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Fiona Robertson

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Everything posted by Fiona Robertson

  1. Fiona Robertson
    Just to get in here, it was the GFS that also picked up on the extreme heat for 18th/19th July 2022 about 10 days ahead of time. I wrote a post about it - The Little Model Who Could.
  2. Fiona Robertson
    I couldn't find the cold front with a map and detailed instructions.
  3. Fiona Robertson
    Just something that I thought I'd mention in the face of peeps complaining about accuracy of warning areas. Look up Lorenz, differential equations, chaos theory and butterfly effect, so-called because of the shapeof the graph that his equations generated.
  4. Fiona Robertson
    See, these are the explanations I like. We all tend to assume everything is linear. This explanation makes it so much clearer to me. Thank you!
  5. Fiona Robertson
    OK, I didn't need this... a tornado watch...excuse me? I have quite enough to be going on with. Gonna complain to the management now...
  6. Fiona Robertson
    I've been musing about that and I can see both sides. We'll always run into this when warnings take into account the magnitude of the impact to the population, rather than just the weather itself. The impact will always be greater in more populous areas. Personally, I'm on the side of the ten sheep in the Peak District, but I'm biased cos I have two horses stabled in a field shelter held to the ground with angled 12" ground bolts in Scotland's central belt. Luckily it's in a sheltered position (east side of the house). The thought of trying to round up livestock in the teeth of this storm in the middle of the night is the stuff of nightmares (second only to emergency vet visit to panicking, lame horse on Bonfire night...yes, that happened) and it's the livestock farmers and rural peeps who would have to go out in the conditions if the MO "under warns". While a dual warning system, one for the actual weather conditions and one for impacts, would be very useful, it risks over-complicating the warning system and there are enough peeps struggling with the one we have. Bottom line, I have no answer... sigh...
  7. Fiona Robertson
    Motoring along quite nicely right now, thank you very much.
  8. Fiona Robertson
    Just to illustrate what I see going on here, there was a complaint a wee while ago about Met Eireann naming a storm because "it wasn't that bad in Leicester"...not Leinster, Leicester.
  9. Fiona Robertson
    In my humble opinion, informing peeps of possibly incoming, damaging weather allows them to make an informed choice. NOT telling them takes away that ability to make an informed choice. If they inform, then it is your choice whether to take note or ignore it. If they don't inform then they have made the choice to ignore it for you. Which one is the nanny state? Weather warnings are dependent on probabilities. They don't dictate what weather you are 100% going to get. I don't begrudge a weather warning which alerts peeps to possible damaging weather just because the edge of the warning area was out by a few miles or because some in a more sheltered position didn't get it so bad. To repeat, it's all about allowing peeps to make an informed choice... operative word being informed.
  10. Fiona Robertson
    I think that @Eagle Eye posted on this topic about 2 hrs ago.
  11. Fiona Robertson
    Somewhere further up this thread I saw someone post a model showing possibly 90+mph gusts for Western Isles and another model showing less. For the sake of the livestock I'd go with the worst one, just in case. I have horses and always prepare for worst case scenario (hubby claims that the horses themselves are a worst case scenario)
  12. Fiona Robertson
    And over 90% of Scotland's population lives in the central belt.
  13. Fiona Robertson
    One of the complicating factors is that the central belt of Scotland is basically a valley running west to east, from coast to coast. Given the right direction it can act like a giant wind tunnel. I think it was the last bunch of snow warnings which showed this topography quite nicely - weather warnings north and south of the central belt, but nothing for the central belt itself. And it's through that wind tunnel that the M8 runs, from Glasgow to Edinburgh. It's also the most densly populated part of Scotland. A slight difference in wind direction can make a huge difference in wind strength. I'd hate to be a forecaster with responsibility for pinning down max gust strengths through this area when the precise track of the storm is still a tad uncertain.
  14. Fiona Robertson
    This morning's eye candy, temps at 10 hPa
  15. Fiona Robertson
    Thanks for this heads-up, @Ice Day. This one has me worried. I recently had a tree partially come down on my stables building. It was the low branches at one side and the cracking noises of the trunk as I walked under it and into the tack room which alerted me and I ran for my life. It wasn't a named storm, it wasn't a forecast storm, it wasn't even forecast high winds, it was just an entire night of unexpected howling wind. I watch this forum, I try to watch the models and I had no idea that high winds were coming in that night. And that's why this one has me worried - it's been noticed. At least I now get the chance to wander around for a couple of days looking for anything that hasn't been nailed down with 6 inch nails (that includes the horses) and get the stables and haynets prepared for a few days of 24/7 stabling.
  16. Fiona Robertson
    This evening's eye candy
  17. Fiona Robertson
    This morning's eye candy. Set on temp at 10hPa, green circle over pole. Checked through the various hPas. Tilt on the right hand side is less than yesty, tilt on LHS has developed.
  18. Fiona Robertson
    Thank you! Fantastic links. I thought I was imagining things. If the vortex splits is it usually top down or bottom up?
  19. Fiona Robertson
    I've done this as a separate post cos I am a numpty when it comes to editing posts with an image in. I marked the centre of the area of circulation in the image above, it's way towards the right,to use as a reference point andthen I cycled through the various altitudes. Images are 70 hPa, 250 hPa and 500 hPa. Notice that at 70 hPa the centre of circulation has relocated, but the overall elongated shape remains. At 250 hPa, the elongated shape remains, but there are now 2 distinct areas of circulation, one on the left, one on the right, but the centre of the one on the right is in the same place as the 70h Pa one. At 500 hPa same thing. What point am I making? None, it's more of a question or two. Is the polar vortex tilted, ie is the top of it being pushed over by the warming high? And is the warmer area to the west of the UK at 500 hPa pushing into the vortex from a lower altitude.Tomy completely untrained eye it appears that the big area of warming is elongating the vortex and then at lower altitude the vortex could be split and the split propagate upwards?
  20. Fiona Robertson
    Today's eye candy. 10 hPa.
  21. Fiona Robertson
    I've been keeping an eye on that. Yesty a little area of temps in the positive popped up.It's gone today, but it looked to be motoring to the pole.
  22. Fiona Robertson
    You have another 11 hrs to go until the end of the wind warning. It began at 11 am and ends at 3 am Sunday morning.
  23. Fiona Robertson
    Snowing in Central Belt, just started.
  24. Fiona Robertson
    Just some more eye candy. EarthNullschool set to temp and 10hPa. Wee green circle shows temp of -9.5C which is a tad higher than I expected 10hPa over Scotland right now is -68C
  25. Fiona Robertson
    You all get so technical in here and while I do appreciate all of the info and even understand some of it, I thought I'd just post some eye candy. Earthnull school set to temp at 10 hPa with wee green circle bang on N (-61.8C). I have no point to make really, just enjoying the pretty piccies.
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