reef

Awful here this morning. Cloudy, raining, a persistent 20-30mph NNW wind gusting to 35-40mph and just 8.1C.

Absolutely loved that month. Here it was the sunniest on record with 248 hours. Only 12 individual months all year round have been sunnier. It was the frostiest by far aswell, with 14 air frosts, which is more than any January, February or March since 1996. The mean minimum temperature was just 0.5C - 4.0C below the 1991-2020 average. Six days also saw snow falling, another record. It was our second driest April with 2.4mm of rain, just slightly more than 2007 (1.5mm), with just 5 days seeing it fall. For us, it was actually colder than 1986 with a mean temp of 5.7C (-3.0C), so the coldest on record and colder than 6 of the last 8 Februaries.

Where on Earth has this wind come from? We've just had a gust of 47mph which is actually the highest April gust in this neck of the woods since 2002. Its consistently 30-40mph aswell. Apart from that its a classic sunshine and showers day, albeit a bit chilly.

In Absence of True Seasons Still haven't hit 20C here yet and it doesn't look likely this April now. However looking through when years hit 20C first it isn't a bad thing here: 2012: 28th March 2021: 30th March 2011: 6th April 2020: 8th April 2007: 15th April 1995: 3rd May 1989: 4th May 2003: 4th May 2006: 4th May 2022: 14th May I think I'd rather it was in the second group!

Oh look its cloudy and raining again.

The forecast has proven totally wrong here again. It was supposed to be cloudy with sunny spells with it gradually clearing in the afternoon. Instead it was cloudy with a few sunny spells in the morning and now totally overcast. 34.5 hours of sunshine so far this month. This grey rubbish is relentless. Not a single clear day since 17th January.

WYorksWeather urgh, not another June with constant easterlies. We had 14 hours of sunshine in the first 10 days here last year. At least its the CFS so it'll probably be wrong.

richie3846 Unfortunately that isn't the case here. In March we had 45.8mm of rain but the first 9 days of April have already seen 36.8mm (and counting, as its raining now). We're already at 80% of the monthly average just 9 days in, so its almost definitely going to be wetter than average for a 10th consecutive month here.

Sun Chaser I can never understand this talk of "balance". The weather does no such thing. On temperatures for example, we've had just one month more than 1C below the 1991-2020 average since May 2021 on the CET, but 19 have been more than 1C above. If this were to balance out then we'd be looking at an extended average or below average period being due. Likewise for sunshine and rain: 2022 was widely the sunniest year on record and this extended into 2023, so you could argue the current weather is "balance" to that. Likewise for rainfall - 2021 into most of 2022 was one of the driest periods on record, so you could argue the wetness of 2023-24 is balancing that out. In reality the weather just does what it does, though in a more volatile manner these days it seems. I think most would rather just have variety like there used to be, rather than constantly one type of weather for months on end. I suppose a dreadful thought is that this is what our climate is now - extended periods of dry and wet, dull and sunny, but mild/warm throughout. It would be nice to just have some dry, settled and sunny weather at this point. I don't think many would disagree with that!

The longest run of sunnier than average months here is May 2018 - April 2019: May 2018: 280hrs (139%) June 2018: 241hrs (131%) July 2018: 267hrs (134%) August 2018: 190hrs (103%) September 2018: 158hrs (109%) October 2018: 144hrs (133%) November 2018: 79hrs (116%) December 2018: 63hrs (121%) January 2019: 74hrs (130%) February 2019: 137hrs (171%) March 2019: 155hrs (138%) April 2019: 199hrs (128%) Total: 1987hrs (128%) Almost 2000 hours in a year is impressive here. 2003 as a year just missed out as July was 100% of normal. Our sunniest full year on record was 2022 with 1921 hours. 2003 had 1842 hours.

WYorksWeather And it has: Surface air temperature for March 2024 CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU Warmest March on record. 1.68C above the pre-industrial average. A large proportion of the Atlantic is still the warmest on record despite El Nino waning.

The last thing we need is a Scandi high bringing cloud from the North Sea and 8C here in the east. We've had enough cloud to last the entire Spring already!

An anomaly over the remaining 9 months of +1.9-2.0C would be required to hit 12C for the year. It doesn't sound ridiculous until you lay out the months with a uniform anomaly: April: 11.0C May: 13.9C June: 16.6C July: 18.8C August: 18.6C September: 16.2C October: 12.8C November: 9.3C December 6.9C That would be an 11.0C Spring (0.7C above current record), 18.0C summer (0.3C above) and 12.8C Autumn (0.2C above). At this point you realise the mountain we'd have to climb. If that did happen we'd be in real trouble!

raz.org.rain it's probably likely that both are the new normal: alternating mild, dull, wet spells and hot, dry, sunny spells.. Its the rest which seems to slowly becoming extinct.

