

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    Well from the runs tonight I wouldn’t be surprised some areas seeing the maximum break in terms of sunshine at 135hoursish between tomorrow and the end of the month. Incredible stuff! Brings back memories from 2013
  14. Matthew.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    2 or 3 day spells of this is pretty typical in most summers but to get an extended period is much rarer. In fact I can only think of 4 summers to do so since the 00’s such as 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018 maybe? Exceptional stuff with the remarkable model agreement at a textbook time
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