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Ed Stone

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Everything posted by Ed Stone

  1. Very unlikely to happen, of course, but the GEFS 12Zs provide the first real indication that winter will soon be upon us!
  2. Another one for fog-fans? It's sure sayin' something, when the only piece of excitement comes from a fog patch!
  3. The reason that I do not make LRFs is a simple one: Shannon entropy: For each detailed LRF (the really silly ones that include dates and such) there is one, and only one, combination of circumstances/events that'll create the desired 'hit'; the number of 'misses', on the other hand, is astronomical...? Multiply that (already infinitesimal quantity) by the number of individual forecasts made annually, and a reasonable number of years (20?)...and the chance of consistent success is...not very great? So, that's why I cannae be bothered. But, carry on you guys -- and ignore this curmudgeonly old fart! Good luck, All!!!
  4. Nice chart for the 23rd: lots of overnight fog (cloud permitting) with some bright, mild afternoons: Good rise in both SLP and T850s, going by the GEFS 00Zs: Too early to be certain, of course, but the model-runs and the background chatter both point toward a respite from all the wind and rain...
  5. Unfortunately, the GEFS 12Z ensembles do point portend the eventual arrival of some drier weather, though not necessarily toward any specific, lengthy settled spells...So, the most important question remaining is, of course: will it or won't it...snow in January?!
  6. Could be good for the October Fog Index? Better late than never!
  7. I agree, SO9...Her attempts at rationalising going to McDonalds was almost Pythonesque -- as was that bloke practising his application for a grant from The Ministry of Silly Walks! But, on the other hand, how can a 'professional' questioner not know the meaning of the word 'breadbasket'? All-in-all, another of the many reasons why I never watch ITV Daytime TV!
  8. I sure hope so, Zak. But the GEFS 06Z ensembles don't look too hopeful? Will it firm-up, or will it disappear altogether?
  9. What a thoroughly splendid GFS 06Z at T+288! Whether or not it (or anything like it) verifies is a different matter entirely, of course; but if it does, maxes of around 21C will certainly be possible!
  10. Here's an interesting article from the BBC: lifestyle-changes need be 'big' rather than small, meaningful rather than platitudinal; and big, non-platitudinal changes need 'big', non-platitudinal government, if they are to succeed... So why are Extinction Rebellion activists treated to precisely the same degree of hatred as the Suffragettes were, before them? Because they, too, threaten the status quo? 'Only big changes' will tackle climate change WWW.BBC.CO.UK The experts tell us that small, easy changes alone will not be enough to combat climate change.
  11. Another thing that must confound LRFs is that, as the AGW-based forcings strengthen, so the others must weaken...Those putting all their eggs in the Solar-minimum basket (in anticipation of a new Little Ice-Age) for instance, may be sorely disappointed? On the other hand, they might not?!
  12. Yes Karl, things are indeed looking up! Sort of:
  13. The GFS12Z Operational certainly ends on a spiffing note! But, as per usual, the Op is merely one run among a heap of scatter!
  14. Well that was a crap winter, wasn't it? Can we start a Spring thread, now? Now for next week's Euromillions numbers?
  15. Nae quite so much potential in this morning's GEFS 06Z ensembles, but some quite intense showers around northern and eastern coasts can't be ruled out...? But, little or no support for the Operational. Quelle surprise? Though, it wouldn't take too big a drop in T850s to cause one to amend one's guess!
  16. Then again...How about you mention them yourself, if you deem them important enough? Presenting data to go with your assertions is also acceptable, on here...?
  17. Well, well, well. The first of the season's BOOM charts has appeared! It won't happen, of course, but it's more interesting than reality: GEFS 00Z ensembles: Calm down, everyone -- it's another example of the GFS Operational's tail-end flapping!
  18. You'll need to become accustomed to that sort of thing, Zak, and it's not confined to Autumn...Some folks were writing-off summer -- in February!
  19. I'm ready for either the last burst of heat or the first blast of cold...neither of which, unfortunately, looks likely; today's GEFS 12Z ensembles are not very exciting?
  20. Aye QS, and I think some deniers seem overly fond of making that particular 'error': in fact, they're so fond of it, the very same individuals make it over and over again...Could it be, that what we are being led to believe is a genuine mistake is, in reality, just another obfuscatory sleight-of-hand?!
  21. Another ensemble set that doesn't really inspire...? Maybe it's time to read page 2 of Pride and Prejudice...? Naah -- it's nae that bad!
  22. You know what that means, don't you: we're in for another descending, back-loaded #winterofdiscontent?!
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