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Ed Stone

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Everything posted by Ed Stone

  1. You're right enough, Mike: apart from a few storms along the trough, the best chances ought be once the unstable conditions fully take over? A whole day's insolation to play with?
  2. I'm thinking that Tuesday and Wednesday nights'll both be warm...CET could even go above 9C?
  3. The goodness for that...The 12Z ends on a much more positive note than the 06Z did! Let's just hope that the FV3 does likewise?
  4. I'm glad to see the threat of prolonged cold dreichness reduce; a much more benign run (so far!) -- once the thunderstorms are out of the way!
  5. Nowt much new, with the GFS...Thursday still looks unsettled with average temps: Just how haywire will the longer-term outlook go, though?
  6. An 'interesting' end to the FV3: And, as for the Ensemble? For a moment there, I thought I was looking at post-Brexit growth-predictions!
  7. If this materialises, many peeps could see more thunder-days, in a five-day period, than in the whole of last summer? Though, having said that, ONE is hardly a tough total to beat!
  8. The all-important questions is: will Sunday's potential 'waft' give the SE half of Englandshire a warm and muggy day?
  9. So here we are at Wednesday, and the trough has moved through, ushering-in a change to more unsettled, less-warm weather: What happens next is (as the chopping and changing ensembles clearly show) uncertain...It could literally go any which way, longer term?
  10. It looks as though, once the current fine spell comes to an end, by Wednesday, we'll enter a 'downward spiral' into a pattern increasingly determined by some kind of HL blocking, and with winds originating from more of a northerly quarter? FV3: GFS Op: The 00Z GEFS Ensemble isn't exactly a 'thing of beauty' either...But its stark difference to yesterday's 12Z does highlight the pitfalls involved, when comparing one run to another, perhaps...?
  11. The GEFS 12Z ensemble is -- for what it's worth -- suggestive of an early May warm-up; the Op, however, now sits at the warmer side:
  12. And, just after that, we're stuck under a slack blob of low pressure...yet more convective potential?
  13. And a wee waft of TM ought to make for a warm, close Saturday night, for the SE at least?
  14. Even this coming (according to the FV3) Thursday looks like seeing temps well up to average, and maybe a touch above...Some beefy showers around too:
  15. And the mighty GFS predicts a short, sharp burst of welcome warmth, come tomorrow week. Note: The NW editor thingie keeps shuffling my images!
  16. Thundery trough runs northward, but the air immediately behind it still looks to be slightly warm:
  17. I knew that, if we waited long enough, a Gricelandavian HP would eventually rear its ugly head!
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