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The last thing we need is a Scandi high bringing cloud from the North Sea and 8C here in the east. We've had enough cloud to last the entire Spring already!

An anomaly over the remaining 9 months of +1.9-2.0C would be required to hit 12C for the year. It doesn't sound ridiculous until you lay out the months with a uniform anomaly: April: 11.0C May: 13.9C June: 16.6C July: 18.8C August: 18.6C September: 16.2C October: 12.8C November: 9.3C December 6.9C That would be an 11.0C Spring (0.7C above current record), 18.0C summer (0.3C above) and 12.8C Autumn (0.2C above). At this point you realise the mountain we'd have to climb. If that did happen we'd be in real trouble!

raz.org.rain it's probably likely that both are the new normal: alternating mild, dull, wet spells and hot, dry, sunny spells.. Its the rest which seems to slowly becoming extinct.

If you want to hear a stat that sums up 2023 and 2024: just looking back through my records and since 7th Sep 2023 there have been only 45 out of 213 days when it hasn't rained at some point. Today is not one of them. Heavy showers have dumped 3.8mm. The first 7 days of April have seen 70% of the average monthly rainfall. We have not had a 100% clear day during daylight hours since 17th January. Grim!

Weather-history Figures from Hull East Park from 1938: January: 47.0mm February: 22.9mm March: 5.3mm April: 7.9mm May: (1st-26th): 18.5mm 1929 had perhaps an even more impressive dry spell: 1st February - 31st October 1929: 295.0mm 1912-1913 is an example of four wet seasons on the trot followed by an exceptionally dry summer: Summer 1912: 301.8mm Autumn 1912: 218.2mm Winter 1913: 167.8mm Spring 1913: 156.5mm Summer 1913: 42.8mm (just 9mm more than 1976) Perhaps we'll have a similar year to the last one. We can but hope!

5 days into April and 51% of the monthly rainfall has fallen already. It would seem certain we're going to have a 10th consecutive wetter than average month. Like February and March it has started off dull too, with 9 hours of sunshine in the first 5 days. A change please!

summer blizzard This is almost certainly due to the dull weather as maxima have been well above average, just as much as the minima: January: Min +0.7C, Max +0.9C February: Min +3.8C, Max +4.0C March: Min +2.6C, Max +2.5C (Figures from Hadley)

kold weather Its 11.1C required to beat 2007. The warmest first 5 months on record is actually an easier hit. That requires April and May to have 23.0 cumulative degrees between them, so a 10.5C April and 12.5C May would do it. I say easier, but it would make Spring 10.4C and also the warmest on record!

WYorksWeather Agreed its too early, but as April is a warming month it would be exceptionally difficult to see us coming much below 9-10C if we're already at 11C mid-month. It would take a very cold second half. The signs are there already that it's going to be well above average, it just depends how this pattern breaks or even if it continues. If we get a whole month of this, it'll gradually warm and we'll finish in the 11s. If we get a cold spell, 9s maybe. If we get a plume, who knows how high?

MP-R The warmer nights thing that keeps cropping up is a red herring too. March had an anomaly of +2.5C and that was +2.4C on the maxima and +2.6C on the minima. Its just been consistently above average with no great extremes apart from perhaps mid-January.

I think what has been rather notable this year so far is how warm we've managed to be despite pretty bad synoptics. It kind of makes you wonder what sort of CET values we'd be hitting if we had perfect synoptics. Its certainly looking like we'll be around the 11C mark mid-month, so at least a top 20 finish looks very likely at that point. A warm spell in the second half and we'll be threatening the record which has already fallen twice in the last 17 years.

CongletonHeat Panels these days work very well even without direct sun. Even in overcast conditions we can be generating 1-2kW at the moment. Today made 15.8kWh alone and over 11kWh exported so a negative bill day despite the crap weather.

raz.org.rain All of the best recent summers have had neutral ENSO conditions for the June, July, August quarter, aside from 2022 which was a weak La Nina: 1976: +0.2 from a strong La Nina 1983: +0.3 from a very strong El Nino 1989: -0.3 from a strong La Nina 1995: -0.2 from a moderate El Nino 1996: -0.3 from a moderate La Nina 2003: +0.1 from a moderate El Nino 2005: -0.1 from a weak El Nino 2006: +0.1 from a weak La Nina 2013: -0.4 from neutral conditions 2018: +0.1 from a weak La Nina 2022: -0.8 from a moderate La Nina Quite a strong correlation. Poorer summers tend to cluster around El Nino or La Nina conditions but there is not a great correlation either way (1988, 2007 and 2011 were all La Nina but then 2012 was neutral). Its one factor of many to consider, but having a neutral state cant hurt it seems. The current forecast for JJA this year does actually suggest close to neutral aswell.

