PB22

The 12z NAE has pepped up the snow shower potential over the Pennines for tomorrow, so one or two areas may just see a little more than a flurry: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/22/basis12/ukuk/prty/13022312_2212.gif

The cold uppers have gone by T+144 on the 12z ECM, but I'd wager that north-east wind will be pretty sharp still in the south:

Why don't you say what it's showing then?

Interesting few days ahead, a lot colder and a lot cloudier with some snow flurries around. East Anglia/Kent have to be at greatest risk of seeing some "proper" snow showers over the weekend, when flurries may extend a little further north and west for a time. Precipitation amounts virtually impossible to call at this stage...I can remember an occasion when promising synoptics delivered nothing even though it looked odds on for a dumping in the southeast, yet other times seemingly mediocre synoptics delivered more. It really will be a case of nowcasting. Longer term, high pressure holding on for several days (take GFS FI with big pinch of salt) with temperatures slowly recovering. A lot of it will come down to sunshine amounts, and I fear these will be limited, especially in the east.

That all depends on if its the 00z, 06z, 12z or 18z! For what its worth, the 18z ensemble mean at T+108 has everything slightly further east:

T+96 FAX: T+120 FAX: Cold and dry for many, breezy in the south.

Not too much difference at T+108. everything just ever so slightly further south still: Lets see if the Scottish/North Sea High links up with the Azores High again in the coming frames...

Yes, but apparently it's to be ignored as its not showing what we want! T+90: Not too much change, just slightly further south.

Early stages of the 18Z GFS nudge the overall pattern slightly south again: Swings and roundabouts.

T+168: Another improvement for the cold/snow prospects.

ECM T+144: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html Significant improvement for cold/snow.

T+120: http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?17-0 The high a slight touch further north and slightly further east.

12z ECM T+72: http://www.meteociel...CM1-72.GIF?17-0 Minimal changes. T+96: Again, limited changes evident.

I do think the GFS is bringing the Atlantic in too quickly, although it has been very consistent on this for several runs now. But with a mean chart like this at T+240 then it's still a long, long way off:

The GFS operational was one of the, if not the coldest, run for London for a while later this week, also a cold outlier in FI: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Everything is slightly further north and east by T+102: We need to watch around T+120 and see if the Azores High links up to the high to our north again...if so it could be the major spoiler again. Early signs are that it won't. UKMO T+72 shows little change from its earlier ideas:

12z GFS has things ever so slightly further north at T+48, conversely 12z UKMO have things slightly further south so much of a muchness really. GFS T+48: UKMO T+48:

But why? Why shouldn't those who prefer mild weather post on here? The vast majority of the population outside of these forums prefer mild weather in winter!

Having been away from the forum for a couple of years it appears that the world of weather discussion on the internet has taken on a new meaning. I'm not entirely sure why this is, but I would guess the events of December 2010 have set a whole new standard and therefore that could explain so many people's attitudes nowadays. At the end of the day some people need to remember it is "only" the weather, and there is nothing anyone can do about whatever it decides to do! There are so many more things in life that are more important (and stressful!). I do wonder what the future holds for threads like the model discussion, it's a vastly different forum now and sadly, not a better one. Or maybe the fact that I have got married and have a baby on the way means I have a different outlook on life now?! Either way, life is too short.

A prolonged cold and dry spell is on the cards for many it would appear now. Main snow risk for the far southeast but the main core of the cold now looks set to hit mainland Europe along with most of the snow potential. Winter 2012/13 looks set to end with an anti-climax for many, but a few may get lucky. Once again we have failed to get heights over Greenland which sums up the story of the winter well.

Good old GFS, takes ages to latch on but then when it does it goes beserk! T+174: Significant snowfalls in places if that chart verified.

Spot on, I fail to see why so many put themselves through the stress. It's always been the case, get the cold air in then the rest will take care of itself. For what its worth, I think tonight's output is absolutely superb for those wanting cold weather. As for the snow lovers, well it also looks extremely promising because no cold air = no snow, so getting the cold is the first priority. Look at the cold spell just gone, how many snow events popped up at short notice? I rest my case. There's far too much emphasis on upper temperatures. The 18Z GFS is now coming out, and up to T+90 there's very little change in the overall pattern:

Blimey, some of you really are spoilt nowadays. The ECM is a bitter run: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021512/ECM1-168.GIF Remember uppers aren't as important in an easterly.

I don't see the Atlantic winning the battle for a long time yet Mushy. Even the GFS has it blocked and cold on the ensemble mean at T+240 tonight: I think those of us looking for an early spring are going to be left disappointed. The outlook is cold for the foreseeable future.

12z UKMO T+144: Paving the way for an Arctic blast further down the line?