If you want to hear a stat that sums up 2023 and 2024: just looking back through my records and since 7th Sep 2023 there have been only 45 out of 213 days when it hasn't rained at some point. Today is not one of them. Heavy showers have dumped 3.8mm. The first 7 days of April have seen 70% of the average monthly rainfall. We have not had a 100% clear day during daylight hours since 17th January. Grim!

Weather-history Figures from Hull East Park from 1938: January: 47.0mm February: 22.9mm March: 5.3mm April: 7.9mm May: (1st-26th): 18.5mm 1929 had perhaps an even more impressive dry spell: 1st February - 31st October 1929: 295.0mm 1912-1913 is an example of four wet seasons on the trot followed by an exceptionally dry summer: Summer 1912: 301.8mm Autumn 1912: 218.2mm Winter 1913: 167.8mm Spring 1913: 156.5mm Summer 1913: 42.8mm (just 9mm more than 1976) Perhaps we'll have a similar year to the last one. We can but hope!

5 days into April and 51% of the monthly rainfall has fallen already. It would seem certain we're going to have a 10th consecutive wetter than average month. Like February and March it has started off dull too, with 9 hours of sunshine in the first 5 days. A change please!

summer blizzard This is almost certainly due to the dull weather as maxima have been well above average, just as much as the minima: January: Min +0.7C, Max +0.9C February: Min +3.8C, Max +4.0C March: Min +2.6C, Max +2.5C (Figures from Hadley)

kold weather Its 11.1C required to beat 2007. The warmest first 5 months on record is actually an easier hit. That requires April and May to have 23.0 cumulative degrees between them, so a 10.5C April and 12.5C May would do it. I say easier, but it would make Spring 10.4C and also the warmest on record!

WYorksWeather Agreed its too early, but as April is a warming month it would be exceptionally difficult to see us coming much below 9-10C if we're already at 11C mid-month. It would take a very cold second half. The signs are there already that it's going to be well above average, it just depends how this pattern breaks or even if it continues. If we get a whole month of this, it'll gradually warm and we'll finish in the 11s. If we get a cold spell, 9s maybe. If we get a plume, who knows how high?

MP-R The warmer nights thing that keeps cropping up is a red herring too. March had an anomaly of +2.5C and that was +2.4C on the maxima and +2.6C on the minima. Its just been consistently above average with no great extremes apart from perhaps mid-January.

I think what has been rather notable this year so far is how warm we've managed to be despite pretty bad synoptics. It kind of makes you wonder what sort of CET values we'd be hitting if we had perfect synoptics. Its certainly looking like we'll be around the 11C mark mid-month, so at least a top 20 finish looks very likely at that point. A warm spell in the second half and we'll be threatening the record which has already fallen twice in the last 17 years.

CongletonHeat Panels these days work very well even without direct sun. Even in overcast conditions we can be generating 1-2kW at the moment. Today made 15.8kWh alone and over 11kWh exported so a negative bill day despite the crap weather.

raz.org.rain All of the best recent summers have had neutral ENSO conditions for the June, July, August quarter, aside from 2022 which was a weak La Nina: 1976: +0.2 from a strong La Nina 1983: +0.3 from a very strong El Nino 1989: -0.3 from a strong La Nina 1995: -0.2 from a moderate El Nino 1996: -0.3 from a moderate La Nina 2003: +0.1 from a moderate El Nino 2005: -0.1 from a weak El Nino 2006: +0.1 from a weak La Nina 2013: -0.4 from neutral conditions 2018: +0.1 from a weak La Nina 2022: -0.8 from a moderate La Nina Quite a strong correlation. Poorer summers tend to cluster around El Nino or La Nina conditions but there is not a great correlation either way (1988, 2007 and 2011 were all La Nina but then 2012 was neutral). Its one factor of many to consider, but having a neutral state cant hurt it seems. The current forecast for JJA this year does actually suggest close to neutral aswell.

Its a classic southerly-diving jet pattern with a trough stuck over us, chilly north-westerlies into Iberia and then southerlies drawn up into eastern Europe. Its a rubbish pattern for us as we often get a cut-off low stuck over us that slowly fills unless things move.