wishingforsnow
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Posts posted by wishingforsnow
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... So summer is over then?
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There's no point in even trying. We're going to have to see a massive turnaround in the models and even the Met Office have predictably dropped their settled outlook. I'm getting sick of living in this country and experiencing the same Autumnal crappy weather every flipping season. Plans to re locate to a location where they get actual SEASONS are in the pipeline. Greenland and melting sea ice has ruined our climate and made it more Icelandic. It's awful. Practically EVERYWHERE IN EUROPE is getting normal summer temperatures and decent weather but the UK. After just one decent summer in almost 10 years I've had enough. It's not going to improve this year and it never will.
Rant over.
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If and only if it gets to August and there has been little in the way of settled and warm weather/heatwaves with unsettled weather prevailing and no improvement at all on the horizion, then I will say the summer has been a poor one. Until then there's plenty of time for periods of improvement and better weather. I'm not writing off the summer based on what the weather has been like in the past week to 10 days. Looks like after today an improvement should slowly start with temperatures up a couple of degrees into mid 20s for the South so it won't feel cooler than average and maybe slowly things will become more settled again once this week is over
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35 minutes ago, markyo said:
I agree,the clock is ticking and until we see that pattern change hold firm for a good period of time those chasing heat will be disappointed. Selfish though it is to say but this weather suits me fine,feel much more comfortable. But I know many crave that change.
There's 2 months of summer left. Plenty of time for a heatwave to happen. One already occurred in the South earlier this month. The weather outlooks don't look predominantely unsettled with no chance of settled weather at all and the Met Office are expecting spells of dry warm weather alternating with the unsettled spells so it's not all bad on the horizion anyway. Granted the chances for better weather look greater he further south you are though. Temperature wise it looks like average or above average except for the far North. Models have been indicating more settled weather to start July off at least, maybe this is a pushback of the more settled weather that was meant to arrive this week before it was clear it would be more unsettled than previously thought.
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7 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:
its pretty incredible most of last week models were very keen on some pretty warm humid and at times stormy conditions.
today a very different picture looks pretty wet at times in the south and southeast infact most of the uk the lower pressure seems stuck between heights to our west which tries to build into greenland but then turns into a mid atlantic block with higher heights to our se and east so then low pressure seems to get stuck in the middle.
very la nina like.
start of summer and we get this
La Nina hasn't fully started influencing our weather yet. The atmosphere is neutral right now. It's not all down to La Nina - our climate is complex and generally changeable. Models change their outlooks all the time so anything past T+144 can't be relied on with certainty. Hence even things like an improvement for July and even what the weather will be like for next week should be treated with caution as it could all change - things could get worse (hopefully not) or the models could continue with the improvement towards more settled weather as we end June and enter July. There could also be periods of more settled weather at the end of June mixed in with the spells of rain (as the Met Office say) Who knows right now?
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17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Output looks thoroughly uninspiring to be honest. Looking at the NH view at 168 hours, there is low pressure all over the north pole, but things are all at the wrong angle for the UK. Ridge around western Russia is making settled conditions here difficult. Hence while Moscow basks in the upper twenties all this week, we're going to have to put up with some fairly non descript weather.
It's not just the UK - but also Western Europe who have been plagued by this set up since last week giving more changeable weather to them too. Uninspiring? For the rest of June, maybe. Although the current models have shown the Azores high re establishing itself at the end of the month as posted by @Frosty. Temperature wise it looks better the more South you are. And hopefully the models continue with the hints of improvement for July.
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It's silly to write off the summer for everyone based on the fact that we are only just over halfway into June and though it hasn't been as settled as it was at the beginning it has been decent temperature wise in the South. According to the models July could see more in the way of high pressure influence across the South, to begin with and maybe it could spread north too? Who knows. But it's foolish to say there absolutely won't be any more good weather in July and August based on an unsettled second week in June. The Atlantic also hasn't been extremely active since March.
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My assessment of the models at the moment is that the rest of June could be rather changeable and mixed, and there probably won't be another settled spell of weather as we saw earlier in the month but early July could see more in the way of settled warm/hot weather especially the South with a better sw/ne jet profile orientated
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28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I agree Captain, what are the metoffice seeing though? They just talking wind and rain off the Atlantic, ECM/UKMO show absolutely nothing of the sort!!
Well, lets wait and see if they get on board with what the models are showing now which is even more improvement for next week and beyond
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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Comparing the Gfs / Ukmo 12z at T+144 hours, there is a massive gulf, the gfs is just as the met office described in their latest update. i.e.. an unsettled week whereas the ukmo is showing a warm anticyclonic spell...so whilst I would welcome the ukmo version, it is nothing like the current expert view.
I think UKMO's current forecasts for next week were probably done based on what the models were previously showing for which was before the gradual improvements towards a less unsettled picture. And now we have this stellar run from UKMO. Hopefully their upcoming forecasts reflect the latest trends and the high does indeed win out
As was mentioned earlier, it's a knife edge really.
