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Bring Back1962-63

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Bring Back1962-63 last won the day on December 24 2017

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About Bring Back1962-63

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    Bring Back 1962-63

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    Exmouth 65m (212ft) asl
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    Everything weather related; glaciation; coin collecting; cricket; bridge
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    Extremes - especially cold and snow

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  1. LOOKING GREAT FOR EXTENDED COLD SPELL IN EUROPE AND EAST CONUS FROM XMAS ONWARDS I posted this on a US forum teleconnections thread and @Raythan asked me to copy it on here. It does relate to both US and UK/Euro patterns. I shall not edit it and it was rather rushed. At last, the AAM, torque and GWO charts have all just updated to Dec 9th and they are almost entirely in line with Tams' @Tamara and Tom's @Isotherm predictions and very good news for those hunting the main cold spell starting around or just after Christmas in the eastern US and a few days later in western Europe and the UK. Total GLAAM having fallen back is on the rise again. Following the huge fall in the relative GLAAM tendency anomaly it's bouncing back equally strongly exactly as they predicted. FT rose and has gone +ve albeit briefly. The rising FT (from its low point) has led Global MT up (with the usual time lag) and that's another huge spring back and leading NAMT and EAMT upwards. The GWO did not go -ve while it has moved from phase 8 and has pushed through the COD and is re-emerging in phase 5, exactly as Tams predicted. It's set to rise at increased amplitude through phases 5 and 6. I've run out of time (incredibly busy this week) to say any more but with the MJO also playing ball (entering a higher amp run through phases 5/6/7) and the signs of a significant strat warming (if not a major SSW) make me feel really bullish about a significant cold spell - probably in Europe/UK and the eastern CONUS. I'll leave it up to the rest of you to scrutinise the finer detail. I wonder how quickly the models will "fully" factor this in? David
  2. Although this cold spell is on the way out (probably until mid-December) there has been some local interest in terms of some of us seeing some early snowfall (albeit very briefly). Just a few flakes down here but for the third time this "winter" (half of the year) we've seen close to the lowest minimum temps in England. Central and south Devon managed the lowest values in that October cold snap. Just now Exeter and Exmouth dropped below 0c. Some of you just north of Exeter may have managed below -1.5c. These are not exceptional values (October was) but it is quite rare for coastal regions of the south west to see the lowest countrywide temps. Even rarer for so early in the winter with SSTs still around 14c. As in October, we've had clearer skies and much lighter winds than further north east and crucially these have been "off shore" with a gentle drift from the east north east. David
  3. It certainly is. A very heavy shower just passed through and lasted about 25 minutes (perhaps 20 mm) - moving north-north west so will be over Exeter right now. Some hail and lightning flashes every 20-30 seconds (some fork) and quite load claps of thunder too. Squally gusts but it's stopped now and is calm again. More like a squall line. No more time now - so a selection of charts. David Animated charts below - if they're stuck, just click on them (the last 2 are forecast charts):
  4. Brief Update Some of us have seen a little of the white stuff overnight - even a few flakes down here (-1.5c in north-east Exmouth). The band of rain moving north centred over IOW/S Hants has snow on its leading edge. Winds have veered to the south-south-east and less cold air is just about to push in (more or less as forecast). You can see the sequence on the charts below. David Live radar Live radar Live temps 24 Hours to this morning: Temps Pressure Wind
  5. Temps to 2200 Dew points to 2200 Live radar Live radar Still highly marginal but the lowest temperatures will occur during the next few hours and a little more of that precipitation may turn more wintry before it largely dies out. David
  6. Quick Update and Forecast: As many of you will know we have a very narrow window and even then many will not even see sleet or wet snow. The next 12 to 15 hours will be worth monitoring. I'll add to the charts I posted a couple of hours ago. Recent NetWx radar shows some seeing a sleety mix. Evaporative cooling may be possible for anyone seeing a period of an hour of two of steady cold rain in light winds. Elevation will be critical. Live temps Live Winds Live Pressure Temps could well drop just about lower enough this evening and overnight. Winds are off-shore, light and from the east-north-east = okay. Pressure 24 hours to 1633 Tues Lowest temps 0700 Wed Temps 1300 Wed Winds are likely to veer to the south-east tomorrow morning and that will bring less cold air in and for those of us near the coast and further south-west we'll see the rise before anyone else. Snow accumulation Precipitation accumulation SSTs Ground temps The snow accumulation forecast chart (always unreliable) is close to the maximum extent expected. Main problem is that most of us will stay practically dry or just seeing tiny amounts of any type of precipitation. Most of any action in the next 12+ hours may well be further north. The rain moving in from the south is associated with the incoming less cold air. When winds switch to the south east and become onshore - we have those high SSTs to moderate the flow further. Ground temps will just about be low enough around dawn for slushy deposits in any heavier wintry outbreaks. Now things can pop up out of anywhere and I like the look of Karl's @karlos1983 chart showing that mini cyclogenesis spinning out from the north-west France coast. Definitely one to monitor during the next 3 to 6 hours. So, we cannot rule out a little whiteness almost anywhere but so much needs to fall into place just for that. David
  7. This will be marginal at best but colder air is drifting into the south-east and it's snowing in Paris and much of northern France. If it starts spreading our way, I'll be back later. Here are some live charts and gif images. 24 hour temps to 1300 Tues Live Radar Live radar Live Sat Live Sat 24 hour Dew Points to 1300 David
  8. Bring Back1962-63

