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Ed Stone

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Everything posted by Ed Stone

  1. Could be a tad interesting, precipitation-wise...?
  2. Not the worst set of GEFS 06Z ensembles I've ever seen -- but, not necessarily the best, either...? I think the GFS Operational is playing the 'outlier card' again, so may need special consideration? Winter's coming!
  3. Our new Lidl is surrounded by super-duper hi-tech downlighters, which, I presume, emit polarised light, as it's so hard to see whether they're even on or not. The wholesale changeover to such street furniture must be the way to go, IMO: not only does it consume only a tiny fraction of the power traditional lighting uses, it doesn't brighten the night sky, at all... Nae so good, for snow-watching though, I suspect?
  4. Not a bad finish to today's GFS 00Z Operational...if you happen to like such synoptics, that is? And even the GEFS ensembles are nae bad! Too good to be true...?
  5. Nothing extreme in tonight's GEF 12Z ensembles; but, there seems to be a very weak warming signal, late on...? More likely to be random scatter...hopefully! All in all, a bit ?
  6. Very close to being a November stonker:
  7. That's the thing, with wholesale pressure-rises -- the weather on the ground can be extremely sensitive to relatively minor movement/orientation...? So, it's far too soon to be getting antsy about 'less than ideal' solutions.
  8. Forgive me, Father...for I have sinned! I succumbed to a temptation-of-the-flesh and ate a tin of beef madras. I am a hypocrite! AGW theory must, of course, be a hoax...? But, wait: hope, there is, young padawan: Greta Thunberg rejects environmental award WWW.BBC.CO.UK She turned down the prize money and said "the climate movement does not need any more awards".
  9. Bin the GFS 06Z, everybody knows it's crap!
  10. All seems normal to me, MIA -- the Arctic sea-ice is beginning its eighteenth successive 'recovery' in eighteen successive Autumn refreeze cycles...? &
  11. GFS 00Z Operational maintains a block, throughout, this morning. So, so far, so good? But it is very-much on the colder side of the ensembles: Ergo, any ejaculations regarding 'how much snow and where' are a tad premature...?
  12. Come on, Fred...You've been saying that (or was that about Solar cycles -- keeping-up with the ever-moving goalposts does get a tad confusing!) since 2003...? But, if anyone really wants to know just where these claims come from, they'd better pay a visit to Piers Corbyn's website...Piers is to science as Jeremy is to fiscal responsibility?
  13. Aye, Minus 10 -- of course it does...Does it make psycho-killers go on rampages too? Does it turn lead into gold?
  14. Eh, feb? Most of the really severe winter storms I can recall: the one in January 1968 that wiped-out thousands of sheep, the Braer storm in 1993(?), the December 1981 one that sunk the Penlee lifeboat, the February 1978 monster-blizzard that buried the SW...were all associated with deep lows...?
  15. One for the Scotland thread, methinks...? Quadruple rainbow photographed in Orkney WWW.BBC.CO.UK The photographer who captured the image of the third and fourth arcs described the sight as "amazing".
  16. Well, I say, old chap -- today was a total spiffer, thank you: sunshine all the way! So, onto today's 12Zs and what they suggest? Not a lot, really? And now, the GEFS ensembles: Well, I suppose I could witter-on about 'if this' or 'if that'...But, what's the point? The model says what the model says...?
  17. Still looking at some kind of -NAO pattern, according to today's GEFS 00Zs, with the GFS Operational ending on an encouraging note...? In the meantime, things still look a tad wet.
  18. So, today's GFS 12Z arrives at this (never to materialise) situation: And the GEFS ensembles even suggest the possibility of a short burst of -7C uppers, on the way: So, as ever, while the building-blocks continue to align, more runs are needed...?
  19. But they do (or, rather, should) act as a salutary warning to anyone who repeatedly cites the efforts of their favourite armchair forecaster, without having a clue as to what probability even means? After all, the number of Snowmageddon 'forecasts' that are anywhere near being correct, on a consistent basis, is a vanishingly small subset of all the forecasts made...? I guess someone must have bought copies of all those idiotic books of 'methods'...for winning the Lotto!
  20. Still sort-of blocked at T+384 -- though, of course, the details are irrelevant at such a range...And, when and where will the PV ramp up? GEFS 06Z ensembles don't look to be exceptionally scattered, but the Operational and Control runs do end-up falling from opposite sides of the trolley...Or the water ski! Och well...More runs needed!
  21. Not much sign of a +NAO setting-in yet, according to the GFS 00Z...?
  22. You're just irked because Sydney's in Australia!
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