Methuselah

Apparently - I assume - some folks believe that science can be invalidated by its practitioners' voting habits?

'Other experts' - Jonathan Powell!

What a Panza!

Aye Shed, Ian's suggestions does seem to be becoming rather more likely...Anywho, looking on the bright side, we'll have a week or two in which to tidy our toy-cupboards!

http://thesiweather.com/2013/12/03/1215-pm-global-sea-ice-areal-extent-at-highest-level-since-1994-southern-hemisphere-continues-on-a-record-run-for-this-time-of-year/ True, false or 'information' snow?

It was also wrong!

Then again: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_xZeFLN00w

Of course you can, Ian - which was my point: the weather can, and does, do the unexpected?

Tbh SW, I'd give it little credence even if it were the ECM...Even with all three main models in agreement, things still often go pear-shaped.

And I forgot to ask the obvious question: has anyone ever fed 1962's data into a major model and seen what happens?

Indeed Ian...But, as with 1962-esque developments, how likely is to actually evolve like that?

Ah'll be back!

It's Mugly's ghost...

^^Watts Up With That!

I think that that's where the validity, in citing previous winters' charts, comes into play...Given, say, the a chart for 3/12/62 (and somehow not knowing it was such!) how many of us would be able to make an accurate 10-15 day forecast? Air is a fluid, and can't really be compartmentalized into convenient blocks - not without encountering the obvious pitfalls associated with gross over-simplification, anyway... God, I don't what it's going to be like in 10 days' time!

Indeed...This'll be the 51st year of waiting. Every December, it seems, folks are rather too eager (with varying degrees of sophistication) to shoehorn anticyclones into 'desirable' locations...But surely, when dealing with anything chaotic, the list of 'if thens' just gets too long and/or convoluted to make sense?? I'm sure I could post a bunch of charts from 1962, and then claim that it shows how things 'could' evolve this time...But, in truth, it wouldn't do that at all, IMO; it would merely show what did happen, precisely once.

That's a Jackson Pollock original, isn't it?

Just to keep things in some kind of perspective I think the folks who make up all these scare-stories should be taken out and shot!

I was only out by 1.5!

Boris Island?

Exactly! I don't think we'll see sustained cold until sometime in January...Can I prove that? Of course I can't!

I agree with you, ABCD...But, if folks make claims, then what is wrong with questioning them? Does the number of words really make any difference? For what it's worth, I'm plenty convinced that we are about to see a 'potentially' notable Arctic Blast!

So...you have extra data?

Will you please desist from rubbishing the GFS: it may not be the best model in the world, but it does give us a 'rough guide' as to what's likely to happen...As do the ECM, BOM, JMA or whatever...

Indeed!