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    ARCTIC UPDATE - MIXED NEWS ON ICE EXTENT, 2M SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SSTS I thought that some of you might be interested in my Arctic update which I just posted on the "Arctic Ice Data and Stats" thread. Some of this is relevant to the upcoming cold spell, "the hunt for cold" and what the models may or may not factor in. There has been a strong recovery in Arctic ice extent during the last 4 weeks, surface temperature anomalies are mostly not as high as they have been for much of the last 3 months and even the widespread very high SST anomalies have eased slightly. Snow cover anomalies have increased rapidly in the last couple of weeks on the Siberian/Russian side although they are higher in the Canadian Arctic. Loads of maps and charts to show all that. Here's the direct link. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?do=findComment&comment=3922381
  9. Bring Back1962-63

    Arctic Ice Data And Stats.

    ARCTIC UPDATE - MIXED NEWS ON ICE EXTENT, 2M SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SSTS Please note that I am cross-posting this from the US forum where I posted it several hours ago. I'll leave it unedited but over 99% equally applies here in the UK. Well first of all hat's off to Dave @Midllands Ice Age (UK). Rather than a pause, the re-freeze has actually continued at an impressive rate. Nevertheless, there are still various concerns. I'll comment below each chart. Please refer to the Arctic map in my introductory post to this thread which shows all the Arctic regions and seas. The overall Arctic sea ice extent has recovered strongly but is still below average in many parts, especially in the Bering Sea (almost no ice), the Chukchi Sea, the Barents Sea and part of the Kara Sea. The exceptions are in the Canadian Arctic (fully frozen) and Baffin Bay (west of Greenland) as well as in Hudson Bay and the Gulf of St Lawrence which are starting to freeze over rather earlier than in many recent years (although 2017 was an early re-freeze for Hudson Bay too). Much of the main ice sheet is approaching 90% to 100% ice concentration. This map shows us the different ages of the ice. The brown area is the ice that has survived for at least 1 year. Green shows the thickest "new" ice, pink is medium thickness and dark blue is the thinnest, often referred to as "nilas". Here's a link to the types of new ice, how it forms and the terms used: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/formation.html This chart is from that part of the NSIDC site. This map shows how quickly ice extent recovered during October and this continued into November. It's normal for there to be pauses or setbacks in the rate of recovery during the main re-freeze season. So far, 2018 has seen the fastest continuous recovery since early October compared to any of the previous 7 years. Only 2012, which saw the record minimum extent, comes close to matching 2018. Unfortunately, all these recent years are below or well below the 1979 to 2006 mean. The good news is that much of the Arctic has cooled down significantly in the last 2 weeks. The Canadian Arctic and Greenland have been persistently colder than most of the rest of the Arctic region. Many parts of Siberia and northern Russia have cooled off more than forecast (just 2 weeks ago) which is probably one of the main reasons why the re-freeze has continued apace. The 2m surface temp anomalies for this month to date are actually not as bad as those at the time I last posted this chart (in my post on October 20th on page 2 of this thread). Back then the Arctic Ocean was running at +4.012c; the whole of the Arctic region (66N-90N) was at +3.532c; the sub Arctic and Arctic (60N-90N) was at +2.709c and only Greenland was colder at -1.19c. This chart shows the predicted anomalies for T+!68 or a week from now. The cooling trend is expected to continue over almost all the Arctic and sub Arctic region and over the ocean with temps returning to closer to normal with only Greenland becoming much warmer. Given that temps there will be in the -20c to -40c range, a + 4.45c anomaly is not too much of a concern. This was average regional anomalies but we can see the actual distribution. North east Canada is going to become even colder and a slightly colder than average area extends across (and to the south of) the pole and into Russia. Even the very high anomalies in the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea are expected to ease down to some extent. This chart (from the Zach Labe site) puts the current warmth into context. There was a period in mid summer when 2018 was running just below the 1958-2002 mean but it has been running at close to record warmth since then. The thin lines cover the range from 1958 to 2016. The predicted further cool off should help to to take 2018 back into the range seen in most of the recent years but still slightly above the long term average. This map shows the Arctic region land mass snow cover anomalies (excluding Greenland which is not shown but actually has near to its highest levels of year to date new snow cover since 1972). The better news here is that most of the regions close to the Arctic Ocean now have close to (grey) or above average (greens) snow cover. Continuous deep snow cover plus generally lower land mass surface temps should assist with the re-freeze but there is one more important ingredient.... ...SSTs. The areas of open water below 0c have expanded steadily (as they should do approaching winter). Sea water usually starts to freeze at SSTs below -1.5c depending upon salinity and circulation patterns/wind strength. The anomalies are actually improving too! There are still those exceptionally high small areas with anomalies of +6c to +8c and those in the Bering Sea are still very high (but falling). The overall area of +2c has declined and much of the far North Atlantic is actually below average. Is this a sign that "if" we see a continuing weaker jet stream and disorganised tropospheric PV plus favourable circulation patterns that SSTs might fall back to less high anomalies? In a future post, I'll compare these anomalies to those since 2014 (just prior to the super El Nino that pumped in those warm waters) and examine the trend much more closely. Overall, the news is not nearly as bad as I was expecting - perhaps I should say slightly less worrying than it might have been. If the re-freeze can continue at a decent rate, it is possible that 2018/19 could turn out to see greater ice extent than in most of the last decade. Things can easily change for the worse again with pauses and setbacks still possible but not for the next week or two at least. David
  10. Bring Back1962-63

