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Glacier Point

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Glacier Point last won the day on December 12

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    horses, horses, horses, italy, food, gardening and the landscape, oh yes, and the weather
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    Forecaster Centaurea Weather

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  1. GEFS mslp anomalies for days 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 over Siberia: Add that to already observed: Strong +ve anomaly over Siberia. Comparable with December 2005, but interestingly the Aleutian Low not so classical this time round. January 2006 featured a major mid winter warming.. The Aleutian Low conduit working to effect on wave 1 there. This time round, maybe not so much Wave 1 likely to impact the vortex into January, but perhaps more Wave 2 a possible driver for a strat warming event (QBO was stronger in 2005/6).
  2. One thing GEFS and EPS are agreed on: the sub-tropical ridge in the Atlantic is pulled well to the SW over Bermuda during the longer term. That either leaves Europe with a Scandinavian or Euro ridge as a final destination for this phase.
  3. Thinking aloud somewhat here.. The Alaskan ridge development has sound backing. What looks most likely is that this will shift poleward in the Christmas period. Towards the end of the year, GFS again develops a ridge over Scandinavia (was there on the 00z GEFS). I think fair chance of this occurring although timing is open to question. The two features occurring at the same time - natural evolution would be for some sort of Arctic ridge to develop. That way lies cold Nirvana. Either way, GFS continuing to bang the drum for a colder take on the New Year.
  4. Model implausability. EPS through latter part of the run has a trough extending from Baja to the Caspian Sea. Really ?
  5. Mild spell looks in a bit of bother on the 12z GFS. That date around the 22nd again. Much more amplification across the Pacific and Atlantic sides.
  6. 06Z GEFS and op has just added to the model fog cerca 22nd onwards. As per previous thoughts, we're approaching a transitional phase, timed around the switch from December to January. The low frequency tropical forcing signal has, and will continue to be centred around 140E - 160E in the Western Pacific. That's likely to maintain angular momentum in an elevated state relative to La Nina, so persistent signal for the GWO in phase 8 during the Christmas and into New Year period. The composites for this phase over the two separate months highlight the issues ahead of the modelling: That's solid support for the building Alaskan ridge in the medium term modelling and, persistence of ridge to our west. Therein the changing seasonal wavelengths bring about the change. Trough signal back over Europe and height rises to our NE and N. The Alaskan ridge poses some questions: where does it go given the composites for January don't see it sticking around too long; does it migrate poleward and become absorbed into the Arctic circulation (as looks likely)? How then does the North American trough behave ? Composite for January looks good for the ridge developing in the extended modelling off the SE USA, so some westward movement of the trough over Canada looks reasonable. Longer term, a reboot of tropical convection across the Western Pacific and increasing angular momentum look to favour a phase 4 transition of the GWO into January: Lots to be interested in and a non-numerical approach offering plenty of clues ahead.
  7. or whether the southern arm of the jet pinches the Alaskan ridge off allowing for a faster retrogression.
  8. Yes Ed. I do believe we have something relatively concrete (Alaskan ridge) to work from here.
  9. 12z GFS op developing a very convoluted upstream flow from day 7 onwards, all courtesy of a temporary extension and retraction of the Asian Jet. Alaskan ridge effectively rips the tropospheric vortex in two. As pure conjecture, 12z would be a heart beat away from developing and easterly flow across Europe.
  10. About those long range model forecasts.. Both CFS and GPC heading for major bust on December (Nov and Dec for GPC / GLOSEA5) in the North Atlantic. Ridges and troughs in completely the wrong places, particularly CFS for December. Pertinent as both models have similar forecasts for January-February periods. Maybe not a tropical lead signal ?
  11. 00z and 06z GEFs continue to advertise the speculated trend days 12-15. EPS not as progressive, but hinting the same way. Westward positioning of the North pacific ridge becoming more polar in location. Polar vortex being pulled west with it, away from Greenland. Building height anomaly to the NE. To reiterate, this is not likely to be rapid transition, and a milder phase is not without question, but the broad trend is exactly what I would be looking for with regard to January's evolution.
  12. Nice. Near white out conditions here and looking to those large radar returns over Cheshire with some anticipation.
  13. Nope. Re-read. A milder phase is perfectly feasible.
  14. very similar aerial coverage on EC12 to EC00 initially, but more southern coverage late Sunday into Monday. Take a blend of EC and UKMO