northwestsnow

GFS ️ EC Hopefully EC an outlier .. Nope, mean is pants..

It would be great if the hard core ( I'm looking at @Ali1977 @feb1991blizzard ) could be rewarded for their persistance. Ive thrown the towel in myself, not because snow isnt possible into march ,because i lose interest mid feb onwards for various reasons..

chrisnoy sorry Chris CC climate change

mulzy bang on . One of the reasons I would never ever dismiss the tremendous work the telecommunications experts do in their field. However, CC is the elephant and one can't help but wonder if background drivers are unable to overcome the warm SSTS in the Atlantic ( stronger jet).

TEITS agreed. I posted on the post mortem thread,a tipping point has been reached for me. The rare times we do see Northern Blocking take hold it simply is no match for the Atlantic and gets blown away rapidly.Perhaps we are seeing CC related warm Atlantic ssts taking over ? I've given up on eps etc,sick to death of reading eps look amazing at day 15 to see as day 0 counts down we get mild south westerlies,it happens every single Winter. Fair play to the hard-core coldies sticking it out.

ENS showing a cooling down just in time for Spring. I'm no nostradamus but it's a hallmark of a rubbish winter..

Imagine if we forward 50 years ( I for one won't be here ) and people talk about this current winter as frigid !! Scary ..

Rush2019 I don't post too much but I just saw your post and wanted to send you my best wishes ,take care and good luck here's to a healthy future for you

Lukesluckybunch We just got to hope we get some dry weather.

chrisnoy meteociel Chris. Click on ECMWF and the 0.4 run.

Again I will post the graph of European winters since 1850 It is absolutely pointless posting a chart from Feb 1922 saying look how mild it was on that particular day or week ,the point is the milder days are becoming more frequent ,the trend is as unambiguous as you could wish for and the warming trend since the late 1980s is clear for all to see...

Mike Poole last line all day long. After 20 years of chasing cold ive reached the tipping point. I'll visit this great site of course and ramp away when the opportunity arises ,but the days of ' oh look at those eps ' at day 15 are over because lets call a spade a spade here , 99% of those cold eps turn out to be cyber / reality cold .

Frigid again I agree with everything you wrote. CC has taken the fun out of the chase because 99% of the time the fabulous eps at day 15 turn out to be a mirage. I don't feel angry , just defeated.

Bristawl Si quite. Except that list has aways been the same ,so what's changed? And yes,things have changed ,dramatically ..

Met4Cast I agree .. I'll pop in here every winter but the tipping point has been reached for me now,there is only so many times you can chase cold and end up with nothing before logic takes over. Whatever combo we get ( nino nina qbo etc) doesn't work for us.. The CC elephant is in the room.

MJB seriously yes .. Take a look at the graph of temperatures in European Winters .. You will see a trend that is impossible to counter..yes there are cold spells are you have pointed out ,but you don't have to be Einstein to see how this will end ref UK cold spells ?

I was going to write an obituary on UK winters .. Anyway, 00z runs pretty much shutting the door on any High Lat blocking effecting us anytime soon, i for one absolutely do subscribe to background drivers like ENSO ,SSTS qbo etc etc but after years of being here it's got to the point whereby any combo doesn't fit for uk winter cold.There is always ,well 99% of the time something that goes wrong. If I had a pound for everytime the eps for example look amazing at day 10 to 15 then downgraded to zilch I'd be a millionaire. Hopefully we can and will see cold spells but they are now becoming almost non existent. I'm losing interest at a rate of knots,I'm only here in winter for the cold and to be honest it's becoming a waste of time ...

feb1991blizzard 30 -40 days ?? You really are hardcore

Met4Cast They are awful. The really worrying thing is even with decent background signals we end up mild and wet,it's happening year in year out. There is an elephant in the room ...

Really poor 00z outputs. I hope we get some relief by means of a block if anything just to dry us out. As far as" winter "is concerned however...

Don yeah Ive had enough now. Only thing keeping me remotely interested is EC46. Each to their own but we need super cold uppers by mid Feb and well,its not going to happen. The sheer volume of rainfall locally this Winter is just diabolical.

The Northern Ramper lamppost watching i cant tell you how many hours i spent staring at the streetlight in the late 70s to mid 80s ...

hope it's a good event for as many as possible. I'm not sure my altitude be as important as expected it will be more the rain shadow effect that spoils things here. Give me an Easterly every single time, kasim has probably explained very well why Oldham does well in an Easterly.. ( north easterlies work too btw).

Kasim Awan Absolutely. BFTE was absolutely epic locally.. Saddleworth gets hammered in an Easterly flow..

Ali1977 fingers crossed for you mate we've spent so many hours chasing down cold spells with little reward this winter I be chuffed for you if the low ends up south..