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    THE GLOBAL SYNOPTIC DYNAMIC MODEL (GSDM) That was a superb post Tams @Tamara. Spot on as usual and providing some very sensible balance to some of the hype expressed by a few posters on this thread (far too early to say whether the upcoming cold spell will last for weeks on end). You came in for some very unfair criticism and Ed Berry and the GSDM have been thoroughly quoted out of context. Rather than get into this unfortunate ongoing debate on this forum over the relative merits of teleconnection science, perhaps we can let readers decide for themselves. I have been in touch with Ed Berry during this year and had some fascinating exchanges with him. In May, he sent me a link to his YouTube video on his outstanding one hour seminar presentation on the GSDM. Feb - this will answer your question in full I posted exclusively about this on the Teleconnections thread on two forums back on May 24th. I copy my opening paragraphs below (marginally edited to be current): What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? - A Review of This Presentation This specialist "Teleconnections" thread was set up to examine and learn more about the main drivers and influences on the broader global weather patterns and how these drivers interact with each other and which are the more dominant ones. Some of the posts have already focused on the great importance of understanding the major role played by AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) and the torques. Several of us have discussed the GSDM (Global Synoptic Dynamic Model) which was jointly developed by leading meteorological scientists Edward K Berry and Dr Klaus Weickmann while they were working at NOAA in the late 1990s and earlier years of this century. They also devised the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) as a way of plotting and measuring the amounts of relative global AAM, FT (frictional torque) and MT (mountain torque) at different phases of the cycle. They became leaders in this specialist research which has been used to assist in understanding impacts on global weather patterns and upcoming changes up to a few weeks ahead.  Unfortunately, they left NOAA several years ago (in 2015) and it seemed that their vitally important work had ceased with a great loss to advances in meteorological science. We have been trying to track them down and recently found an email address for Ed Berry. I sent Ed an email and I was delighted when he replied almost immediately. He explained that Klaus Weickmann retired several years ago. Edward K. Berry (Senior Weather-Climate Scientist) continues his excellent work on the GSDM and retains his lifelong passion to develop the model and its meteorological applications further. We have exchanged a few more emails with Ed and he is very supportive of the work that we are doing on this thread. I hope that we can persuade Ed to post on here in due course. (Ed Berry should not be confused with another Ed Berry who is Dr Edwin Berry and a climatologist) I asked Ed if he could assist us with obtaining past AAM, FT and MT data (which had been withdrawn from the NOAA Maproom archives) as well as more comprehensive current data and I explained to him that we had been in touch with Victor Gensini (Assistant Professor, Department of Geographic and Atmospheric Sciences, Northern Illinois University) who has been working on and producing some of this missing data - several of our posts include examples of Victor's charts. Ed told me that he was in touch with Victor and they had discussed some of this work. Victor hosted an AMS seminar recently (American Meteorology Society - Student Chapter, College of DuPage, Chicago on 28th March, 2018) and Ed gave a one hour presentation on the GSDM (as shown in the title to this post). Ed emailed a link to his presentation last week (May) and I have already viewed it three times, learning a little more about the GSDM each time. He gave me full permission to review it on here. Firstly, here's the link to the Research Portal entry where I placed it. It will take you to a short summary with a direct link to the full presentation. Just click on this title: What is the GSDM and how does it help with subseasonal weather forecasts? A YouTube Presentation It is a brilliant seminar with clear charts and explanations, ending with a question and answer session. For anyone wishing to learn more about AAM, the torques, the GWO and how they interact with other major teleconnections like phases of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) then this is absolutely essential viewing. I also strongly recommend this for more advanced viewers as well. The presentation is right up-to-date and includes the 2018 SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event and links to key issues like climate change. Much of the presentation is slanted towards the North American climate and US weather patterns but it has a global significance and includes impacts on both hemispheres. I show a small selection of the charts from Ed's presentation below to whet your appetite: (see note below) My full post is on page 7 of the Teleconnections thread and contains a selections of the charts from the presentation. Here's the link to that page (just click on the chart below): We can all learn from this presentation and I sincerely hope that some of the misunderstanding of this vital part of the science will now be alleviated. I will only rarely post on this thread during the busy winter period. I will be on several of the specialist threads, including the Teleconnections thread, the Arctic Sea Ice and Stats thread (where I've recently posted on Greenland and Global Glacial Ice) and Antarctica thread (where I also produced a long post) as well as on the South West regional thread (when things get interesting locally). I shall also be very busy building up the Research Portal on the US forum (where I'm also a member) and I will also cross post on both forums where it is appropriate. David
  11. Bring Back1962-63

