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reef last won the day on April 28 2012

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About reef

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    Hedon, East Yorkshire

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  1. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    The 10.51 is the average of the months to 2dp here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2017 3.95 + 6.09 + 8.67 + 8.87 + 13.21 + 16.04 + 16.77 / 7 = 10.51.
  2. Autumn thoughts

    That high pressure to the north-west of the US has been displaced northwards semi-permanently in recent winters and there it is yet again. It serves to direct cold air from the Canadian arctic southwards which then hits the warm Atlantic out of the east coast and fires up the jet. We then get the usual SW-NE line of low pressures and resultant high pressure over Europe. Its also caused the Californian drought so I imagine they would be happy to see the back of it too!
  3. 57.4mm of rain on Tuesday in the end. Wettest summers here since 1980: 2007: 353.1mm 1997: 290.0mm 1982: 282.7mm 2017: 263.6mm (so far) Already the 4th wettest in 37 years (and most likely since 1963, looking at the local figures).
  4. Heavy rain from 6am this morning with a brief break for a few hours during the afternoon before the rain resumed this evening. Now up to 51.2mm since midnight making it comfortably the wettest day here since the floods on 25th June 2007. Cold too with a max of 14.6C. Some localised flooding at the moment but nothing major. The stream at the end of the street has raised by a metre though.
  5. The dreadful weather today continues here. After a brief dry spell this afternoon we're back to heavy rain again. We're now up to 43.2mm since midnight. It has been cold too with a max of 14.6C.
  6. Today is utterly dire. Heavy rain all day so far and a total already of 30.6mm. This summer is turning into a very wet one in this location, June was 200% of normal, July was 130% of normal and August is already at 80% and climbing rapidly: Wettest summers here since 1980: 2007: 353.1mm 1997: 290.0mm 1982: 282.7mm 1980: 262.8mm 1992: 262.2mm 2004: 259.0mm 2012: 252.4mm 2017: 236.6mm (so far)
  7. 15.8C to the 6th 0.3C below the 1961-1990 average 1.2C below the 1981-2010 average http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
  8. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    Confirmed as 16.8C, 0.1C above the 1981-2010 average: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat August only needs to be 16.4C (equal to the 1981-2010 average) for this to be the warmest summer since 2006.
  9. 1991-2017 averages as they stand with the figure in brackets in comparison to the 1981-2010 averages : JAN: 4.6C (+0.2C) FEB: 4.8C (+0.4C) MAR: 6.8C (+0.2C) APR: 8.9C (+0.4C) MAY: 11.9C (+0.2C) JUN: 14.6C (+0.1C) JUL: 16.7C (equal) AUG: 16.5C (+0.1C) SEP: 14.2C (+0.2C) OCT: 10.9C (+0.2C) NOV: 7.4C (+0.3C) DEC: 4.9C (+0.3C) Winter: 4.8C (+0.3C) Spring: 9.2C (+0.3C) Summer: 15.9C (equal) Autumn: 10.9C (+0.3C) So on average the summer months aren't any worse, but there's a definite trend of less of / little increase compared to other months / seasons. I would imagine the reason we see such weird patterns (like the warmer 90s summers) is because natural cycles affect things as well as background warming. Indeed, the 1988-2008 period saw mean temperatures much higher than background warming might suggest, which could mean recent years have simply returned to trend. Winters on average flipped in a similar way post-1988, but dropped back between 2008-2013, before warming again in recent years.
  10. Yes, up until mid-July it was pretty warm here too. Despite the last couple of weeks not being as good, July still finished with 22 out of 31 days topping 20C and a mean max of 21.0C. Compare that with 2011 where only 11 days managed it and its easy to see its not been that bad. We're actually on course for the 3rd warmest summer since 1976 here. We have had quite a lot of rain though (199.2mm so far), which gives the strange possibility that we might also record the wettest since 2007 at the same time.
  11. Finally just had the first thunderstorm of the year! Only rained for a short while, but dropped from 19.0C to 14.9C in 10mins and gave us 4.0mm with a max rainrate of 131.0mm/hr. Lots of thunder though, almost constant for a while.
  12. There's a lot of heat over Europe and it wouldnt take much to bring it here (even briefly), so I'm thinking warmer than average: 17.1C
  13. Little bug things inside my monitor, annoying gits. Must try not to accidentally squish any or they'll be there forever.

    1. Paul


      Ha, one has died (not of squishing!) in mine, going to have to take it apart to get it out!

  14. Autumn thoughts

    Better to get that out of the way in Autumn and hope it doesn't last through winter too. Nothing is more grim than a cool Autumn (especially November) and then a switch to above average +NAO setup come December.
  15. Autumn thoughts

    Seasonal threads are usually opened on the second week of the second month of the preceding season, so although it feels early, its actually isn't. The spring one was closed temporarily for a couple of weeks as someone opened it on 3rd January.