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reef

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reef last won the day on April 28 2012

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About reef

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    Hedon, East Yorkshire

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  1. Looking forward to this, its about the best possible setup for us here. At least after 5 years of waiting for some measurable lying snow we're going to get some payback! There could be a chance we'll get record low maximums for February and March too. Havent had a February ice day for over 10 years!
  2. So, just on the last 3 pages alone that's 32 posts that have had to be removed for being off-topic. That's despite three warnings from the team asking nicely for people to think before they post. This thread is very busy and people are understandably very excited, but please do us (and everyone) a favour and stick to the models! Thanks
  3. The ensembles are at least looking good still for the 12z GFS. The operational run is pretty much one of the warmer options from the 28th. The scatter does increase the further north you go though, showing the models are struggling with the position of the high pressure after the 27th.
  4. Its still an extremely good run, but by T+180 the high pressure is already retrogressing up towards Greenland. We're still all in around -12C 850hPa air, but the winds are more south-easterly by that point with the main cold pool aiming itself towards the continent rather than us. Its a subtle change compared to the 06z GFS, but would have large implications for the amount and duration of the heavy snow showers. I think the best way to describe this run is good but not great.
  5. The GFS, ICON and GEM are good for us, but the UKMO and ECM less so. The differences are slight, but they have a huge effect on what weather we see up here. This chart from the GFS at T+168 for example is good for us. The flow is ENE with a long sea track, pressure is sub-1030hPa and the greens and blues indicate the atmosphere is unstable. Couple that with 850hPa temps of nearly -14C and we have the recipe for lots of convection and very heavy snow showers with significant accumulations: The ECM on the other hand here at T+192 from this morning is much worse: There's less isobars over us, so less wind and higher temperatures in the sunshine. We're under oranges so the atmosphere is more stable and pressure is above 1035hPa. In this situation the 850hPa temp is still -12C or so, but convection would be weak and temperatures in the sunshine would creep up to 2-3C. We'd get a few flurries, but little in the way of accumulations. The difference is subtle, but it has huge ramifications for our weather up here. My main problem is, generally you wouldn't bet against the ECM and UKMO at this range. Hopefully tonight's ECM is better.
  6. I don't like this trend to gradually move the high southwards. If it keeps happening as we approach the time, our region could well be cold, dry and sunny with very occasional flurries. ECM has 850hPa temps of -12C or so, but we're under 1036hPa air pressure and the atmosphere looks pretty stable. We'd be lucky to get a few flurries and temps of 2-3C by day in such a setup as the convection in the North Sea would hit a cap and remain pretty weak. If this one fails, I give up!
  7. The reliability of the Davis VP2 is pretty good nowadays, aside from the rubbish FARS fans! I haven't had a failure (touch wood) since 2011 now. Back then I had a supercap failure in my anemometer transmitter (2010), an actual anemometer itself go (2011) and an old SHT11 sensor go (also 2011). I've burned through four FARS fans though - some lasting less than a couple of months. These days I too am using the updated SHT31 sensor, though no humidity issues on mine and a photocopier fan wired to the mains at 9 volts running 24/7 (running 3 years solid now). Its probably the best setup you can get without mega money. As for the current charts, they're pure filth for this area. They are literally the best setup you can get for us. Fingers crossed!
  8. Yes, this is a pretty dry and cold run for most in England, with Scotland being the focus of the intense cold and heavy snow. Still, at T+200 its just good to get cold air coming in, details will come later.
  9. The 12z GFS run shows how annoying little shortwaves forming can delay the cold moving west. It'll probably still be alright eventually on this run, but that little feature off Norway delays things 24-36 hours.
  10. Now the 12z runs are coming out this thread will no doubt get very busy, so if you could be so kind as to consider which thread your post should be in then it will make things more enjoyable for all and save the team work removing posts. For discussion on today's Earthquake: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/47470-earthquake-activity-thread/ SSW related cold spell discussion: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/ Model moans and ramps thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/ Many thanks.
  11. Earthquake? 5.0 in Wales

    As mentioned by Nick above, we have an Earthquake thread already, so closing this. Cheers
  12. Flu prospects this winter

    When I caught flu in June 2017 it was actually from visiting the GP for a simple blood pressure check. I have no idea why people choose to go and willingly sit in a waiting room, touching door handles, coughing, sneezing and spreading it to other people when they don't need too. As you say, the GP can't actually do anything for them and if they had a genuine risk of complications they'd probably be at A&E anyway. I've only had flu in 2002, 2008 and 2017 and its totally unmistakeable from the common cold - 4 days in bed and a cough afterwards for 8 weeks too.
  13. Although you can't predict exactly at this range, today's models have so far told us quite a lot. Firstly, there's been a definite trend for the high pressure which was supposed to be in situ over the UK after the weekend to be pushed forwards in time and be much weaker when it finally appears. The next trend is for the Atlantic to be much stronger with the high eventually establishing further to the east and leaving us in more of a southerly or south-easterly flow: The GFS 06z/12z Op runs and ECM 12z have all shown this trend now. It has the effect of preventing a first bite of the cherry and leaving us again looking into FI for another go. Beyond that we can't really tell much. Even at T+144 the ECM and GFS would give vastly different weather on the ground under flabby high pressure: ECM has an injection of polar maritime air beforehand, giving sunny days and frosty nights, whereas the GFS has warmer uppers and potentially more cloud trapped in the high. Depending on which of these occurs, the month-end CET could be massively different. It all depends how the SSW has affected things. There has been a clear trend this winter for the polar vortex over Canada to be utterly relentless. The question is whether over the next few days the models show this to still be the case this time, or whether it will finally relent enough to give us our cold spell...eventually.
  14. So basically its not a graphical issue, it just looks worse because it is worse. Less data and less resolution, a backwards step unfortunately.
  15. I can only echo what others here think about the new graphics. What needs to change: - Zoom in to the UK at bit, as Nick says above, do we really need to see 1000 miles of Atlantic and Sweden? - The place names cover large areas of the country and need to either go or be more transparent. - Its too hard to distinguish cloud / sunshine / rain / snow. A better contrast is needed. Another one is the temperature colour maps, which are a big loss, as are the coloured numbers (now just white with a dash of colour underneath). Just subtle things that make it easier to watch.
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