    The World's Glaciers

    GLOBAL GLACIAL ICE REPORT - INCLUDING GLACIERS, ICE CAPS AND ICE SHEETS I told Malcolm @Blessed Weather back in August that I intended to do a post on global glacial ice (on the US forum that I often use and would cross-post it on to the appropriate NetWx thread) and he posted a useful chart showing the cumulative glacial ice loss since 1980 (on both forums too). I quote his post from August 17th below which appears at the top of this page. I wrote my (very long) post with both UK and US audiences in mind. Well, following a number of distractions on the hurricane, teleconnections and other forum threads (in the US and in the UK) as well as my more recent posts and updates on the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland, I am finally getting around to it! We often hear news reports that the world's glaciers are retreating so quickly that most of them will disappear during the course of this century and many within the next 20 to 30 years. Some of this "may" be partly exaggerated by those at one extreme of the global warming and climate change debate and, at the other extreme, climate change deniers might argue that these are temporary or mostly naturally occurring changes. As I've said repeatedly on both forums, I want to endeavour to remove the hype and take a balanced and measured approach, so in this report I want to look at many of the facts about global glacial ice. I will draw data and information from quite a range of sources and this has been much harder than I would have thought. There is such an array of data and some very inconsistent analyses and quite a few misleading charts and statements. There are monitoring sites on many glaciers and ice sheets, satellite data is invaluable and some figures are best estimates based on photographic evidence. Some of these records are quite out of date but I have tried to pull together information based on measurements taken in the last few years but some data goes back to 2006 which I only use for comparison purposes. Therefore I shall include the date (alongside each fact or chart) where ever possible and when it's relevant. Whenever any of us find much more current data in place of the early data I will be more than happy to see this. In due course, a full update can be done by me or anyone who is interested in this fascinating topic. I feel that a good way to approach this now will be for me to run through a series of facts and figures which can be discussed in follow up posts by any of us. I include some basic descriptions too for those who are just beginning to learn about this. With so many statistics and facts, there are bound to be a few inaccuracies and typos and please point out any more serious blunders as it most certainly is not my intention to misleading anyone is this critically important field. Please note that in this post I am referring to all "glacial ice" which includes mountain and valley glaciers, tidewater glaciers, ice caps, ice shelves and ice sheets (especially Antarctica and Greenland). About 10 percent of the Earth is covered in "land ice" with glacial ice, including glaciers, ice caps, and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica (NSIDC 2018). This area is covered by about 15 million square kilometers of glacial ice. To be termed a glacier it must be a minimum size of 0.1 square kilometers (or 25 acres). 99% of glacial ice is contained within vast ice sheets (also known as "continental glaciers") in the polar regions. There are about 198,000 glaciers in the world, covering 726,000 square kilometers (June 2017). It is difficult to identify and measure very small glaciers (from snow fields) which are under 0.1 square kilometers, these are called "glacierets". If glacierets are included, the number of glaciers in the World would be around 400,000 but still only 1.4% of the World’s glacierised area. The region with the most ice is the Antarctic and Subantarctic with 14 million square kilometers. The Antarctica ice sheets contains 30 million cubic kilometers of ice or about 90% of the Earth's total ice mass! Antartica glaciers (excluding the main ice sheet) have an estimated 132,000 square kilometers of ice. Second is the North Canadian Arctic with 104,000 square kilometers of glacial ice (excluding the ice caps there). On the other hand, New Zealand has only 1,160 square kilometers of glacial ice. In total, 44% of the World’s glacierised area (not sea ice) is in the combined Arctic regions and 18% is in the Antarctic and Subantarctic (excluding ice sheets). Glaciers (excluding ice sheets etc) cover 0.5% of the Earth’s land surface. The Little Ice Age from about 1550 to 1850 with lower global temperatures than today saw most glaciers and ice sheets expand. The period from 1850 to 1940, saw a warming global climate with a widespread retreat. This was reversed temporarily between 1950 and 1980 as global temperatures