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reef

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Everything posted by reef

  1. It most certainly wasn't cold. It had a mean of 9.8C, making it the 24th warmest in the CET series. There have only been 6 warmer Aprils since 1949!
  2. Indeed, there's definitely something fishy about those Heathrow numbers. Looking at the figures compared to mine locally, there's no way that 9 out of the last 11 summers would be sunnier here than down there. Its just not possible when you consider how Heathrow is further south and benefits from arguably more setups when it comes to sunshine. Summer 2010 for example was generally a NW/SE split, yet Heathrow apparently had 492hrs compared to 573hrs here and 602hrs in the general south-east region. I don't buy that for a second. I suspect the Metoffice are adjusting in some way for the instrument changes on their anomaly maps pages, as this suggests closer to 560hrs for Heathrow that summer: For summer 2017 it has closer to 620hrs, as opposed to 557hrs on the raw figures: That's more than here and much more in line with what you would expect.
  3. That's not the case, we're in the east and it has been as sunny as the already high 1981-2010 mean. So much so that the 1991-2020 mean will likely be higher still. Last 11 summers here compared to the 1981-2010 average of 567hrs: 2007: 550hrs (97%) 2008: 517hrs (91%) 2009: 602hrs (106%) 2010: 573hrs (101%) 2011: 552hrs (97%) 2012: 444hrs (78%) 2013: 640hrs (113%) 2014: 619hrs (109%) 2015: 589hrs (104%) 2016: 556hrs (98%) 2017: 599hrs (106%) All pretty close to average apart from the dire 2012. They average out at 100.1% of normal over the 11 years exactly. Only 5 of those summers were wetter than average and 3 were cooler than average (and even then by no more than 0.3C below average). We really haven't done too badly at all, locally at least.
  4. The decline in thunderstorms here has gone hand in hand with most warm spells in recent years tending to have an easterly component to the wind. Quite often storms approach from the south or south-west but are promptly killed off by the onshore breeze. The same onshore breeze also keeps maxima down, which is probably why we havent reached 30C for 17 years now. We have seen occasional storms as you get every summer, but the last direct hit was in August 2012. I'll have to check my stats to see if there has been a notable decline, but it certainly feels that way.
  5. Welcome to the forum. The negative numbers refer to the opposite direction. A latitude of 55 indicates 55 degrees north whereas -55 would equal 55 degrees south. Likewise for the longitude, 90 would indicate 90 degrees east and -90 would indicate 90 degrees west. In this case your values are a latitude of 54.108967 North and a longitude of 3.218894 West. Hope this helps!
  6. Clear and sunny throughout. The maximum of 26.1C was the warmest here in 38 years of records, breaking the old record set in 2011 by a whole 2.1C. Only 9 days have been warmer here since 1980 before 15th June. Max Temp: 26.1C Min Temp: 9.1C Mean Wind: 8mph SE Max Gust: 15mph Sunshine: 14.0hrs Rainfall: None Currently clear and calm with a temp of 15.3C.
  7. The south-easterly sea breeze has kicked in now so it looks like 26.1C is our maximum for the day. It's smashed the April record by a whole 2.1C and is a mere 14.7C above the 1981-2010 average for the 19th April. For some idea of how warm that is for this location at this time of the year. In the last 38 years there have only been 9 days warmer than this before 15th June!
  8. Indeed, quite a shock to the system. We had a max of 6.7C last Thursday and are up to 25.9C so far today. Not quite up to the 0 to 38C you mentioned in Oklahoma yesterday, but pretty unusual for the UK.
  9. Up to 25.8C now! 1.8C above the old record and its only just after 1pm! This is outrageous!
  10. The April record has already gone here just after midday! Currently 24.2C beating the old record of 24.0C set in 2011.
  11. Already up to 21.3C here and there's next to no wind meaning we have a good shot at record warmest April day.
  12. Indeed, it's a strange anomaly, even more so when you consider that to find the next day to beat that 16th April record of 29.4C you have to go all the way to 16th May! My post above has been amended as we've now hit 23.2C, making it the second warmest and only 0.8C from the record. Quite a warm day, being its 11.2C above average for this point in the month!
  13. We seem to be able to get close to or beat records at a canter at the moment. Today's maximum of 23.2C is the 2nd warmest here in 38 years and the minimum of 12.6C was the 3rd warmest in the same period. Its even more remarkable when you consider we're only a mid-month and have just come out of a long spell of below average temperatures. There's a moderate chance of the record of 24.0C set in 2011 going tomorrow too, just two days into the warm spell.
  14. September was pretty average, but October was extremely warm, especially mid-month when Hurricane Ophelia dragged in very warm uppers. We recorded 20.8C on the 16th October, the latest day in the year to do so. Ironically, despite all the calls of a long winter, with us potentially reaching 20C this week its actually one of the shortest periods between last and first 20C days on record. Ill have to check, but I imagine only 2011-2012 beats it.
