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Everything posted by Methuselah
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It must be my age, B...I've lost count of how many 'battleground snow events' have produced nowt more than about 20 minutes' sleet. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best??? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
In other words - be it kosher or not - it's just, as Old Bill would have said, much ado about nothing? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Indeed...Until someone lets me see the forecast, I'll be taking it with a pinch of salt...and an open mind! -
Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aye Malcolm - there's no need for Sydney to unpack his willy warmer, just yet? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Which might just tie-in with the very cold uppers, to our NW and NE, shown on the GFS 12Z? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks as if - GFS-wise, at any rate - the overnight/early morning runs' usual eastward 'realignment' has been offset by the 12Z's customary westward 'correction'...? A very transient snow event, for some lucky eastern members? Very possibly...A reason not to concentrate on what happens immediately following Xmas? No. IMO... As JH keeps saying: comparing 00Zs/06Zs with 12Zs/18Zs is futile... -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I just hope that this month's (should it happen) SSW has a similar outcome to that of December 1984: a winter to remember!! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
But, if they're all wrong? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sorry Karl...the Para run off with all your presents... an MUI is a serious offence!? -
This might seem a dumb question, Catacol (it probably is!) but is your favourable 'vortex stretch[ing]' behind the gradual eastward migration, around the Arctic, of sub-25C uppers?
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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
If the Para is anything to go by, most of any snowfall looks like being confined to the far northeast of Scotland - all-in-all a somewhat dreich and to the week? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
And the GFS's grand finale: And the 00Z GFS ensemble, as I'm sure the uncertainty hasn't disappeared in only 6 hours! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well waddayouknow...Just in time for Xmas... -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
As usual, the GFS 06Z has the cold air largely staying to our east; which is okay, as I tend to agree with BFTP, that the really cold air will arrive from the NNW-NNE, and not directly from the Continent...? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Absolutely Frosty...as long as there's enough blocking around, to stall the Atlantic systems, there'll be opportunities knocking aplenty. And I mean that most sincerely folks! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Aye. It just adds more confusion to the already high level of uncertainty, resulting in even more anxiety... -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
No-one's reached for the mighty BOM yet, so it can't be all that bad??? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
No worries people. The pros have always gone for uncertainty. ✴ -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Blizzards on Lowestoft beach, anyone? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I fear we are seeing an indefinite 'trend' in operation here, shaky? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Of course it's for Aberdeen, A252...that's where the op's cold air is meant to hit first. -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's almost as if the building blocks, the SSW at T+384 and the overpowering smell of freshly ground coffee, have all gone into stasis? I think my TARDIS must've got stuck! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Surprise, surprise...after December 21, the GEFS op is an outlier. Who'd a thunk it! -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
But...Isn't posting charts that'll never verify the very bread-and-butter of this thread, Blue...? -
The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)
Methuselah replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
06Z GFS looking interesting @ T+348: And even more so @ T+384: So, again, the week immediately after Xmas could be exciting?