SxK

Don’t trust the apps in these circumstances

ECM falls into line with UKMO at 120. UKMO makes a habit of calling these situations correctly, has done for years.

Sun is going down so the heat source of the convective showers is no longer there. They will all die off after sunset

Generally best to stick to the operational and control runs when there is higher than normal uncertainty as they are run at higher resolution. Also an outlier by definition would place the operational run away from the other ensembles, that is not the case here although I agree it is at the bottom of the ensembles in terms of depth of cold for this weekend. But, yes, caution required as always is the case whenever cold is forecast, it is never straight forward for our little island.

Rain at Shenfield

This could well be your Michael Fish moment. Looks pretty bad to me. Gradient is far tighter on current GFS run and 90mph+ winds would result from the gradient across areas of Western England. There will be widespread damage if that verifies as projected. Powercuts, roofs off, and potentially injuries or worse.

I think everyone needs to be a bit patient with respect to February as there is nothing on the horizon to flip the models to sustained cold in the next 2 weeks. However if you look beyond that then the MJO is just starting to click into gear and by month end the ECM ensembles have the MJO in phases 7/8. This is outside the range of our typical models so they are not going to be picking up the NH trop reaction to this yet but the composite for phase 8 looks is below. Not bad hey? I reckon a week/10 days down the line we might start to see some more favourable modelling for a more sustained cold outbreak end of Feb into early March. I thought Fergie's post this morning re: Glosea was very interesting, we'll just have to wait to see how it all pans out but do not give up just yet...

LOL, if we are getting this desperate we really are in trouble! In all seriousness though while the models are dire at present I do see the MJO getting into a high amplitude phase 6 or 7 perhaps even phase 8 later into Feb which should have a positive impact in terms of delivering high level blocking. Phase 8 would be the ideal. Nick mentioned that it is ECM and UKMO vs GEFS on this front. EMON and BOMM both see the MJO getting into phase 7 at least by end of Feb so therefore agree with ECM and UKMO obviously a way off so caution needed but after the next week or so I am reasonably confident we should start to see some improved model output.

I suspect the fact that Glosea is not seeing any SSW into well into Feb tells us everything we need to know. That said the stress on the vortex should still open up some opportunities for colder interludes while we await the big daddy SSW. Lets just hope it is not too late for our winter.

SK, I agree, the front is a LOT further east than models are projecting especially when you review the radar overlay on loop. The only thing we need to watch is precipitation intensity which is already declining on the southern extent.

Core of Front looks a good 150miles east of model projections to me. Both GFS and Euro4 have heaviest precip over Irish Sea at 3pm. Radar clear shows this much further east. Those saying they are too far east might get a nice surprise.

Comparison of 0z and 6z GFS ensembles does show big improvement on cold prospects with virtually all members now trending cold.

I understood GP's post in that it was comments offered in relation to broad hemisphere movements towards a negative NAO. Shortwaves are relevant, but not until we get the negative NAO pattern in place. GP's advice is quite sound, sit back, crack open a beer and watch the pattern unfold. We have plenty of time to worry about shortwaves in due course, but not right now.

Short term pain for long term gain perhaps. High orientation sends some toasty WAA up into the arctic at T168. Even if we miss this attempt then this may help to weaken the vortex in January.

ECM says no for now, but improves on 0z run. If the trend continues over next 24 hours then things could get interesting for cold lovers.

Potential for a storm or two in SE England overnight tonight

The only slight slight positive is that the Cat 5 winds are in a narrow band 15miles across the eye. Landfall location therefore becomes critical, lets hope the eye lands in a sparsely populated area.

Complex developments around an unpredictable low pressure tonight but quite a few models (NAE, NMM) develop storms across the south coast. Other models support development of storms around the low pressure core as it moves across SE England for tomorrow mornings commute. NMM in particular suggests a storm risk across Essex.

It's looking like a bust for SE England

Things should be getting going about now in the channel. Nothing yet so patience required!

Anyone have any views on potential for tomorrow night?

You thinking the increased amplification from the potential MJO solutions could assist us here Chio?

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf

Holyhead in Wales likely to be the sweet spot but obviously puts you right in the middle of natures fury so perhaps you should watch from behind the curtains in Derby

I think it's worth emphasising that both GFS and NMM have downgraded snow risk for tonight. Euro4 awaited.