  15. As mentioned before, the 1990s were abnormally sunny and this skews the average significantly. The summers of the 2010s have been on average quite dull so far, but expecting 600 hours of sunshine per summer is almost always going to lead to disappointment. The 1990s had 6 summers with 600hours or more sun at Heathrow, but it only happened 16 times in the other 47 years. Basically they happen on about 1 in 3 summers and we've already had two since 2013. The current period of duller summers is almost identical to the 1977-1988 period, which averaged just 19 hours per summer more than 2007-2017. If anything we've just reverted to 'normal'.
  16. What is it with April these days? 10.3C by the 21st would put us within 0.3C of the 1865 10.6C record which stood for 142 years but was then broken in 2007 and again in 2011. This despite a rather cool start. All months either side (January, February, March, May and June) have records that haven't been broken in 102, 239, 61, 185 and 172 years. Its quite strange we keep getting these record (or near to) Aprils when no other month in the first half of the year has managed it. All six of the months in the second half of the year have broken records since 1994 though. There's been a definite trend for more potent warm spells locally too. From 1980-2001, just five Aprils reached 20C here, yet 9 of the next 16 Aprils managed it.
  17. Its a bit of a risky pattern though. If the blocking holds you can get something very dry, warm and sunny. On the other hand, after Scandi blocking early on you could get this sort of summer...
  18. Another 12.8mm of rain so far today, meaning we're already at 94% of the average for the whole month. We've had 90% of the expected rainfall for spring and we're not even half way through yet. A telling stat is we haven't had more than 48 hours without any precipitation since 6th December now! The grass is growing like mad and it can't be cut. It's been a wet 12 months too. The rolling 12 month rainfall total is 120% of average at nearly 800mm.
  19. 1986 didn't reach it until 1st May. The max in March was 14.0C and 17.0C in April. The first 15 days of April only reached double figures twice and from 1st January - 15th April it only reached 10C 26 times. Just to put it into perspective!
  20. Its been poor in recent years yes, but I think its the case that due to the 1989-2006 period being anomalously sunny in the summer months and that feeding fully into the latest average, things look much worse than they are. Indeed, using the Metoffice figures for sunshine hours at Heathrow in summer you get: 1961-1990: 579.8hrs 1971-2000: 603.1hrs 1981-2010: 608.7hrs The decadal averages are: 1960s: 559.7hrs 1970s: 585.7hrs 1980s: 584.5hrs 1990s: 647.4hrs 2000s: 597.6hrs 2010s: 534.2hrs Certainly the summers since 2008 have been poor (as the 2010s decadal average reflects), but the 2007-2012 run of six dull summers is very similar indeed to the 1977-1982 period. The period 1961-1994 only saw 10 summers surpass the current 1981-2010 average, which is the same number as in the 1989-2006 period. Basically its almost definitely a normal period of 'dull' summers, but seeming much worse due to the unusually sunny 1990s. I suspect the 1991-2020 average in a few years will be rather more similar to those preceding the 1981-2010 average as the sunny 1990s are balanced out by the duller 2010s.
  21. August hasn't been that bad everywhere in recent years. There hasn't been any very hot ones, but several have been drier, sunnier and warmer than average. Certainly here, 2009, 2013 and 2016 all produced Augusts that were drier, sunnier and warmer than average. August 2007 was about average temperature-wise, but was very dry and sunny which was very welcome after that awful June and July. It has certainly stood out for lack of hot days though, we haven't hit above 27.0C since August 2007. Nevertheless, most Augusts since 2007 have had plenty of warm, pleasant days into the low 20s. Even 2012 in that dire summer managed 23 out of 31 days with a temperature above 20C. Last August was similar, with 24 out of 31 days hitting 20C or more. I struggle to call months like that poor when you have examples like 1986 when it only reached 20C four times all month!
  22. There was a maximum of just 25.0C here that day, as the wind was a fairly strong onshore south-easterly which supressed temperatures. Its a common theme in hot spells this close to the coast. We usually record the warmest days just as the hot spell is breaking down as the wind tends to switch offshore - much like the example WH posts above. In the spell in July 2015, the 4th was actually warmer for us with a max of 26.3C, as the wind switched to the south-west.
  23. Down the road here closer to the coast we haven't hit 30C since 15th August 2001, so getting on for 17 years now. The lack of extremes during the summer months has been bizarre though. Since 2011, the record maximum temps here (since 1980) have been broken in January (2015), March (2012), April (2011), May (2017), September (2016), October (2011), November (2015) and December (2015). February came close in 2012, but in the summer months the records have now stood unbroken for 18, 22 and 28 years. That said, we've still had some warm summers, only 4 of the last 11 have seen below average mean temps and even those were no more than 0.4C below normal. Only two of those summers since 2006 were duller than normal and four were wetter than normal. So not too bad in this neck of the woods.
  24. I wouldn't call it average SS. Here the max today was 15.6C which is almost 5C above the 1981-2010 mean for the time of year.
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