cooled slightly. Since 1980, a significant global warming has led to glacier retreat becoming increasingly rapid and some glaciers have disappeared altogether. The glacier retreat into the Rockies, the Andes and the Himalayan ranges has the potential to affect water supplies in those areas. An ice sheet is a mass of glacier ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 square kilometers and is also known as "continental glacier". The Antarctic ice sheet is effectively a glacier and has existed for at least 40 million years. Smaller glaciers break away from the main ice sheet. Antarctic ice is up to 3 miles thick in some areas. The largest individual glacier in the world is the Lambert-Fisher Glacier in Antarctica at about 250 miles long and 60 miles wide. Ice Flow Map: This map produced in 2011 shows ice movement in 1996, 2000 & 2006. The colors indicate the speed of the ice flow: purple/red is fast; green is slower. This velocity map is derived from synthetic aperture radar and overlaid on a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mosaic image of Antarctica. Since 2006 Antarctica has seen increased snowfall and ice gains in some years - with increased ice flow in recent years, we need a later comparison.. Antarctic ice velocity in 2015 and the velocity change between 2008 and 2015. The mosaic of the Antarctic ice velocity (2015) from L8 panchromatic images from January 2015 to March 2016 is shown here overlaid on a MODIS mosaic of Antarctica (MOA)34,35. The magnitude of the ice velocity is coloured on a logarithmic scale and overlaid on gridded potential seawater temperature data (PTM) at a depth of 200 m from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). The velocity changes at grounding lines are calculated for 466 glaciers between 2015 and 2008 and are shown for 211 glaciers with high confidence levels (>2 σσ), which are coloured on a logarithmic scale. The names of selected glaciers and ice shelves are labelled. ‘A’ through ‘F’ delimits the six oceanic sectors. The details of ice velocity changes along grounding lines are presented in Table S1. The solid grey lines delineate major ice divides. This map was created using The Generic Mapping Tools version. Antarctica's ice velocity is at its highest and accelerating the fastest close to the coast where ice bergs and shelves break off. The Ross Ice Shelf and Ronne Ice Shelf and a few small ice shelves are moving much more quickly than the majority of the land mass ice. 2017 Map: Antarctica has 15 major ice shelf areas, and 10 of the largest appear in this map. Most of these ice shelves are glacier-fed, but ice formed from direct snowfall accumulation is a significant part of all permanent ice shelves. Glaciers usually take centuries to develop but can retreat and melt much more quickly. Ice melt is seasonal and varies considerably from year to year. Once glacial ice begins to break down, the interaction of melt water with the glacier's structure can cause increasingly fast melting and retreat. Glaciers have white surfaces that reflect the sun's rays. As glaciers melt darker surfaces are exposed which absorb heat raising temperatures even more. Greenland's ice sheet has an area of 1.7 million square kilometers, an average thickness of 2.3 kilometers and holds 7 percent of the world's freshwater. If Greenland's glaciers and ice sheet melted completely, global sea level would increase by up to 7 meters (23 feet). Contrary to popular belief Greenland's glacier retreat was much faster in the early 20th century than it is now (confirmed by my recent Greenland post) Glaciers are found in 47 countries. This figure shows the global distribution of glaciers. The diameter of the circle shows the area covered. The area covered by tidewater glaciers is shown in blue. The numbers refer to each RGI region (shown in the table below): This table dates back to 2012 and ice extent figures have changed since then but it does give us a good idea of global ice distribution for comparative purposes. Area-Altitude distributions for each of the RGI regions. The top figure is the distribution of regional glacierised area with altitude. The lower figure is the distribution of normalised area with normalised altitude. The dotted lines are idealised approximations; the triangle is for mountain glaciers, the curved line is for ice caps. Source: Pfeffer et al., 2014. Most of the World’s glaciers lie below 2000 m above sea level and most of the glacierised area is in the mid-elevation ranges (see charts above) Antarctica has many low-lying tidewater glaciers near the coast has a large amount of low-lying ice. In contrast the North Canadian Arctic has many ice caps on high-elevation plateaus. The distribution of glacier area with altitude is important, as it means that different areas will respond to climate change in very different ways. Glaciers store about 75 percent of the world's