Its a classic southerly-diving jet pattern with a trough stuck over us, chilly north-westerlies into Iberia and then southerlies drawn up into eastern Europe. Its a rubbish pattern for us as we often get a cut-off low stuck over us that slowly fills unless things move.

It is now the second wettest 9 month period on record here. July 2023 - March 2024 has seen 766.8mm of rain. The only period to record more in a 9 month period since 1980 was June 2019 - February 2020 which saw 809.8mm. It then went bone dry after that though, with just 34.2mm in the next three months, which will not happen this time by the looks! For reference, the annual 1991-2020 average here is 659.8mm. Its worth noting the driest 9 month period is slap bang in between these two, which was November 2021 - July 2022 with just 293.6mm.

WYorksWeather The same applies to home batteries too. We got 12.25kWh of LiFePO4 batteries and solar PV fitted in early 2023 and back then they were about £1050 per 2.5kWh and are now about £600. At these sort of prices they can make a huge difference domestically with quite a short payback time. In 2023 we generated 4700kWh, exported 1700kWh and stored/used over 3000kWh of it. Our yearly electricity cost was -£23, saving £1279 in total. This included being able to charge the battery up cheaply from 2-5am in the winter months. You can get a 4kW PV system and 5kW of batteries for under £6k now, so the payback time is very short. If every house had similar it would be a game-changer. Our grid usage was 1245kWh in 2023 and with the 1700kWh we sent out we were basically nearly -500kWh for the year. If governments were serious about net zero there has to be an incentive for people rather than taxing things to change behaviour. If you say to people, we'll give you a £2000 grant towards PV and battery and it'll payback in under 5 years and save you £100s per year on bills, people would take it up. If you say "switch to an EV or we'll tax your petrol/diesel car to oblivion" then the response would be hostile.

Derecho If we get to 13th April at 10.6C, then we only need 11.8C for the remaining days of the Spring for it to be the warmest on record (assuming an 8.1C March). It'll be quite a confusing Spring if that happens, especially if it's dull and wet overall.

LetItSnow! An average March that's 10th warmest in the entire CET series The year seems to be following the post-El Nino script similar to 1998 and 2017. Both had average/cool Aprils and very warm Mays before the Junes diverged.

Metwatch 2023 was better by miles here. Both were wet, but 2020 had just 97 hours of sunshine. It was the dullest of any summer month in this area in records back to 1980 and the only one below 100 hours. It was atrocious.

Roban The farmer across from us hs had similar issues. The fields remain with nothing in the ground as it has been relentlessly wet and the ground partially flooded. There were similar issues in 2019/20 but different in that it went from flooded to parched in the space of two months. I think he just settled on turnips that year and got them up in the November.

Scorcher We've really caught up in the last two weeks aswell. Up to 91 hours to the 29th. The average is 123 hours so with today and tomorrow we should at least reach 100 hours. below average but nothing like as bad as it was looking at mid-month.

baddie This day in 2012 was my wedding day. I couldnt believe our good luck as it was booked a year earlier, fully expecting rubbish weather. Instead it was clear, sunny and warm throughout. It couldnt have been better for the time of year.

8.8C and 74mm Pretty average all around. Tempted to go below average but that's almost certainly a bust these days!

This wasn't that special in this area, Hull recorded 15.0C and 17.8C on those dates. The spell in the middle of April was much more notable with 25.0C on the 15th April, a figure not breached again that year until the first week in July.

8.3C to the 22nd, so we're already 0.2C above the prediction based on the models two days ago posted by @Derecho above. We need about 7.2C in the remaining 9 days to finish on 8.0C.