PB22

Hi Dave, which ensembles are you referring to? On the WZ London one there's 3 runs that go below -5C - but they are jolly chilly at around -10C for the 21st: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Sadly, the operational run isn't one of the runs that goes below -5C. ECM T+144: Some hints of heights building towards Greenland there...

ECM 12Z now coming out, and we do have a continental feed at T+96, but by T+120 its slightly different to the GFS and UKMO output: T+96: T+120:

In any case, it looks like the Atlantic is winning over the weekend to me! http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack0.html http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1.html Still some question marks over next week, but no real surprise to see the GFS was a huge cold outlier in early FI. Overall the ensembles haven't changed too much from today's earlier runs. Will be interesting to see what the ECM comes up with shortly.

I'd concur, merely delaying the inevitable I'd suggest.

I suspect that after a quiet day, the coldies will be back in force tonight after the GFS and UKMO 12z runs! UKMO T+120: Shows what a knife edge situation next week is, and it will be interesting to see the ensembles later.

Hi Brian, hope you are well. Totally agree with your thoughts there. There was always a chance (and still is, albeit very small now) that the huge block to the east could bring some notable cold back into the UK, but with that polar vortex over Greenland I cannot see it happening. Still, no-one can grumble really after what has been an exceptional winter so far, and all good things have to come to an end sadly.

I touched on this earlier, but I strongly suspect the main concerns next week will be more associated with flooding than anything else. With a thaw of lying snow, and the wet months at the end of last year, the ground is saturated and cannot take much more rain. Therefore to see the projected rainfall spikes on the ensembles is rather worrying to say the least: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png We're fast heading from wondering if next week will be wet, windy and dominated by the Atlantic to just how wet, windy and Atlantic dominated it will be.

The GFS 00z ensembles sum it up for me to be honest: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT2_Aberdeen_ens.png No sign of anything notably cold, and look at all those precipitation spikes, starting from tomorrow.

No sign of any huge shift in the 18Z ensembles. Suffolk 850hPa temperature ensemble: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=358&ext=1&y=92&run=18&runpara=0 London 850hPa temperature ensemble: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0 No real signs of much cold at the surface either: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=306&y=141&ext=1&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0 The operational was the coldest run at 2m temperatures for much of the high resolution run.

The 12z ECM ensembles for London have just come out: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Plenty of scatter beyond the 20th, but the operational wasn't too far from the mean.

You said the Atlantic doesn't return until next week, which is not true. It returns tomorrow which is perfectly valid to the model output discussion, otherwise some people may think there's no wind and rain to come for some time yet. You can't assume everyone knows what we are talking about.

Just so people aren't totally mislead, the Atlantic actually returns tomorrow with wind and rain sweeping across all parts in the next 24 -48 hours: http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack0.html http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack0a.html http://www.wzkarten....ics/brack1.html http://www.wzkarten....cs/brack1a.html

Hard to tell at this range, but it doesn't look very warm at the surface: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn14417.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn15017.html Looks relatively brief though as the Atlantic returns towards the end of the high resolution part of the run: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

An absolute classic battleground situation at T+150 on the 18Z GFS: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1502.html

In my eyes, the trend from 12Z output so far has drifted even further away from any potential easterly for next week, and the Atlantic looks set to have an increasing influence over our weather. The available model output so far is consistent in wanting raise pressure over Iberia between T+120 and T+144 and this trend has been consistent over the last couple of days. Given the ECM ensembles for London this morning, one would expect ECM to trend in the same direction later on. Having said all that, the deep cold air is never too far to our east (indeed, the east may remain rather chilly next week), and it wouldn't take too much of a shift for the proper cold air to come further west.

And the full ensembles for Suffolk: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=358&ext=1&y=91&run=6&runpara=0 London: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0 Nothing particularly inspiring there to be honest.

Short term GFS ensembles for Suffolk: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=358&ext=1&y=94&run=6&runpara=0 Operational GFS was one of the colder options around the 20th, otherwise nothing particularly notable on there.

Sorry you think that Ian, but I am merely posting what the charts are showing. I can't go through cherry picking every single chart to suit cold or mild outcome. I am simply trying to post up charts that best summarise the overall theme. Having said that, this forum could do with some mild bias on it sometimes! Here's the ECM 00Z London ensembles: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html The operational was one of the coldest runs by days 8-10, and there's no real sign of anything particularly cold in them although it does remain on the chilly side.

Control run at T+168 isn't too far away from an easterly: http://91.121.94.83/...s-0-1-168.png?6 Ensemble mean is though: http://91.121.94.83/...-21-1-168.png?6

The reason I am posting charts from the 06Z today is because I am not at work Dave. The ensembles are now coming out... The control run at T+114: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-114.png?6 Meanwhile, the ensemble mean shows more of a continental influence at T+114: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-114.png?6

I don't think anyone is saying the chance of an Easterly is gone Dave, but there can be no denying the trend is heading away from this scenario at the moment. As I said a few posts back, it may change in future runs but at the same time everyone needs to accept that a milder outcome is very much possible, and based on the models this morning, more likely and that is part of keeping an open mind.

Indeed, the details will change, hence my summary of the general trends from the model output this morning. It's amusing though that the charts are taken as gospel if they were cold and snowy, but that they will change if they show a milder picture!

Unsurprisingly, FI is fairly mild with high pressure to our south: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2761.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2762.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn27617.html

A poor end to the high resolution part of the run for cold lovers: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1801.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1802.html Make no qualms about it, the trend away from any potential easterly continues. Will it reverse later on though? I'd prefer to think of it as a realistic mood!

Here comes the Iberian High to join up with the high to the northeast, with those mild southwesterlies heading our way: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1621.html http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn1622.html