fresh water. If all land ice melted, sea level would rise approximately 70 meters (230 feet) worldwide. Current contributions of glaciers and ice sheets to global sea level rise. From the IPCC AR5 Working Group 1 (Ref. 13) 2014 During the maximum point of the last ice age, glaciers covered about 32 percent of the total land area. In the United States, glaciers cover over 75,000 square kilometers, with most of the glaciers located in Alaska. There are 616 officially named glaciers in Alaska and about 100,000 unnamed glaciers (estimated in November 2017 - far more than recorded previously) North America's longest glacier is the Bering Glacier in Alaska, measuring 190 kilometers (118 miles) long and the ice covers nearly 2,000 square miles. The Bering Glacier has retreated by 8 miles since 2004 but does have short (annualised) growth periods too - this image was taken in August 2004 NASA Earth Observatory's Image of the Day for Aug 3, 2004:Image description: Bering Glacier Not all glaciers are declining; in some areas global warming produces much higher snowfall and this can exceed the ice melt or loss - the proportions above from this 2009 chart still apply now. The Hubbard Glacier in Alaska has been steadily advancing for over 100 years and is accumulating mass near its origin faster than it's losing it in the ocean.(June 2015). The Kutiah Glacier in Pakistan holds the record for the fastest glacial surge. In 1953, it raced more than 7 miles in three months, averaging about 367 feet per day. Tidewater glaciers are valley glaciers that flow down to the ocean and often calve small icebergs. Taku Glacier winds through the coastal mountains of SE Alaska (photo below). After flowing for 55 kilometers (34 miles), the glacier terminates in Taku Bay near Juneau, Alaska Valley glaciers are really mountain glaciers that carve their way through mountain valleys and enlarge them. The "Great Aletsch Glacier" in Valais, Switzerland is a valley glacier and the longest glacier in the Alps at 23 kilometers. The Aletsch Glacier covers an area of 81.7 square kilometers, has a volume of 15.4 cubic kilometers and declined by 3 kilometers since 1880. Around 400 billions tons of glacier is lost ever year (NASA 2017). The US Glacier national Park in Montana has lost 124 glaciers in the last 100 years with just 26 remaining (US Independent, May 2017) Source: CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1168903 (2006) Global glacial mass balance in the last fifty years, reported to the WGMS and NSIDC. The increasing downward trend in the late 1980s is symptomatic of the increased rate and number of retreating glaciers. Over the past two billion years there have been at least five main ice ages. The last one spanned from 2.6 million years ago to the present day (see below) That statement is hotly disputed and most climatologists say that the last ice age ended around 10,000 years ago. It is believed the earth has seen much warmer periods between previous ices age than we have now and these lasted for up to 10,000 years. The post has ended up much longer than I expected but I wanted to get the facts out there, so that many of us can debate them on this thread, the climate change thread or elsewhere. It presented one of my toughest challenges ever with so much conflicting data and reports around with huge inconsistencies. Frankly, there's enough material out there for anyone to support an argument at either extreme of the climate change and global warming debate. I have tried as hard as possible to retain a thoroughly balanced approach as well as my sanity while researching all of this. I have saved nearly 50 new papers and presentations related to this topic and added them to my store. I'll be very busy adding them steadily to the Research Portal. Malcolm @Blessed Weather, Zac @Snowyhibbo and I developed my library idea over there with a lot of support from the US forum where we have full editing rights. Here's a link to the index page: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/996-index-to-papers-and-articles/ You'll find loads of papers and presentations on many topics including Arctic Ice Cover, Arctic Amplification, Antarctica, Climate Change and so many more. We're adding new material all the time and there is something for everyone with simple learner's guides through to much more technical stuff. From the index, click on any title and that will take you to the abstract or summary. Then you can decide if you want to read the full paper or view the presentation video and there's a direct link provided. David EDIT: Having quoted so many statistics it's possible (in fact likely) that I've made a few errors. I just spotted one which should have said 14 million square kilometers of ice rather than 14,000 - now that would be a pretty significant loss Please draw any errors to my attention - that would be greatly appreciated.
  12. Bring Back1962-63

