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I think looking at analogue years based on temperature is flawed these days. 1989 had a CET mean of 16.4C and 2023 had a mean of 16.5C but they were vastly different summers. The upcoming summer may have a CET of 17-18C like the forecasts suggest, but that doesn't mean it will be another 1976 or 2018. It could just as well be another 2023 but with temperatures 0.5-1.0C warmer but with the same crap weather. Its difficult to find any summers that are 17C+ and wetter than average as they haven't happened yet. However with the background warming taken into account, such summers that were 16C and wetter than average not long ago are probably the closest fit to this, but with temperatures a little higher. I think it'd be a good bet that 2024 will be one of these two: warm and wet (like 2023) or very warm and dry (aka 2018/2022). I think getting any summer (wet or dry) much below average (16C) is probably difficult now and sub-15C (1C below average) out of the question.

SunSean In my own figures on the most recent 30 years (1994-2023), the first 5 days of March are actually colder than any point in February. Its a rather odd anomaly.

Weather-historyIt came in at just 21 here, the 5th lowest in the last 40 years. it was also the wettest since 1980 for us and the first winter in 40 years with more than 150% of average rainfall.

Its worth noting the 30 year average (1995-2024) is now 5.4C compared to 3.8C for the 1961-1990 average. The 1961-1990 average for March was 5.7C!

Its confirmed as 7.8C. Winter in 5th place at 6.5C.

Mild, wet and dull all winter and as soon as it hits 1st March all of the models start showing northern blocking and easterlies, but not potent enough to be anything but cold and still dull. The weather really is trolling us now. You can almost guarantee it will come to fruition.

Slightly warmer and wetter than average, but cooler and drier than February: 7.6C and 77mm

Is there any information on the storm in the Med at the moment? It looks quite "Medicane-y": Wrong time of the year I know, but impressive nonetheless.

Yesterday came in at 5.1C, so well above the prediction again (3.7C). 5.9C required for the remaining 6 days to beat the record, I believe.

It's likely as the climate warms the land will warm more quickly than the ocean so it means continental flows in summer will be more extreme. This is what we are sort of seeing in recent years. Apart from that, for the other 90% of the time in the UK, higher SSTs mean more intense storms, heavier rainfall, more flooding and in winter more moderation of cold sources so less snow. The jury is out whether it influences synoptics and makes westerlies more likely, but it seems that way. In winter at least. Overall, patterns seem to get stuck in place more now. For summers, it generally doesn't change the weather on the ground. 13C and raining in July just becomes 15C and raining, with overnight mins proportionally higher. However hot spells will be more extreme, though not necessarily more frequent at first. I dont think we'll know if this is the new normal for a few years yet. It could be a blip in an otherwise gradual change, much like the 2007-2012 period.

We actually managed a min of -0.1C this morning so at least this won't be our first February without an air frost. The record high low minimum is -0.5C though so still on course for that. We had to wait 36 days since the last air frost on the 19th January, which gives an idea of how mild it has been. The lowest last night was -5.6C in Aboyne.

SunnyG In no way in any universe can this winter be described as decent. It has been the worst winter I can remember. Relentless wind, rain, cloud and flooding. The best part of it was mid-January when it was actually dry and sunny.

Earthshine A summer 0.7C warmer than 1976 and 1.0C warmer than 2018 would be a bit alarming!

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland Only once you get to about 21st May do most days have records above 30C. I think these days its probably possible in the last few days of April but that would be pushing it. It would most likely require perfect synoptics, cloudless skies, no wind and well above average SSTs to do it. 26.5C is the highest in the first half of April. Most days in March are 21-22C before it picks up at the end. Its often easy to forget Spring is quite a cold season. The average maximum doesn't hit 15C in most places outside of the south-east until mid-May.

raz.org.rain "Milder weather" while the February CET is sat 0.8C above the current record. We've already been in the milder weather for 5 weeks now.

damianslaw A very mild March. Only 11 have ever been 8.0C or above!

Any chance we can discuss summer in the summer thread and leave this for Spring?

baddie I'm always surprised when 2014 is considered a decent summer. It was the second coolest summer of the last decade and cooler than all of the last 8. It was also widely above average on rainfall for large parts of England and north-east Scotland. Just about the only thing going for it was it was quite sunny. For here, 2014 has a summer index of 230, which is less than both 2021 (231) and 2023 (244)

CryoraptorA303 the precipitation anomaly maps show a wet June and July though, so I suspect it won't necessarily be Euro High setup that would dominate. The anomalies show June and July both 1-2C above average but wetter than normal and then a less hot but drier August. It's worth noting a 1-2C above average summer on that is a 17+C CET summer so it is suggesting a close to record warm summer but with average or above rainfall. Our climate has warmed a lot but I struggle to see it unless that rainfall is from thunderstorms and not fronts.

It looks like we only need about 6.9C in the remaining 11 days to beat the record. Today and tomorrow look milder than that so that figure will reduce.

Another day where it was supposed to be sunny all day, but by half 11 its completely cloudy. Just what does it take to get a clear day in this country?

Scorcher Dullest October - February periods here since 1980: 1992-93: 299hrs 2023-24: 299hrs (to 18th Feb) 1982-83: 300hrs 1990-91: 322hrs 2020-21: 323hrs 1993-93: 327hrs 1997-98: 328hrs 1984-85: 329hrs 1995-96: 332hrs 2002-03: 332hrs I suspect it'll end up somewhere in this list. So depending on whether it beats 1990-91, it could be the worst in 30 years.

WYorksWeather im guessing its the highest as before the new February and December records were set in 2019 the theoretical maximum total was 56.3 (18.3, 18.3 and 19.7). All three winter record maximums have been set in the last 5 years now.

johncam We're on our second long stint without an air frost this winter. The first was 38 days from 7th December - 13th January and the second is 20th January to now (currently 26 days). The mean minimum temperature for us is at 5.1C at the moment, 0.6C above the record set in 1998.

Summer Sun 16.1C in December, 19.9C in January and 18.1C in February. That's quite a set of maximums for "winter".