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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I certainly hope it improves, I want us to have a good summer as much as anyone but I am just reporting it as things currently stand, at least the south should have some fair, warm spells between the rain but it's not looking good further n / w.
Well at least the models don't look completely Autumnal (eg this time in 2012). Nor do they look completely settled. It's going to be mixed for the rest of June and with a North South divide which is unfortunate if you're on the wrong side of it. Hopefully the prospect of a nationwide hot spell does return and get more support in the coming weeks. I'm sure the Met Office including this would mean there is/was some sort of signal indicating a possibility of that outcome but it's too far out to nail on as likely for now.
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1 hour ago, Hocus Pocus said:
It appears the spring barrier of forecasting has once again proven it's not wise to make calls until we've reached Summer. Does anyone have any past strong Nino to Niña charts which compare to the present, I know 98 went from a record Nino to a very strong Niña but I can't find anything similar to what's showing now?
98-99 had a very short neutral period in the Spring (around a month) before the Nina came steamrolling in May of 98 and continued into 1999.
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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
The GEFS 6z mean shows an improving weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west with the SE possibly holding on to fine and pleasantly warm weather into Monday but for the n / w it will be turning more unsettled. Looking at next week, it appears as though it will be an unsettled week with bands of rain separated by sunshine and showers and breezy at times with temps around average. The Azores high never has the support to build, apart from this weekend it's just out of reach on this run so we stay generally zonal, unsettled but the south is likely to have the best of any pleasantly warm, dry and sunny weather between occasional spells of rain with progressively cooler and more unsettled conditions further north but with a few drier and brighter spells between. The end of the mean hints that the Azores high could build in but this together with the latest met office outlook for both the 6-15 and 16-30 day don't indicate any anticyclonic spell out to the middle of July, certainly nothing settled nationwide. You may not like this but I'm only saying it as it is.
It did a few days ago but it was removed. Probably because it was low confidence they aren't sure yet if the Azores high will get a chance to build over the UK as a whole or just the South. It's on the periphery but there is a chance it could build. I think they're just waiting to see how things will go for the rest of the month, there could be a slow improvement to settled and warm weather for the UK as a whole or the North/South split could remain. The models are very undecided on that and July is still 3 weeks away at the earliest.
But in the immediate timeframe, next week onwards isn't looking terrible with drier and warmer conditions especially in the South present in between rain bands. Temperatures look a couple of degrees warmer than this week too.
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It's good to see improvements on next week as we approach it as opposed to things changing for the worse. ECM and GEM look like giving the best conditions if they come off, temperatures would be a little cooler on the GFS but to me it's not completely zonal which is good. According to the Met Office a North-South divide should establish itself for the rest of June but into July there could be high pressure extending itself to the rest of the UK.
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A few wet days and this story breaks http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/uk-weather-june-could-be-wettest-ever-recorded-as-wimbledon-and/
Not really acccurate at all as next week already looks like an improvement on this one starting from the South and though the models look mixed and can't decide on one outcome I don't see any outcome like June 2012 at all
Glastonbury right now is looking mixed with warm sunny periods and Wimbledon is too far off to call. There's even the possibility of further high pressure influence at the end of the month with the fact that it's been showing up on runs though uncertain of timing as the swings in outlook have been dependant on the splitting trough. Still at best we get a mixture of warm sunshine and showers with more unsettled weather further North, but not a washout for the rest of the month by any means I don't think.
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16 hours ago, knocker said:
But judging from the Met Office update, a gradual improvement again for the South at least as July approaches. Temperatures should be recovering next week too.
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Outlook for the rest of June looks like a North South split developing after this upcoming unsettled week, though a chance that UK wide high pressure and warmer weather could come for July - Low confidence in that at the moment according to the Met because early July is still a couple of weeks away, hopefully it comes off though
They were right about high pressure in June mixed with breakdowns of showers and longer spells of rain, as we're seeing now. I personally think this will be the general theme of weather this summer: a mixed bag. A rise in pressure again this weekend after a gloomy few days will be most welcome. At least these Atlantic grey/wet periods look to be transient and not completely dominating the summer like 2007.
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The models don't liok
10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:It's not fresher at all today, cooler perhaps in terms of temperature but not fresher in terms of the humidity- last night was one of the warmest nights of the year for most.
Yeah feels a couple of degrees cooler here (22c) compared to the last few days. Still pretty humid though.
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Not sure what all the moaning is about
In all fairness at the moment, judging by the Met Office it doesn't look that bad regarding next week for the South. My opinion is that the worst will be this weekend and early-middle part of next week before a North - South split develops for the rest of June. We may lose the hot, dry weather for a few days/a week but that doesn't mean it won't return and we'll be plunged into a 2007/2012 summer pattern especially as it looks like the wetter/cooler weather for next week won't last long for us and La Nina hasn't fully developed yet. The Met have been bullish about drier weather and warmer temperatures returning after next week for the South and into July possibly for the whole of the UK and I'd say they were spot on for their June outlook: high pressure warm weather periods interspersed with a breakdown bringing showers and longer spells of rain.
