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Glacier Point

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Glacier Point last won the day on November 6

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About Glacier Point

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    Cumulonimbus

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    Male
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    Worcestershire
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    horses, horses, horses, italy, food, gardening and the landscape, oh yes, and the weather
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    Forecaster Centaurea Weather

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  1. Aside of the significant and near record kicking the stratospheric vortex will be receiving for this part of the early cold season (c/o wave 2), interesting to note that the tropics are choreographic themselves nicely in the -NAO context. The week 2 forecast depicts a strong suppression signal in the Indian Ocean and, consistent with El Nino events (of similar magnitude), a convective signal across much of the central Pacific basin. That's consistent with top 10 -NAO Decembers: Even more so when +10 Decembers are subtracted: Decembers with similar other drivers for context.. We are at the point where, if models are near correct, feedback loops begin to be established - cooling of the sub-tropical Atlantic and warming at higher latitudes, development of strong Siberian ridge and Aleutian low, stratospheric feedback into January and February.
  2. In the longer term, the interest will be what sort of feedback we can reasonably assume from a large injection of cold air across western Eurasia. Expectation would be for an anomalous Siberian High to develop, possibly in tandem with a Scandinavian ridge. 06z and 00z GEFS and 00z EPS notably more pronounced than recent GFS ops with the warmth and degree of displacement at 10 hPa over the Pole.
  3. Stratospheric disturbances were expected. Trop pattern looks to be happening a lot earlier than anticipated.
  4. Convectively coupled tropical wave passage through the Indian Ocean ... check. Resultant spike in the Asian Jet and introduction of westerlies on the back equatorward momentum transport...GWO spikes phase 4 ... check. Hemispheric pattern becomes highly amplified as a result... check Stratosphere warming on the back of upward wave activity.. check. All the ingredients here being set out for what we are seeing in GEFS extended.
  5. Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere. Think lorries about to jacknife.
  6. Key thing about 1986 for me is that the embryonic vortex took a substantive early season hit via 2 separate wave 2 events both tied into tropospheric patterns. This in effect destabilised the vortex allowing for its eventual demise via displacement event. This gave the tropospheric pattern breathing space during December to manifest what we would associated with a moderate end Nino event with regard to December - January evolution of a -NAO. Note two separate Wave 2 events during the autumn and early winter, the second resulted in a substantive deceleration of the upper level winds registered in both MERRA and NCEP data sets. 10 hPa zonal wind declined from that point onwards, culminating in the warming event later in January. So, as is nearly always the case, a combination of factors at play and no one smoking gun, but the choreography of the upper and lower parts of the atmosphere can be followed through the autumn and subsequent winter months.
  7. Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December. A strong convectively coupled tropical wave is being forecast to develop in the Indian Ocean in the next week and migrate eastwards during week 2 (MJO phase 2-3-4-5 transition). We are likely to see jet extension and subsequent retraction of the Asian and Pacific Jets leading to a increase in tendency in relative angular momentum and the GWO spiking phases 4 and 5. Mountain torque territiory for the Himalayas. At the same time, long wave pattern over eastern Europe maintains a favourable Wave 2 projection. This is likely to be enhanced over time as the amplification resulting from retraction of the Pacific Jet works its way downstream. Both tropical wave and resultant wave 2 look very similar to 1986 evolution. The AO looks to be tanking +ve in the week 2 timeframe, ideal for wave activity flux (again similarities with Nov 1986 there). So bottom line is ingredients for stratospheric vortex being significantly weakened during latter part of December.
  8. Depends on your forecast - in line with hirlam, gfs and arpege. I think most here would agree met office not coming out of this well.
  9. One last hurrah? Looks like this locale (east of Pershore) is about to get hit with the heaviest burst since the showers
  10. Radar seems to have more of an east to west component, so ppm over London might be a player for some surprise additions tonight?
  11. You’re more than welcome.
  12. Thanks - not so much the roads but accumulations in the fields around Kirby Bedon
  13. Quick request if I may: I'm due to survey a site south of Norwich on Monday. can anyone give me an idea of lying snow depths in the local area ? Thanks
  14. This band now beginning to look organised, and interesting most reporting a sudden drop in temps along the northern edge. Forecasts earlier had this front stalling. Could get interesting..
  15. You should be OK with a 4x4, and the intensity will be such that gritters / ploughs will be able to cope on major roads.
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