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El ninyaknow

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  1. Klaus and Wolter developed a fairly robust MEI index using reconstructed analysis data characterizing ENSO behaviour since 1871. This MEI index this will take you back all the way. Other, possibly more suspect literature attempts to go back the 1600's to look at solar cycle impacts/relationship on/to ENSO but its not reliable, note the MEI index possibly over does the 1877/78 event surpassing the 1997/98, but I guess we will never truly know! Good luck with your research - you may want to investigate how the different ENSO classification "flavours" of warm events affects your results.
  2. It will certainly help to focus the convective maximum towards the central Pacific, and hence a CP signal upper air pattern highlighted this week by VP 200 anomalies (Twitter post my Mike ventrice- not sure how to post photos on my phone) . Whether or not the most recent KW which was impressive in terms of its magnitude and longevity will have a slight decelerating effect on the cooling of late in the Nino 1.2 region remains to be seen. The eastward extension of the EA jet is another growing demonstration of the attractive forcing of warm SST anomalies becoming increasingly confined to the cen
  3. Nice kick in the Nino 3 and 3.4 regions in response to latest KW, also a little deepening of the thermocline in the WPAC, should keep this quite remarkable event going a little longer and perhaps strengthen the late season CP signal which has been trying to emerge between successive WWBs that just keep on coming!! Using tropical SST analogues is becoming increasingly difficult if not impossible this year!! Looking for that cheeky wave number 5 pattern to emerge across the Pacific and keep the Azores high imprisioned in the Azores well into spring :-)
  4. Physical model forecasts too progressive with removal of heat from the Pacific basin due to under expectation of next downwelling KW about mid month which will slow the heat removal or perhaps even add some heat for a time towards the months end before a slower more seasonal decline of heat through Feb. This extra heat retention may prove useful for sustaining a meridional component to atmospheric waves late in the season which may entice any Azores High formation towards the NW rather than trying to move back towards its climatological position and flatten any -NAO signal and spoil the party
  5. Actually era20 re-analysis data using the SODA ocean suite can replicate ENSO behaviour back to 1870. Although the 1877/88 EP event is often too strong.
  6. New to this game, but I thought I would add a little if I can. Most recent down welling (warming phase) of a kelvin wave started ~at the dateline at the end of October on a similar trajectory as K1 and K2 with roughly a 3-4 week lag time lag time between warming the Nino 4 region and affecting the 1+2 region. This has been witnessed 4 times in 2015, notably two successive times in jun and July not allowing any upwelling cooling phase to intervene producing a net warming effect upon Nino 3.4 region. Currently the Nino 4 and 3.4 regions are at 1.8 and 3.1 degrees above average respectively a
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