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Ed Stone

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Everything posted by Ed Stone

  1. As is often the case, in 'stuck' situations, the GEFS posted ensembles don't say an awful lot, due to their being centred on a single locality -- in this case Leicestershire: Consequently, temperature-trends don't appear to be going anywhere in particular...?
  2. An interesting end to the GFS 12Z...it doesn't look all that different to what it was like, back in May: a coldish trough just to our west and an ocean of warm air still stuck to the south and southeast, and a very kinky PFJ... And, still there's a -NAO! Who knows what's going on? Could it have something to do with the current Solar Minimum
  3. The way I'm seeing things, the biggest (to mix metaphors) elephant-in-the-ointment is the presence of, with not much more than two-weeks until the start of meteorological winter, 20C+ uppers anywhere on the charts...?
  4. Well, the scrag-end of the GFS 00Z looks different: And, unfortunately, the 00Z Operational does not show up, in the ensembles -- but, here goes, anyway: I wonder what effects, in the long term, the warmth over Eastern Europe will have?
  5. Climate emergency 'clear and unequivocal' WWW.BBC.CO.UK Around 11,000 scientists have endorsed research that says the world is facing a climate emergency.
  6. There's some stonking cold building, up to the NE...One to watch?
  7. None of this nonsense bothers me in the slightest...I'm an analogue, and proud of it!
  8. Morning peeps, I don't really know what to make of today's GFS 00Z Operational, as we seem not to be headed in any particularly clear direction -- it all ends on a rather messy note: And then, there are the ensembles, which suggest neither an upward nor a downward trend in temperatures: And, off to the farm I go!
  9. I think that the GEFS 12Z ensembles add a bit of perspective to our excitement: the operational run is one of the coldest in the pack... It might be cold bias, but let's hope it's not -- the warmer ensemble-members haven't had much success, of late?
  10. Well, the 12Z Operational certainly ends with a degree of stonkeriety...We could be on the cusp of something special???!!! A slow, steady and relentless descent into winter...for a change?
  11. And, as the science and data become unequivocal/incontrovertible, the efforts to refute them become ever more dependent on logical fallacies...?
  12. Indeed! And, I'm hoping that the main interactions, between the very warm and very cold (relatively speaking) air-masses, will occur to our east or southeast: I have a 'thing' for long-fetch northeasterlies!
  13. The large-scale synoptic pattern is clearly unusual, what with the persistent -NAO; but how (if at all) will all that very warm air, down around the eastern Mediterranean affect things...? The GEFS 00Z ensembles don't really point toward anything in particular just yet, so we'll just have to hope that the -NAO persists...it has, after all, already defied myriad rumours of its demise! And now for the 06Z!
  14. Just for a wee bit of fun, here are the GEFS 12Zs for Moscow. There are some stonkers in them, too!
  15. 12Z Operational is looking very good, for further-on down the line...An incipient stonker!!! A stonker-in-waiting even!!! Not too bothered by the details, but it'd be a humdinger of a -NAO...were it to materialise!
  16. As anticipated, the GFS 06Z Op. has lurched toward the colder side of the ensembles, once again. Where are the swingometers! Given what transpired, last year, I am surprised how Day 10 charts are still awarded such credibility...? But, they are interesting nonetheless!
  17. My point in posting this is not political; it's where the science points: Labour pledges 'zero carbon' homes by 2022 WWW.BBC.CO.UK New builds would have solar panels and super-efficient insulation, the party says. IMO, we need our upcoming problems with/solutions to Climate Change entirely taken out of the hands of politicians...We just need to do this!
  18. Agreed. If it comes off...? I'd expect the North Sea SSTs to be too high for snow near the East Coast...But then, higher SSTs mean higher cloud-tops?
  19. The GFS 00Z Operational at T+384 is as good a caveat as you'll ever see (DO NOT TAKE ME SERIOUSLY!) IMO -- though, it's not impossible that WAA will end-up just where we don't need it, as there's still plenty of warm air, down there? And, though the GEFS pressure ensemble shows quite a lot of spread/scatter, that scatter need not be reflected in temps -- at least, not at this rather nondescript time-of-year? More runs needed?
  20. Oh dear...The 12Z Operational looks destined for the Recycle Bin of Doom! Let's see what the GEFS ensembles have to say?
  21. Considerable scatter evident among the GEFS 06Z pressure- ensembles, though less so regarding temps...The GFS Operational even seems to be behaving itself today?
  22. Out of interest, what is the current thermosphere temperature? And what was it, before it fell?
  23. Quelle surprise...? And, down the toilet, she goes: another tranche of well-earned corporate-welfare! Fracking halted after government pulls support WWW.BBC.CO.UK Drilling for shale gas will cease in England - but the government stops short of an outright ban.
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