It's Summer in the UK after all, we're supposed to get a mixed bag of weather due to our location it would be rare that we got a default 3 months of wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures but it looks like we'll get some good periods of nice weather with decent hot temperatures as well as some occasional wetter/cooler periods like next week
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24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
ECM offers a very faint glimmer of hope by 240 hours, as low pressure edges away east, heights drop over the Greenland area, and the Azores high starts to edge north. Perhaps by the final 10 days of June something a bit better may be on the cards. Until then it could be some classic British sunshine and heavy showery weather.
Yes ECM was starting to show improvements from last night by downgrading the intensity of the LP period next week and showing HP edging is, as it is still doing now. Models showing improvements this close to the start of next week is encouraging. I think the only really 'bad' period will be the start-middle of next week as for my location temperatures drop to high teens at the start of next week with showery weather but creep up to low 20s by the weekend. Would tie in with what the Met currently think too; that this 'unsettled' period shouldn't be more than a brief cooler/wetter interlude for a few days to a week depending on your location (and with dry sunny periods interspersed between)
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The models are not looking as bad for the next week as they did 2 days ago. The worst should be Monday-Thursday and from Friday to next weekend it could be drier again. Met Office seems to paint a picture of a north/south split and a trend towards warmer conditions later on. To be fair the outlook they were going for with High Pressure influence in June followed by periods of Low Pressure has been give or take accurate. Hot spells are usually followed by a breakdown though for how long and if these breakdowns become entrenched weather patterns for the UK for weeks/months depends on synoptics. To me there should be enough High Pressure influence and a weak enough jet (temporarily spiked by Low Pressure influence next week) for High Pressure and warmer weather to easily return after a temporary period of unsettled weather following this warm spell. The Jet has already been very strong during late 2015 and the first part of 2016 so taking that into account, any Atlantic influence should be shorter in length than the weather we got in Winter 15/16 and Summer 2007/2012 which were preceded by a predominantely dry Summer and Autumn (2015) and Winter/Spring (2007/2012) where there was less Atlantic influence. Whereas in years such as 2012 the Jet was due to peak in strength in the Summer due to having a weak jet up until the Spring. Trends in the models recently (eg ECM making the low pressure slow moving throughout the week with periods of pleasant sunshine in between and High Pressure edging in at the end of a few model runs too) have laid off the strength in the supposed 'Atlantic onslaught' for next week in that it may not be as strong, as was previously modelled earlier this week which is a good sign if this trend continues
I wouldn't be so pessimistic as to say most of June is a write off from the output for only 7-10 days for next week. In fact if the models continue to downgrade the low pressure influence it, as I suspect may not be too bad, only with slightly cooler temps than this week and more rain but slow moving so dry spells in between. To me it's just a temporary usual unsettled spell following a hot period of weather but nothing to get worried about for the rest of the Summer. Met Office is also currently backing warmer conditions to slowly return after next week.
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6 hours ago, Tamara said:
Superb analysis Tamara. Encouraging to see the signs of a reverse pattern of years like 2011 where the opposite pattern was happening to give us the unseasonably cool and wet Autumnal summer weather
As for the more recent timeframe, this is one of the rare occasions recently where I hope that the GFS is right over the ECM. If it isn't well I think that any Atlantic steam train won't last for more than a week tops anyway. At least it's finally getting warmer from next week
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22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
I have seen a lot worse, 850s are actually fairly warm so surface temperatures should still be pretty decent and with cold air aloft there should be some beefy showers which would be slow moving. Still a long way off with conditions improving by the weekend as the strong NE wind eases and becomes more variable.
Low twenties by Saturday, a huge improvement on the low to mid teens for the rest of the week.
Looks like Summer begins next week
The cool and cloudy crud can't go away soon enough!
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Just now, Summer Sun said:
Up-to Wednesday it doesn't look too bad warmer for all parts with more in the way of sunshine D8 to 10 sees the low breaking through so turning more unsettled with some rain / showers for all parts at some point
Looks like a transient low though, and with High Pressure never far away it could return after
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Glastonbury right now is looking mixed with warm sunny periods and Wimbledon is too far off to call. There's even the possibility of further high pressure influence at the end of the month with the fact that it's been showing up on runs though uncertain of timing as the swings in outlook have been dependant on the splitting trough. Still at best we get a mixture of warm sunshine and showers with more unsettled weather further North, but not a washout for the rest of the month by any means I don't think.
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by wishingforsnow
Yeah going from the models in general since last week a change for the worse definitely happened. This August will probably be like June 2012 knowing our luck. Settled weather will be rare until September. The Met Office will probably get on board soon and accept that high pressure and warm weather won't return for god knows how long. Certainly not for the next 4 weeks. Summer is definitely over now
Meanwhile Europe will continue to roast in 25 - 30 degrees we will get battered by endless rain, howling winds, below average temperatures and floods with no end in sight for at least a month if not more now. Sigh.