Frost HoIIow

A day of two halves here. Nice bright start then went gradually downhill since with showery rain, some heavy on and off from about 1pm. Looking further ahead and it looks like we've moved away from a chilly outlook until probably November now. Looking like this month will be another possibly ending up above average temp wise.

Probably a lot to do with the airmasses and lag effect in the northern hemisphere. Early to mid Autumn takes a while for it to cool down properly from the summer. Just like in early to mid spring despite the strengthening sun we can get snow and it often takes a while to warm up. Like the saying goes "as the days get longer the cold gets stronger", especially true after the winter solstice. January and February are usually the coldest months despite the sun gaining strength. It's like June is rarely the hottest time of year despite peak UV. Often it's about mid July to mid August. All to do with the lag effect again.

If we're talking modern times then I agree with a face like thunder. So late 1987 was probably when things started to really change. Because before this we had the bitter spell in January 87. Then before that we had the very cold February 86, coldest month since 1962-63. February 86 was the last sub zero CET month until December 2010 I believe.

A couple of ensembles still going for a potent cold blast. Not likely to happen but still the chance is there. This is encouraging going forward though later in the year because most ensemble members in winter can often be devoid of cold. The fact we're seeing this now is intriguing.

Not a bad day today, downhill again tomorrow though but another good top up for the reservoirs.

Funnily enough I find it's the opposite for me. If I wear a winter coat anytime through September and October I tend to take it off most years as I get too warm as temps tend to be well into double figures even under cloud, once into November though and this isn't an issue as we can start to get some genuinely cold days. I can a winter coat in Spring right through April and feel ok, especially if it's a chilly month. May though and the sun definitely gets too strong to wear winter gear and by then single figure max temps become rare anyway but not unheard of.

Very much an outliner but .....

Rain slowly moving in from the west this evening leading to a wet night. Looking at the models further on and I'd say we're looking at an average month as in temperatures. The potential for some chilly mornings too should we get some ridges in-between weather systems. Looks like no exceptionally mild stuff that we've had in recent October's.

Doesn't surprise me. Have family about 50 miles north of Sydney and they've said how rainy it's been over the last year, raining almost every day. Wasn't so long ago the water in dams for drinking water that served Sydney was dangerously low after prolonged drought.

Yeah the colours are really coming along too on some types of tree. Looks like it'll peak in about a week or two then we're left in a more winter state with twigs . Onto the actual weather and it's been great to have this rain as it has surely helped the reservoirs on the Pennines that were low. No doubt the brooks that flow into them have been like crazy rapids. Just need some more and I think we'll be ok. Then I'll be content with drier colder weather.

Certainly cold years for October. Even more unusual being back to back I guess. In both we didn't get above 10C from the middle of these months right through to the end. In Oct 1993 we had a minimum temp of -7C on the morning of the 17th (coldest morning of those two October's). The previous day we didn't get higher than 5C. Had many a day in January milder than that. Also had 3 days in Oct 1992 that never risen above 5C too. Overall here there was 14 air frosts in Oct 1992 and 10 in the following October. Extraordinary really. Anyone know the CET for these October's?

17C in the bedroom here with no heating where I'm working on my laptop, this is fine with just a jumper on. We only have the heating on for 10 mins in the morning at the moment.

Fantastic winter that was. Even better than the following one as there was good spells of snow in each winter month. Nov/Dec 2010 burst out the blocks quick but after that it just got milder and milder with February 2011 ending up very mild.

Gaviscon sorted

Next update will likely be a lot higher I'd imagine as the bulk of the rain we've had was from late Sunday to now. With more to come.

Thinking about cutting the grass early tomorrow before the rain comes. I bet others have the same idea because there might not be much more opportunities after as it does look fairly unsettled!

That's default stuff though. I think the government might be seeing cold as far west as Germany or France or even the UK. So hence their concern....... but we could tap into it. Not that I'm wishing a really cold winter because a lot will be struggling with their bill. Also worth remembering the public doesn't get to see all the long term forecast data. Some of it remains with the Met Office but they feed it to the government.

A cold winter in Europe gives us a better chance of cold here though. It's just getting that cold to move west that is often the big obstacle

GFS operational showing a chilly northerly mid month. The ensembles did hint out at this for the last few days so maybe it's onto something with the op. Or maybe not could disappear next run. Snow for the Scottish mountains. Close to 10cm. A real shame it's not 2 months down the line!

Yes especially if we had ice day after ice day but for that we need impressive synoptics ala 2010 to deliver these conditions day in day out because once temps get above zero it's drip drip regardless of the sun strength or lack of. And that's the problem in this country because on the continent they need less impressive synoptics than us for snow to fall and stick around, dew points are lower there and they get ice days more easily than here an island cut off from the cold continent. We need everything in our favour to get a notable cold spell.

Heavy shower here but I'm just a couple of miles to the north of the real torrential stuff it would seem looking at the radar.

Certainly Autumnal here today with a *rare* frontal rain event, and some trees are very much on the turn for sure. Hopefully this rain today will have helped the reservoirs

All indicative that things aren't "normal" at the minute with weather systems dropping down from more northern and eastern climbs. Come Dec 1st though and you can guarantee business as usual. Everything will be from the south and west and we'll be sick of the rain. Then like magic northern blocking arrives in a vengeance come spring.

Looking decidedly nasty in Tampa, Florida as hurricane Ian makes landfall nearby. Tampa (United States of America) weather WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Tampa 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

Chilly start here with a low of 0.6C Looks like the airport got down to 2C. Overall not been a bad day and it warmed up enough to feel pleasant in the afternoon sunshine. The sun still has a slight kick to it but it's clearly on the wane. Shadows on the ground are getting longer indicative of the lower sun angle.