    Antarctic Ice Discussion

    Hi BFTP, I really wanted to avoid getting into this rather heated or shall I say "passionate" exchange of views. I strongly believe in a well considered, evidence based and respectful debate but this does seem to have degenerated intos omething rather less savoury. I know that you have a good knowledge, especially on solar activity and impacts and that you have formed your own views on climate change over a period of time. I should say that just on that point, I take a very balanced approach towards climate change and global warming. Almost everyone agrees that it is happening but the debate is even more polarised than Brexit is and it's a worldwide issue. It's the degree of human influences vs natural variability that is causing the most disagreement. The politics in all this has gone off the scale. Well respected scientists are often misquoted, other scientists' are sometimes controlled by their employers who have vested interests at one end of the debate or the other - the paymaster rules! There are still plenty of "independents" out there and I wish all scientists could go back to some of their golden rules, which is to always keep an open mind, challenge existing theories and search for the real evidence. Then the media and other influential people get involved and put their slant on things. Fake news, a lot of hype, misleading or exaggerated statistics and false claims are made from both sides and the divide becomes even greater. Then the instant worldwide exposure through all the social (or unsocial!) media channels expands on these news stories and reports and any inaccuracies become highly magnified with many innocent members of the general public taking much of it as factual when very often it is not. The more the dramatic and sensational the news story or report is the more likely it is that the facts becoming distorted. I "passionately" believe in balance and that many of us on these weather forums with varying degrees of meteorological and climatological knowledge and experience should be highly responsible about all of this. We can pool our knowledge on threads like this (re Antarctica) or on other specialist thread by analysing reports, news stories and statistics with completely open minds - not allowing our personal views to interfere. That way we have half a chance of sifting out the facts from the fiction to far better understand exactly what is going on. What is the rate of change; what is the degree of human influence; what are the longer term cycles that effect natural variability; how different are current conditions to those historically (recent and long term past); how do all these interact; what are the short, medium and long term influences and impacts; what can be done to avoid the worst of them (eg: I've heard recently that technology may be developed to harness the methane as it escapes from thawing tundra and permafrost regions - just one of many sensible solutions which would also reduce atmospheric pollution or avoid a further increase - better to use it as fuel and break down this highly toxic gas into far less toxic ones). Now turning to current discussions @BornFromTheVoid is right that an awful lot of inaccurate claims are being made on here but i can see how a misunderstanding has developed over this report. I've been following NASA's work for some time. If one reads the full article in that report you will see that the first part does refer to NASA's main research into Antarctica volcanoes but they do NOT claim that this will lead to a massive melting of land ice. They explain how some of the fairly recently discovered subterranean lakes (during the last 5 years or so) are quite likely to have been formed by volcanism. Remember that some of the vast lakes have been discovered further east and more inland too and the biggest ones which contain liquid water are sometimes over 3 miles below the thickest parts of the ice sheet and may be over 40 million year old. NASA are referring to near the western Antarctica coastline where some "net" ice loss has occurred in recent years. They say that the ice sheet/shelves there are becoming more unstable and that volcanism "might" be a contributory factor (it's useful to read some of their earlier reports on this to put it into perspective). They suggest that all this needs to be explored further. Note that the report is on their news media site and it is the second part that they refer to where the claim is being "suggested" but they are referencing the report by scientists Helene Seroussi and Eric Ivins who have done research into this and also into Greenland's ice cap for at least 6 years and they've written many reports.on this subject. (always a good idea to check out the authors). NASA reference their fascinating paper: "Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal conditions," which you'll find was actually published over a year ago (on 1st August 2017) and built on their earlier research - so nothing new about this latest news - just that social media seem to have been quite late into jumping on the band wagon and bringing it into the heart of the climate change debate. In any event, there is actually a reasonable degree of balance in the paper. Volcanism itself is "mostly" naturally occurring but how it interacts with the more unstable western Antarctic ice sheet certainly does need to be studied and that's exactly what much of the research going on down there is aimed at. Frankly, it is far too early to jump to any conclusions and definitely not to infer that 2+2=5 (or more). The paper was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. The authors/scientists work for several institutions and are indeed currently contracted to JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) which is sponsored by NASA. . It should be noted that the "very slight" net melting in western Antarctica does "seem" to be more or less compensated by the increased snowfall, particularly in the drier interior and much of the east. This additional snowfall, is speeding up the ice cycle. The main ice sheet and small glaciers are indeed moving more quickly. Ice shelves breaking off into the sea do make for sensational news headlines but this is all part of the process. What matters is the "net" ice amount on the whole continent. There are some conflicting reports on this and we must get at the truth. With further global temp rises (if/as they happen) there is likely to be far greater snowfall. The Antarctica ice equilibrium may well be maintained for many years if not centuries but "if" other global ice retreat and loss does continue and worldwide temps continue to rise, all that increased snowfall in Antarctica might do (and perhaps also Greenland to a lesser extent - see my long post on the good news story there for 2018 on the Arctic Ice and Stats thread) is slow down the overall process to some extent. The other thing to bear in mind is that the behaviour of a mountain glacier or snowfield and how it reacts to volcanism is on a very minor scale compared to a vast ice sheet. Far more research is needed and we can track some of this on this thread but let's not argue about it all, instead let's examine the facts. David .
  13. Bring Back1962-63

