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Frank_Wx

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Everything posted by Frank_Wx

  1. Frank_Wx
    Looks like a 10hPa Strat PV split on today's 12z GFS by Day 10
  2. Frank_Wx
    What are the general signals to a precursor pattern? What should I be looking for?
  3. Frank_Wx
    The Day 10 forecasts are beginning to signal a moderate wave 2 warming event will occur in the upper and mid levels of the Stratosphere. Whether or not this leads to the collapse of the Strat PV remains to be seen. Let's first get this look within Day 5. Here is the ECM OP 10hPa at Day 10. Vortex is looking pretty elongated there.
  4. Frank_Wx
    What's the difference between U wind on Attards site and this NASA "Merra" site?
  5. Frank_Wx
    Zonal winds in the upper Strat are weakening. QBO values have been trending toward neutral (at 30mb at least). Wave 2 event on the EURO is pretty impressive We've seen models split the PV in the lower and mid levels...but this is the first time I'm seeing it at 10Hpa. Granted it's quite a long way out.
  6. Frank_Wx
    At the very least seem to be making progress...
  7. Frank_Wx
    Looks like Dateline / MJO tropical forcing will feedback into western NA mid level ridging come January
  8. Frank_Wx
    If Tropospheric ridges drive splits in the lower Strat, what is there to drive splits further upstream?
  9. Frank_Wx
    So....
  10. Frank_Wx
    I noticed increased geopotential heights around Scandinavia beginning next week and beyond. Does this enhance energy transfer from the Troposphere to Stratosphere at all?
  11. Frank_Wx
    It seems GFS OP is really trying to weaken / displace the PV by 300+ hours. Here was the 18z run at 10hPa.
  12. Frank_Wx
    Here's another perspective from 12z GFS OP 10hPa
  13. Frank_Wx
    What type of impact does tropospheric ridging bring to the Stratosphere?
  14. Frank_Wx
    Too bad this is day 15, but cool to see.
  15. Frank_Wx
    Has anyone heard / seen this plot from Meteorologist Ryan Ashoka? It suggests strong early Autumn PVs lead to dramatic weakening by late Dec / early Jan. Interesting.
  16. Frank_Wx
    Hi all, Just wanted to take the time to thank you for putting together an excellent and fascinating read about the Stratosphere and its effects on us in the Troposphere. I am a long time weather enthusiast, but never fully understood the mechanisms behind what drives the Stratosphere and in turn our sensible weather at the surface. I came across your site from a Google search looking to learn more about the Stratosphere. I am glad it brought me here It seems most of you are from the UK. I am from the U.S. I'm not sure how often I will be posting but definitely wanted to take the time to just say thanks. Best, Frank
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