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Glacier Point

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Glacier Point last won the day on January 10

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About Glacier Point

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    horses, horses, horses, italy, food, gardening and the landscape, oh yes, and the weather
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    Forecaster Centaurea Weather

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  1. It's all automated stuff I know, but gives an insight into their fine mesh raw model outputs
  2. Hello, Met Office app now showing 80% chance heavy snow 21.00 here. Northward correction there '*if* this is to be believed...
  3. Still look to have potential. I have the SSW maxing in impacts end of month.
  4. What ! Man the barricades. Send scouts to somewhere near Halesowen. Oh, and watch out for these sneaky Wolveramptonites trying to pass themselves as Black Country. 06z runs not great viewing with PPN struggling to get above Bristol. All eyes on the radar for an upset if there is to be one. Key area looks like that push in the band towards Pembrokeshire.
  5. EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point
  6. EC 06z (yes that’ s not It a typo) taking the low through Brest south-east track). PPN to the north, but not much
  7. Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !
  8. Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th. Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.
  9. Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).
  10. Extended ensemble means starting to reduce the Western US ridge in favour of Alaskan / Arctic ridges. Will be interesting to watch this trend as it opens the door for more westerly flow through the southern arm of the jet and undercutting . The Canadian lobe of the vortex should have no restraint and will bleed eastwards. The high expectation for February is for low pressure in the North Atlantic currently where we have a programmed anomalous ridge. That looks a reasonable bet given the cold air in situ currently Hudson Bay. The blanks to be filled in ... _____ pressure over Greenland .. ______ pressure over Scandinavia. Clue: one will be the inverse of the other.
  11. Once again, Euro trough omnipresent. Once we get cold, the permutations are all loaded towards the cold variants.
  12. Touchdown. GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.
  13. Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating. Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges.
  14. GEFS undergoing major correction towards EPS in the day 8 / 9 range in the NE Atlantic, and that substantively opening the door for Greenland height rises days 12+
  15. Wowsers, GEFS and EPS couldn't be more different in the North Atlantic through day 10. Some crunching of gears coming up for one or both of them soon. Tempting to identify downwelling -U wind anomaly signal as the culprit here.
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