    Antarctic Ice Discussion

    Yes - plenty of evidence of volcanoes in Antarctica for millions of years. This from the excellent Swiss glacial site: http://www.swisseduc.ch/glaciers/earth_icy_planet/glaciers09-en.html?id=3 Past evidence of subglacial eruptions on James Ross Island, near the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is recorded in these volcanic rocks near Whisky Bay. Stretching back over some 10 million years, these volcanic rocks (called hyaloclastite) were produced as lava made contact with meltwater and broke up explosively into fragments. Then this from the excellent Antarctica.org site: http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glacial-geology/antarctic-ice-sheet/subglacial-volcanoes/ The full article is a great read. Map of Antarctica showing the distribution of volcanoes aged between c. 11 Ma and present. Only a small number are active. Mt Melbourne, another active Antarctic volcano. Ash layers from this volcano are present in the coastal ice cliffs. Finally this: https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/254270-scientists-find-91-additional-volcanos-antarctica-densest-concentration-earth Headline: Scientists Find 91 Volcanoes Underneath Antarctica’s Melting Ice - By Joel Hruska on August 17, 2017 There is loads more data on this but I have no time now - writing a glacial ice extent post for a US forum (which I may post on a suitable thread over here tomorrow). David
  14. Good morning everyone, I've been very busy on a US forum but I will cross-post onto both forums for my specialist Arctic, Greenland, Antarctica and teleconnections posts and of course I'll be here on own regional thread when I can and especially when things get really interesting. I've seen all your posts on the unusually cold night we had yesterday and many of us have recorded their lowest October minimums for many years. Even down here in Exmouth I managed -3.5c and Exeter was below -4c and it was below -5c just north of Exeter and towards some central parts of Devon (some final readings still to come in). Looks like these were the lowest values in England with only a gentle north east "off-shore" wind - lighter than elsewhere. It was colder in parts of Wales and Scotland (see map below). This was the lowest October minimum in Exmouth since official records began in the town in 1968! I'll try to track down earlier (unofficial records). To get this cold down here right on the coast (and by the mouth of the River Exe) at this time of the year (with SSTs by the coast still at 16c to 17c) we really need Arctic air, clear skies and a gentle north east drift - we get the first from time to time, not always the second and more rarely the third in combination. We often do not get a ground frost until well into November and on average our first air frost is in early December (with huge year to year variations of course). So this is quite exceptional. Photography is not one of my strong points but some of those sunsets last week in particular were truly spectacular and incredibly beautiful. I've seen a few great photos on here, so please forgive the quality of mine taken from an upstairs window in a rush: David
  15. Bring Back1962-63

    Arctic Ice Data And Stats.

    THE VERY WORRYING DECLINE IN OLDER ARCTIC ICE - THE LATEST POSITION Arctic sea ice minimum extent usually occurs during September. This year it was reached quite late on September 23rd. 2018 tied with 2008 seeing the sixth lowest minimum on record.  This as well as the very slow rate recovery have been discussed in recent posts on here. Although these extremely low levels of minimum ice extent are bad enough, even more worrying is the decline of older or multiyear ice. During the winter season new ice that forms over open water can grow up to 1.5 to 2 meters thick. This "first-year" ice is highly likely to melt the following summer. Any ice that survives the summer melt can grow at least twice as thick as first-year ice. The older the ice, the thicker it is likely to be and the more likely that it is likely to survive the next and future melt seasons. The chart below shows the distribution and age of the ice that survived the 2018 summer melt season. Week 38 end on September 23rd, when minimum ice was reached. Much of the surviving ice was 1 to 2 years old,rather less was 3 years old, a tiny amount was 4 years old and there was very little 5 years or older ice remaining. The next chart really puts this into context. During the 1980s almost half of the ice remaining was more than 5 years old. This has declined pretty steadily ever since and now there is practically no 5 year + ice remaining. There is even less 4 year old ice. 3 year old ice has been more variable and only declined slightly. 2 year old ice was remained fairly constant as has 1 year old ice but remember this is at the expense of older ice. Overall minimum ice extent has fallen from around 6.6 million square kilometers in 1985 to around 3.6 million in 2018. Multiyear ice (2 years and older) has fallen from around 4.4 million in 1985 to just under 2 million in 2018. The 5 year and older has has declined from around 2.3 million in 1985 to under 0.1 million (actually 94,000) square kilometers (36,000 square miles) this year. This chart shows us the thickness of the current ice sheet in meters. The ice that formed in the last few days on the Siberian and Russian side of the Arctic is just a few inches thick - up to 0.25m thick (the mauve colour). The ice is progressive thick the further west one goes. Much of this from the pole towards the Canadian Arctic is 2 to 3 meters thick. There is some that is over 3m thick and tiny patches of 4m or thicker ice. Compare this to the average thickness of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets which are 2,000 to 3,000m. Sea ice is much thinner than land ice but what there is in the Arctic, is generally thinning and melting. David EDIT: Hi MIA - @Midlands Ice Age, I think that this post covers your earlier comments on this thread about the decline in the older ice. I was going to do this update anyway but we are very much on the same "concerned" wavelength about this. David