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Methuselah

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Everything posted by Methuselah

  1. Methuselah
    A ghastly end to an increasingly ghastly day...4.5C, moderate NNW wind and repeated rain showers...
  2. Methuselah
    Not at all bad, the now: 5.1C and quite sunny. However, there appears to be a bunch of thundery-looking showers approaching from the north.
  3. Methuselah
    I'm not bothered by next week's potential warmth as it has no bearing whatsoever, on long-term prospects. I am with BFTP, as far as the meandering jet goes, so, at this stage in the proceedings, it hardly matters whether meridionality is producing warm southerlies or cold northerlies; it's the buckling itself that matters? The only way is...whichever way it is!
  4. Methuselah
    I'm already looking forward to it, SS!
  5. Methuselah
    I'm glad our Novembers are shorter than theirs...
  6. Methuselah
    Indeed Rambo: IMO, too many peeps radically adjust their long-term expectations as-and-when the GFS & Co change their 15-day prognostications; which, given that said models alter their said prognostications more often than I change my socks, all seems a wee bit premature...? Don't panic Mr Mainwearing!
  7. Methuselah
    Zero to sixty in three-fifths of a nanosecond?
  8. Methuselah
    I'd rather we invested in renewables myself, Mok.
  9. Methuselah
    Blimey. My guess of 10.8 (unless I've forgotten it!) is in with a chance...
  10. Methuselah
    Expressing low confidence seems the right thing to do, to me; it sure beats the bluster, over-confidence and hubris that one associates with many of those self-styled LRFers who have far less knowledge/data available than the Met does, IMO...? I'd far rather see someone admit to not knowing everything than a bunch of silly predictions for widespread snow and blizzards - on, say, January 27. Super computers or not.
  11. Methuselah
    It's great to see the building blocks slowly falling into place...but, as the other cliche goes, let's get the cold in first and the snow will surely follow...?
  12. Methuselah
    We could do with a new thread, lass: General Model-Discussion and The Search for Pear-Shaped Synoptics?
  13. Methuselah
    In that case, we might even have another correlation to work with: one based on the gradient in the last week of October? The longer the advance is delayed, the steeper its gradient will be (on average) when it does finally get its 'aris in gear?
  14. Methuselah
    So, on two out of three recent mammoths, all we saw here in the UK was a pygmy shrew!
  15. Methuselah
    Well, well, well - that was a shock to the system: the sun went behind a cloud!
  16. Methuselah
    IMO, even when there's a massive west-east zonal system working, things are chaotic enough; but, with synoptics as they currently are (in the run-up to a GSM?) with big blobs of HLB, it's even more difficult for the models to resolve than ever...? As you say, it's been this way for almost a year already...and things could get worse (or better) before they get better (or worse)?
  17. Methuselah
    Just so long as we see things edging away from full-blown zonality, I'm happy, Fred...As you say: it's encouraging.
  18. Methuselah
    We'll need to get Sfebruary out the way first...
  19. Methuselah
    I fear it'll be a Sod's Law weekend...in the only places that are really cold enough, there'll be no precipitation; in coastal areas (like here) however, where there will be precipitation, things'll not be cold enough for any snow?
  20. Methuselah
    It's 'far out' all right!
  21. Methuselah
    Anywho, today is another stonker: unbroken (since this morning's cirrostratus layer moved away) sunshine and up to 12.5C at midday. A tad breezy though.
  22. Methuselah
    I'm very much liking that, as quite a few cold winters have been preceded by a blocked Novembers...The only drawback being - of course - that quite few haven't!
  23. Methuselah
    A tad corny I know...But, with all that's happening model-wise, let's hope that we're not about to witness a re-run of General Cluster's last stand?
  24. Methuselah
    Thunder possible?
  25. Methuselah
    At this stage Dami, and with 'some' signals suggesting a front-loaded (when was the last time we heard that?) winter, I'd suggest that, 'who knows?' would be the likeliest answer... For some reason SB (proper frontal snow, in October being rarer than hens' teeth) I'd guess that any such activity will be confined to high ground. I hope I'm wrong!
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